Michael Russo's Sunday Insider: Zapping the NHL's cap

If Marian Gaborik still becomes a free agent July 1, there's a good chance the Wild sniper will find no offer that will top the one he left on the table -- believed to be upwards of $8 million annually -- from the Wild in September.

And, that's not only because Gaborik's (essentially) season-long "lower body" injury may scare teams off from giving him a lucrative, long-term contract.

It's because of the reality check all 30 teams received at the Board of Governors meeting last week in Palm Beach.

In case the $5,000-suit owners were out of touch with the way today's economic downturn is affecting common, everyday folks, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman flew a banker and economist down south.

Toronto Maple Leafs CEO Richard Peddie nicknamed them "Drs. Doom and Gloom" because the two painted a grim picture with the goal of waking up owners and managers who often act as their own worst enemies.

Last June, the salary cap increased to $56.7 million. On July 1, in one day, more than $400 million of long-term contracts were handed out as if teams were taking for granted that the cap would rise year after year after year.

Guess what? The cap will either stay stagnant or go down a few million next summer. The only reason it's not more is because most teams already sold their season tickets before the world's economy took a turn for the worse last summer.

But 2010-11 is another story. Because of the economy, many teams will probably find selling their inventories torturous for next season. If tickets go unsold for 2009-10, league revenue would decrease and the 2010-11 cap could be slashed.

With that in mind, the timing couldn't be worse for Gaborik, the Sedin twins, Alex Kovalev, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen and other elite players who could become free agents this summer.

The Red Wings are really in a pickle. Zetterberg, Franzen and Marian Hossa will become unrestricted free agents and Jiri Hudler restricted. No way they can keep them all.

"We're going into territory that nobody's really been in," Detroit GM Ken Holland told reporters at the Board of Governors meeting. "So to say I've got a game plan, I don't know how anybody could have a game plan."

Of course, it takes only one GM looking to make a splash to still give Gaborik a lucrative, long-term package. But you can guarantee that one GM won't be named Doug Risebrough.

Risebrough wouldn't talk about Gaborik specifically, but he admitted, "I'm not looking at next year's cap. I'm looking at what the cap will be two, three, four, five years from now.

"As I've always said, you need flexibility and it's not good to spend to the cap. Well, the future caps are uncertain, meaning you need more flexibility to distance yourself off the cap even more. What that really comes down to is making tough decisions on players -- plain and simple."

There's no mechanism to get over-the-cap teams under the cap. So if the cap plummets and you're stuck with too many long-term contracts, you're trapped.

"If all the players would sign one-year contracts, it wouldn't be a concern," Risebrough said. "But that ain't happening."

Risebrough's not saying you can't award long-term contracts in this climate. He's just saying you better be sure it's to the right players.

"Contracts can be lengthy and be the right decision if the right type of person's earning it or it's the right need for the team," Risebrough said. "I'd say the situation we're in now is revealing some bad business practices by some of us."

It's a challenging time to be running an NHL team. Just as in our daily lives, there's no crystal ball in this economic climate.

And this summer, Gaborik might be left wishing he had a crystal ball back in September.