Storm Risk Increases This Afternoon - Flash Flood Risk Central Minnesota
May 31, 2014 — 3:21pm
Growing Shower and Thunderstorm Risk. The line of showers and storms that has hovered over southwest, central and northeastern Minnesoeta much of the day continues to creep east, pushing a ripe environment for pop-up showers and heavier T-stoms into the metro area. The risk of hit-or-miss storms increases as the afternoon goes on, the best chance of a few downpours western and northern suburbs. After peaking in the mid-80s today I suspect Sunday will be cloudier with more numerous showers/storms as the front passes overhead. NWS Doppler radar at 12:26 PM.
* the area outlined in green from Olivia and St. Cloud to Mora and Duluth is under a mesoscale precipitation discussion - conditions are ripe for thunderstorms with rain falling at the rate of 1-2"/hour, capable of street and small stream flooding.
A Troubled Front. 1 km visible imagery at 12:30 PM shows cells mushrooming in the warm sector (with dew points in the mid and upper 60s providing plenty of fresh fuel). Winds aloft are light - the risk of severe storms is small, but there's a greater threat of repeated ("training") thunderstorms dropping some 2-5" rainfall amounts, especially over central Minnesota.
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It was another mild, partly cloudy, partly-drizzly February weekend with highs near 40F, but reality sets in today - in fact this may be the second coldest week of winter. Nothing excessive, not even close to record territory, but neighbors will be grumbling about the wind chill by midweek.
We may see these conditions over southwestern Minnesota later today, where a Blizzard Watch has been posted. Get your travel done early from Alexandria and Willmar to Mankato; the drive home from that Super Bowl party may be pretty rough. Check the Blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
20s didn't feel too bad out there yesterday; today and Sunday (morning) should feel even better as temperatures flirt with freezing. Enjoy the attempted thaw, because a week from now temperatures may be dipping below zero. A couple of clippers are brewing; Sunday's swirl of low pressure will whip up 30-35 mph gusts capable of white-out conditions, especially Red River Valley and western Minnesota.
Another coating of snow is expected today as a weak clipper drifts overhead. It may be considerably more than a coating late Sunday into Monday as colder air approaches. A few inches of snow coupled with 30+ mph winds will whip up the snow already on the ground, resulting in poor travel conditions, especially outside the metro area. It does turn colder next week, but nothing brutal, considering it's February in Minnesota...
A few nuisance snows are on the way; one today, another coating to 1" possible tomorrow, maybe some blowing and drifting on Super Bowl Sunday as colder air approaches. Enjoy a fleeting weekend thaw, because February chill returns next week. Long-range models still hint at a Pacific thaw the latter half of February, but winter isn't nearly done with us yet.