Where the Timberwolves stack up for the No. 1 pick

Here is what to watch for tonight (7:30 p.m., ESPN), and where the Timberwolves stack up for the No. 1 pick. The top three draft lottery spots are decided by a drawing among the 14 teams that failed to make the NBA playoffs.

Last update: May 21, 2007 - 10:51 PM

THE TIMBERWOLVES

The Timberwolves are in the seventh spot for the 2007 NBA draft lottery. Here are their chances tonight:

The Wolves have:

• A 5.3 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick

• A 6 percent chance at getting the No. 2 pick

• A 7 percent chance of getting the No. 3 pick

• An 18.3 percent chance of moving into the top 3

• A 57 percent chance of staying where they are

• A 24.5 percent chance of moving down

WORST TEAM, BEST CHANCE

Memphis has the best chance at the top pick (25 percent), followed by Boston (19.9), Milwaukee (15.6), Atlanta (11.9) and Seattle (8.8). There are 14 numbered balls in the lottery. Four balls are drawn one at a time. Order of the numbers is not considered, leaving 1,001 possible combinations. One combination (11-12-13-14) is ignored, leaving 1,000, and 250 combinations are assigned to Memphis, 199 to Boston, etc. After the top three picks are assigned, the teams draft in scheduled order.

THE BIG PRIZES

Every NBA mock draft has two freshmen -- Ohio State center Greg Oden and Texas forward Kevin Durant -- as the top two picks. The consensus No. 3 choice is North Carolina freshman forward Brandan Wright.

DURANT OR ODEN: SO WHO'S GOING NO. 1?

Let's see: The options are the college player of the year (Durant) or a guy who is a rebounding and shot-blocking terror who arguably would have been last year's top player had it not been for the NBA's age requirement (Oden). Either way, the teams taking the top two picks are going to do fine. "Someone is going to get very smart in a hurry," said New Jersey Nets GM Rod Thorn.

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