Storm Risk Increases This Afternoon - Flash Flood Risk Central Minnesota
May 31, 2014 — 3:21pm
Growing Shower and Thunderstorm Risk. The line of showers and storms that has hovered over southwest, central and northeastern Minnesoeta much of the day continues to creep east, pushing a ripe environment for pop-up showers and heavier T-stoms into the metro area. The risk of hit-or-miss storms increases as the afternoon goes on, the best chance of a few downpours western and northern suburbs. After peaking in the mid-80s today I suspect Sunday will be cloudier with more numerous showers/storms as the front passes overhead. NWS Doppler radar at 12:26 PM.
* the area outlined in green from Olivia and St. Cloud to Mora and Duluth is under a mesoscale precipitation discussion - conditions are ripe for thunderstorms with rain falling at the rate of 1-2"/hour, capable of street and small stream flooding.
A Troubled Front. 1 km visible imagery at 12:30 PM shows cells mushrooming in the warm sector (with dew points in the mid and upper 60s providing plenty of fresh fuel). Winds aloft are light - the risk of severe storms is small, but there's a greater threat of repeated ("training") thunderstorms dropping some 2-5" rainfall amounts, especially over central Minnesota.
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Highs will be in the 30s to around 40 Monday afternoon in the Twin Cities, but a change is coming as we head toward the second half of the week. How much snow could we see? And how cold could it get? Click for details! - D.J. Kayser
Enjoy the warmth through the middle of the week, as a blast of cold air will start to move in just in time for Christmas. Yes, we'll "welcome" highs in the single digits back to the region next weekend. This cold blast will also come with snow Wednesday-Thursday. Click for more information! - D.J. Kayser
I couldn't help but notice how bad the roads were last night with a lousy half inch of snow (on top of glaze ice in some areas). Travel conditions improve today with relative warmth through the middle of the week. The arrival of a real cold front could still set off a few inches by Thursday. A week from Saturday there will be no doubt in your mind that it's late December.
Yes, these are the "good 'ol days", at least in terms of tolerable temperatures. Highs reach the 30s from this weekend into Wednesday of next week, followed by a pre-Christmas temperature tumble. Nothing shriek-worthy, but within 7 days there will be NO doubt in your mind that winter is not to be trifled within across the Upper Midwest.
At this point the Twin Cities metro is running an 11 inch snowfall deficit, to date. And I don't see a major shift in the pattern anytime soon, at least through the end of December - no big snow events as long as prevailing jet stream winds are howling from the northwest. Temperatures run 5-10F warmer than average into Thursday of next week, then a numbing smack just in time for Christmas.