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## Data model ranks Rubio, Love as the two worst qualifying players in NBA in 2012-13 season

Posted by: Michael Rand under Wolves news Updated: February 6, 2014 - 4:32 PM

A paper will be presented at the increasingly famous MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference later this month that summarizes methodology and early results from a new basketball statistic called Expected Possession Value.

One of the authors, Kirk Goldsberry, wrote about it on Grantland, and you can summarize it thusly: EPV seeks to place a value on every single movement of every single player every second they are on the court.

The abstract of the paper provides this:

"We propose a framework for using player-tracking data to assign a point value to each moment of a possession by computing how many points the offense is expected to score by the end of the possession, a quantity we call expected possession value (EPV). EPV allows analysts to evaluate every decision made during a  basketball game – whether it is to pass, dribble, or shoot – opening the door for a multitude of new metrics and analyses of basketball that quantify value in terms of points."

It is somewhere between fascinating and terrifying. We plan to write a little more about it for print tomorrow. Basically, as Goldsberry writes, "For years, we have talked about 'advanced stats' when what we were really talking about was slightly savvier arithmetic. That’s going to change, whether we want it to or not."

This could be the next revolution, and as it pertains to the 2012-13 Timberwolves and their two core players going forward, it is not pretty.

The number assigned to EPVA (EPV Added) amounts to the number of "points added" by a particular player in relation to an average player, as defined by what they do every time they touch the ball. Chris Paul has the best number, at 3.48. That means by being Chris Paul instead of an average player, he adds 3.48 points per game.

There were 327 players last season who had the requisite number of "qualifying possessions" to be charted. The player with the worst EPVA of those 327 was Ricky Rubio, at minus-3.33. The player with the second-worst EPVA was Kevin Love, at minus-2.38. (The top 10 and bottom 10 are located in one of the "tables" in that link.

Some other players we consider to be very good -- Russell Westbrook and Paul George among them -- were also in the bottom 10. And let's remember that Love had a largely ineffective and injury-marred season and is almost certainly much better in that number this year. As for Rubio? Well, as Goldsberry writes:

Rubio owes most of his “points lost” to his unfortunate shooting skills. Relative to league averages, he struggles to make shots in every part of the scoring area. In terms of EPV “over replacement,” almost every jumper Rubio decides to take is a proposition less valuable than if almost any other similar player took that exact same shot.

Goldsberry doesn't claim EPV is the end-all, be-all statistic. Rather, he comes from a point of curiosity and love of data -- and he asserts that the contribution of EPV "remains unknown." We encourage you to read the entire Grantland piece if this all interests you.

But the methodology and sheer data involved are frightening in both scope and what they could mean for the Wolves' point guard.

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### TFD: Updated mock drafts from Kiper, McShay -- one has Vikings taking QB

 Buffalo 17 FINAL New England 9
 Cleveland 10 FINAL Baltimore 20
 Dallas 44 FINAL Washington 17
 Indianapolis 27 FINAL Tennessee 10
 Jacksonville 17 FINAL Houston 23
 San Diego 7 FINAL Kansas City 19
 NY Jets 37 FINAL Miami 24
 Chicago 9 FINAL Minnesota 13
 Philadelphia 34 FINAL NY Giants 26
 New Orleans 23 FINAL Tampa Bay 20
 Carolina 34 FINAL Atlanta 3
 Detroit 20 FINAL Green Bay 30
 Oakland 14 FINAL Denver 47
 Arizona 17 FINAL San Francisco 20
 St. Louis 6 FINAL Seattle 20
 Cincinnati 17 FINAL Pittsburgh 27
 Arizona 1/3/15 3:35 PM Carolina
 Baltimore 1/3/15 7:15 PM Pittsburgh
 Detroit 103 FINAL Cleveland 80
 Houston 106 FINAL San Antonio 110
 Oklahoma City 107 FINAL Dallas 112
 New York 79 FINAL Portland 101
 Toronto 116 FINAL Denver 102
 Phoenix 116 FINAL LA Lakers 107
 Toronto 4 FINAL Florida 6
 Vancouver 1 FINAL(OT) Anaheim 2
 Tulane 57 FINAL St Johns 82
 Central Conn St 48 FINAL Connecticut 81
 Iona 81 FINAL Drexel 62
 Concordia (MI) 42 FINAL Eastern Mich 100
 Harvard 46 FINAL Arizona State 56
 Longwood 64 FINAL Ball State 69
 Sacred Heart 76 FINAL Brown 79
 Colgate 64 FINAL Columbia 69
 MD-Eastern Shore 78 FINAL Duquesne 69
 UNC Greensboro 50 FINAL East Carolina 71
 Marist 64 FINAL Elon 69
 NJIT 71 FINAL Lafayette 76
 Cincinnati Christian 58 FINAL Liberty 78
 Morgan State 53 FINAL Marquette 81
 Campbell 56 FINAL Samford 65
 Bucknell 71 FINAL Siena 73
 Long Beach State 67 FINAL Syracuse 85
 Coppin State 80 FINAL Evansville 85
 UMKC 73 FINAL Indiana State 70
 Hofstra 88 FINAL Long Island 62
 Coast Guard 48 FINAL Army 93
 Thomas (GA) 48 FINAL High Point 85
 Texas Southern 58 FINAL Kansas State 56
 Rutgers 59 FINAL Monmouth 58
 NC Wesleyan 54 FINAL NC A&T 58
 South Dakota St 63 FINAL Northern Iowa 74
 Central Penn College 69 FINAL Radford 119
 Bowling Green 79 FINAL South Florida 70
 Harris-Stowe 66 FINAL SE Missouri St 94
 Robert Morris-IL 56 FINAL SIU Edwardsville 104
 Northland College 59 FINAL North Dakota St 83
 Milwaukee 60 FINAL South Dakota 84
 Northwestern St 92 FINAL Arkansas 100
 Saint Peters 59 FINAL Cornell 52
 St Katherine 62 FINAL Fresno State 93
 Haskell 42 FINAL Oral Roberts 94
 Wake Forest 65 FINAL Richmond 63
 Fla Gulf Coast 57 FINAL Xavier 71
 SD Christian 45 FINAL Northern Ariz 71
 Judson 46 FINAL IUPU-Ft Wayne 80
 Loyola-Maryland 61 FINAL Fairfield 59
 Miss Valley St 53 FINAL Houston 80
 Lehigh 58 FINAL UMBC 55
 Delaware State 56 FINAL Temple 66
 Belmont 56 FINAL Butler 67
 Howard 59 FINAL Fordham 74
 NW Christian 67 FINAL Nevada 81
 UC Davis 83 FINAL Washington St 90
 Abilene Christian 81 FINAL Grand Canyon 83
 UCLA 50 FINAL Alabama 56
 Stony Brook 62 FINAL Washington 57
 Buffalo 56 FINAL Wisconsin 68
 CS-Bakersfield 55 FINAL California 52
 Cincinnati 17 FINAL Virginia Tech 33
 (15) Arizona State 36 FINAL Duke 31
 Miami-Florida 21 FINAL So Carolina 24
 Boston College 30 FINAL Penn State 31
 (25) Nebraska 42 FINAL (24) USC 45
 Texas A&M 1:00 PM West Virginia
 Oklahoma 4:30 PM (18) Clemson
 Arkansas 8:00 PM Texas
 Notre Dame 12/30/14 2:00 PM (22) LSU
 (13) Georgia 12/30/14 5:45 PM (20) Louisville
 Maryland 12/30/14 9:00 PM Stanford
 (9) Ole Miss 12/31/14 11:30 AM (6) TCU
 (21) Boise State 12/31/14 3:00 PM (12) Arizona
 (8) Miss State 12/31/14 7:00 PM (10) Georgia Tech
 (19) Auburn 1/1/15 11:00 AM (17) Wisconsin
 (7) Michigan State 1/1/15 11:30 AM (4) Baylor
 (16) Missouri 1/1/15 12:00 PM Minnesota
 (2) Florida State 1/1/15 4:00 PM (3) Oregon
 (5) Ohio State 1/1/15 7:30 PM (1) Alabama
 Houston 1/2/15 11:00 AM Pittsburgh
 Iowa 1/2/15 2:20 PM Tennessee
 (11) Kansas State 1/2/15 5:45 PM (14) UCLA
 Washington 1/2/15 9:15 PM Oklahoma State
 East Carolina 1/3/15 11:00 AM Florida
 Toledo 1/4/15 8:00 PM Arkansas State
 Drexel 71 FINAL Miami-Ohio 54
 Holy Cross 63 FINAL Norfolk State 62
 East Carolina 62 FINAL South Florida 69
 (10) Oregon State 63 FINAL (8) Tennessee 74
 Providence 51 FINAL Boston College 79
 Florida A&M 47 FINAL Miami-Florida 83
 Oakland 69 FINAL Central Michigan 74
 Chattanooga 59 FINAL SIU-Edwardsville 49
 Fairfield 59 FINAL La Salle 73
 St Francis-PA 59 FINAL Pittsburgh 97
 Milwaukee 72 FINAL IUPU-Ft Wayne 78
 Gardner-Webb 59 FINAL Longwood 63
 New Hampshire 58 FINAL Manhattan 54
 Bucknell 68 FINAL Binghamton 57
 Northeastern 70 FINAL Albany 67
 George Mason 70 FINAL Towson 72
 Richmond 59 FINAL William & Mary 56
 Tulane 60 FINAL Cincinnati 50
 North Florida 51 FINAL Florida 63
 (14) Georgia 51 FINAL Seton Hall 70
 Tennessee St 75 FINAL (12) Kentucky 87
 American Univ 64 FINAL Wake Forest 77
 Massachusetts 78 FINAL Boston U 57
 Quinnipiac 69 FINAL Saint Josephs 67
 Lafayette 49 FINAL Saint Peters 34
 Northwestern 61 FINAL (20) Michigan State 57
 Duquesne 82 FINAL Lehigh 75
 George Washington 72 FINAL Loyola-Maryland 49
 (17) Rutgers 66 FINAL Indiana 51
 (24) Green Bay 66 FINAL Dayton 72
 Western Mich 55 FINAL Stony Brook 59
 Davidson 67 FINAL Virginia 57
 UNC Greensboro 61 FINAL LSU 82
 Denver 63 FINAL North Texas 55
 VA Commonwealth 63 FINAL Coppin State 52
 Huston-Tillotson 36 FINAL Houston Baptist 86
 Lamar 63 FINAL Rice 97
 Miss Valley St 40 FINAL Alabama 71
 Saint Louis 63 FINAL Eastern Illinois 49
 Middle Tennessee 98 FINAL Tenn Tech 76
 Penn State 52 FINAL (23) Iowa 77
 Purdue 62 FINAL Illinois 55
 DePaul 99 FINAL Illinois State 62
 Sam Houston St 46 FINAL Wichita State 70
 South Dakota 76 FINAL TX-San Antonio 69
 (4) Notre Dame 82 FINAL UCLA 67
 Coll of Charleston 51 FINAL SC State 60
 Alcorn State 53 FINAL Texas-El Paso 63
 Dartmouth 76 FINAL Niagara 70
 Colgate 68 FINAL Siena 80
 Michigan 53 FINAL Wisconsin 63
 Fla Gulf Coast 73 FINAL CS-Northridge 64
 Yale 51 FINAL (25) Arizona State 69
 UC Santa Barbara 34 FINAL (16) Stanford 90
 Long Island 63 FINAL Long Beach St 71
 Jackson State 56 FINAL Louisiana 65
 Eureka 50 FINAL Western Ill 91
 Cornell 59 FINAL (22) Syracuse 76
 Temple 58 FINAL Memphis 57

### question of the day

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