12z GFS Run. Both ECMWF and GFS have generally had the right idea with this (alleged) storm, keeping the heaviest snow bands south and east of the Twin Cities. Latest guidance is pushing the heavy snow even farther south, to the point where the immediate metro area may only pick up a couple inches of wet snow: coating - 1" far northern suburbs, maybe 3-4" far southern suburbs where a plowable accumulation is still possible. Over 10" may fall from Austin and Albert Lea to Rochester, Winona and La Crosse. So close...

Winter Storm Weather Advisory Now Posted for MSP Metro - Blizzard Warnings Southern Minnesota. The local NWS office has dialed back the watch to an advisory for the immediate metro area, but travel over southern Minnesota will still be very treacherous later tonight into Friday with heavy snow and high winds. MSP is on the northwestern edge of the snow shield - go a few hours south of St. Paul and it will look like prime time wintertime tomorrow.

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Southward shift of heaviest snow, but still plowable in MSP

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Snow Tracks South of Metro - Southern Minnesota Blizzard, Where No Travel Advised