A Weekend Without Rain?

Graphic: Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Through 5 PM Sunday, we had picked up no rain so far this weekend here in the Twin Cities. At the fear of jinxing it in the final hours of Sunday... we could actually see a weekend without rain falling at the MSP airport. The last time we were able to see a Saturday and Sunday without rain was back on Memorial Day weekend.


Flash Flood Watches Across Northern Minnesota

Graphic: Tropical Tidbits

A slow-moving cold front across northern Minnesota Sunday night will set the stage for numerous storms across the region, some of which could produce heavy rain. The forecast loop above is off the 12z 3km NAM between 7 PM Sunday and 7 AM Monday.

Graphic: AerisWeather and Praedictix

Due to the potential of storms that could bring rainfall rates of one inch per hour, Flash Flood Watches have been issed from Sunday evening through Monday morning across parts of northern Minnesota, including Duluth, Grand Marais, Aitkin, Hibbing, and Brainerd.

Graphic: Praedictix and AerisWeather

Looking at the rainfall forecast over the next couple days, the heaviest will fall across parts of northern and central Minnesota Sunday Night, where a good 1-2" of rain is possible.

Graphic: AerisWeather and Praedictix

This rain will be on top of already a good 6-9"+ of rain that has fallen across northern portions of the state over the past 30 days.


July Record High Pressure Friday

Glorious high pressure was situated over the upper Midwest on Friday, bringing nice weather along with it. But did you know we actually saw record high pressure that day? The pressure was as high as 30.47"/1031.8mb at the Twin Cities airport, and 30.50"/1032.7mb at St. Cloud. Both of these high pressure readings set new July records.

Graphic: NWS WPC on Twitter

Here's a list of locations across the upper Midwest that achieved new July high pressure ratings on Friday according to the Weather Prediction Center. Areas like Chicago, Sioux Falls and Madison also tied or set new records.


A Primer on Summer Weather Terminology
By Paul Douglas

Weather forecasts should come with a warning label - and an interpreter. Perception becomes reality. "Ah, smiling sun with only one thunderbolt? Maybe I'll luck out today!" Or not.

The word "rain" implies everyone will get wet, with rain falling a significant part of the day. Summer precipitation is showery, hit or miss, but we can quantify the risk.

I try to shy away from "probability of precipitation". A 30 percent risk of T-storms doesn't mean 30 percent of the day will be wet or 30 percent of Minnesota will get wet. It means on 3 of 10 similar days, one point will pick up .01" of rain or more.

I prefer "isolated" showers (less than 10 percent of us will get wet), "scattered" (10-50 percent), "numerous" (50-80 percent) or "widespread" showers (over 80 percent). Verbiage can be as tricky as the forecast.

A grumble of thunder is possible early today as winds shift to the north. ECMWF guidance shows highs near 90F much of this week; the best chance of T-storms Thursday, again Sunday.

"Chris" may soon mutate into a hurricane, but probably stay just off the east coast.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: AM shower, then clearing. High 89. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind N 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Sunny. On the cusp of "hot”. High 90. Low 71. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sticky sunshine, noticeable humidity. High 92. Low 72. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Tropical, scattered T-storms. High 90. Low 69. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Probably sunnier and drier. High 90. Low 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Some sun, isolated PM storms. High 92. Low 72. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: More numerous T-storms, some heavy. High 86. Low 70. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.


This Day in Weather History
July 9th

1932: A tornado touches down near Springfield and moves into St. James, causing 500 thousand dollars in damage.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 9th

Average High: 84F (Record: 99F set in 1976)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 48F set in 1895)
Average Precipitation: 0.14" (Record: 2.55" set in 2000)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 9th

Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 9:00 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 24 minutes and 40 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1 hour and 15 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 6 AM Or Later: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 8:30 PM Or Earlier: August 8th (8:29 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

Graphic: Praedictix and AerisWeather

While a few showers or storms may linger into the morning hours, Monday looks to be another mainly sunny day across the state with highs in the 80s for most locations. Some parts of southern Minnesota could touch the low 90s for highs, while areas of far northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead will only be in the 70s.

Graphic: Praedictix and AerisWeather

Highs across the state Monday will be up to about five degrees above average for this time of year.

Graphic: AerisWeather

Temperatures will remain warm this week in the Twin Cities, with highs expected mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s. A touch cooler weather could return early next week.

Graphic: AerisWeather

After the potential of rain Sunday night, the next chance doesn’t arrive for the Twin Cities until Wednesday night into Thursday with the next frontal system pushing through the region. More storms will be possible as we head into next weekend.


National Weather Forecast

Graphic: Praedictix and AerisWeather

On Monday, a cold front will continue to work through parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, bringing the potential of showers and storms. A stalled out front from Texas through the Southeast will bring more shower and storm chances to these areas. Monsoonal storms are also expected to continue across parts of the Desert Southwest.

A few areas of heavier rain are possible this week across the nation. One of those is across the upper Midwest, with heavy rain possible across parts of Minnesota mainly Sunday Night into early Monday. Another is across parts of southern U.S. and the Gulf Coast where at least 1-2" of rain could fall. The monsoon picks up across the Desert Southwest, where areas of heavy rain will be possible. Then you see the bullseye of heavy rain out across the Atlantic - that's due to Tropical Storm Chris, which I'll have more on in a second. One other thing to notice - drier weather is expected across parts of the Corn Belt this week after very wet weather recently.


Keeping An Eye On The Tropics

Graphic: AerisWeather and Praedictix

The remnants of Beryl continue to weaken and move to the west-northwest out in the Atlantic. The system will move through the Lesser Antilles Sunday Night and into the eastern Caribbean.

Graphic: AerisWeather and Praedictix

Tropical Storm Chris will meander far off the Carolina coast through the first part of the week as it is stuck in an area of light steering currents. It will finally get a push off to the northeast by the middle of the week. As Chris continues to sit across the same area, the storm will strengthen, and is expectect to become a hurricane Monday.


2018 Lightning Death Toll Up To 11

Sadly we are now up to 11 lightning deaths this year in the United States, as a Kingston, TN, 75-year-old male was struck and killed Friday Night while walking to his home after mowing his lawn. WVLT-TV has more information. According to John Jensenius, a meteorologist with the NWS, "the U.S. averages 12 lightning fatalities by July 6."


Snow pile surviving summer heat in Appleton

More from NBC 26: "Even after seven days with temperatures in the 90's this summer, the snow from the storm of the century is still "hanging on!  Appleton got 21 inches of snow during that mid-April blizzard. J.P. Heim has been documenting the slow melting of that massive snow pile in a downtown parking ramp on his way to work."

How did a tame Kansas thunderstorm suddenly produce the violent Eureka tornado?

More from the Wichita Eagle: "The tornado that tore through Eureka late last month came from a storm that intensified so rapidly no warning was issued, officials say.  "It spun up so fast that we didn’t have quite enough time to get the tornado warning out in time," said Andy Kleinsasser, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wichita.  The EF-3 tornado touched down in the southwest corner of Eureka at 7:18 p.m. on June 26 and moved northeast through the center of town. Weather officials on Friday said new evidence suggests there may have been a brief twin tornado that caused damage in southwest Eureka."

'It was pretty much mayhem': Wild storm at Emma Lake destroys trailers, left campers trapped by fallen trees

More from the CBC: "It was a close call for a number of families camping at Saskatchewan's Emma Lake Friday night, who awoke to a storm tearing through the Murray Point campground.  Terri Bjarnason was in her camper with her husband and two young children.  She said she was trying to go to sleep when it started to rain and the wind began to howl. "We heard a big crack and we looked out our window, and there was a tree at our site that had snapped off and was laying across the road," she said."

Stripes may be cool -- but they don't cool zebras down

More from Science Daily: "Susanne Åkesson, a biologist at Lund University in Sweden, refutes the theory that zebras have striped fur to stay cool in the hot sun. That hypothesis is wrong, she and her colleagues show in a study recently published in Scientific Reports.  There has been an ongoing discussion among researchers, dating back to Darwin, on why zebras have their signature black and white stripes.  One of several theories is that it keeps them cool in the sunshine. The black stripes get warmer than the white areas, and the theory states that this creates small vortexes when the hotter air above the dark fur meets the cooler air above the white fur. According to the theory these vortexes works as a fan to cool the body."

Japan's Deadly Typhoon Rains Have Left 2 Million Ready to Evacuate

More from Earther: "Throughout western and central Japan, rains are terrorizing entire villages and triggering deadly landslides. At least four people have already died, and authorities ordered another roughly 210,000 people to evacuate their homes as of Friday. Another two million people are being advised to follow suit.  Pacific typhoon season has begun, and it’s bringing “historic” rainfall to this part of the island nation, reports Reuters. The Weather Network connects the recent spate of intense rainfall, in part, to Typhoon Prapiroon, which churned through in the Sea of Japan earlier this week. These rains are set to continue through Sunday—and with them, potentially even more landslides. Meanwhile, another storm, Typhoon Maria, is now a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, potentially endangering Okinawa and China next week."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser


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