Storm Risk Increases This Afternoon - Flash Flood Risk Central Minnesota
May 31, 2014 — 3:21pm
Growing Shower and Thunderstorm Risk. The line of showers and storms that has hovered over southwest, central and northeastern Minnesoeta much of the day continues to creep east, pushing a ripe environment for pop-up showers and heavier T-stoms into the metro area. The risk of hit-or-miss storms increases as the afternoon goes on, the best chance of a few downpours western and northern suburbs. After peaking in the mid-80s today I suspect Sunday will be cloudier with more numerous showers/storms as the front passes overhead. NWS Doppler radar at 12:26 PM.
* the area outlined in green from Olivia and St. Cloud to Mora and Duluth is under a mesoscale precipitation discussion - conditions are ripe for thunderstorms with rain falling at the rate of 1-2"/hour, capable of street and small stream flooding.
A Troubled Front. 1 km visible imagery at 12:30 PM shows cells mushrooming in the warm sector (with dew points in the mid and upper 60s providing plenty of fresh fuel). Winds aloft are light - the risk of severe storms is small, but there's a greater threat of repeated ("training") thunderstorms dropping some 2-5" rainfall amounts, especially over central Minnesota.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Skies brighten Thursday, a brief break before the next swirl of showers and T-storms arrives Friday into Saturday. Have a Plan B (indoors) for Saturday, but models hint at some sun on Sunday with low 80s. ECMWF guidance brings in more T-storms on Memorial Day. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
More showers & heavy T-storms rumble into Minnesota Wednesday; the drive home another slow-motion slog. After a brief break from puddles Thursday the next stormy swirl pushes more storms into town late Friday into Saturday; another 1-2 inches of rain may trigger minor flooding. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Enjoy the warmth and sunny skies Tuesday for as long as you can. Unfortunately, more storms look to work back in by the middle of the week, and chances exist right through the Memorial Day weekend. More on the rainy forecast, as well as making vodka from fog, in the blog! - D.J. Kayser
Well, that was amazing. It really was one of the best weeks of weather of the entire year. Weather Euphoria. And now comes the reality check with a few waves of heavy rain and T-storms. Models print out anywhere from 2-4" of rain over the next 2 weeks, along with summer-like dew points. Amazing how fast the weather can change at this latitude...
There's not much to say after a day like yesterday. It was as close to perfect as we'll ever come and today should be nearly as nice; a few degrees warmer and windier by afternoon. Today will be the last Chamber of Commerce-approved weather-day in sight; another wet week is shaping up - a few thunderstorms into the holiday weekend. Didn't see that coming...