VikesCentric is written by Twin Cities football writers Bo Mitchell and Patrick Donnelly of SportsData and Christian Peterson of LeagueSafe.com. The three of them are Twin Cities-based Vikings and NFL experts who crunch numbers, watch video and tell you what's on their minds.

VikesCentric: Pondering a retractable roof

Posted by: Bo Mitchell under Vikings Updated: May 18, 2012 - 7:52 AM
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One of the most frequently-asked questions about plans for the Minnesota Vikings new $975 million stadium is whether it will have a fixed roof or a retractable roof. 

The stadium legislation signed by Governor Mark Dayton provides for a fixed roof. Moreover, it specifically states that if the Vikings owners want the fancier, retractable model they're going to have to open up their big, fat wallets a little wider and pay for it themselves.
 
You know the Wilfs are thinking about it. In fact, they've said they're going to try to make it happen.
 
Among the reasons for a retractable roof: soccer.
 
A provision in the stadium deal gives the Wilfs a window after the new place opens to lure a Major League Soccer franchise to play in the new digs. Zygi and Mark Wilf have already been in touch with MLS officials about doing just that. Soccer would need to be played "outside," as in "with the roof open."
 
Something tells me they'll get it done. To the Wilfs, building the new stadium without a retractable roof would probably be tantamount to driving the ball down to the one yard line and settling for a field goal attempt instead of a touchdown. And then kicking it wide right.
 
It's not entirely clear how much a retractable roof would raise the price. I've heard estimates in the $20-50-million range, but who knows? Converting a stadium with no roof to a retractable roof could cost more than $100 million and ripping off an existing fixed roof and replacing it with a retractable version costs several hundred million bucks. If the retractable version is part of the original blueprint, the cost is dramatically less.
 
Assuming the retractable roof plans are ultimately green-lighted by the Wilfs, the question of when to have the roof open and when to close it would come into play. Zygi has already joked about opening it up for snowstorms. At least I think he was joking. The NFL doesn't have published rules that stipulate opening or closing a roof based on weather conditions, but other facilities with retractable roofs -- such as the ones in Indianapolis and Houston -- have their own set of weather-related guidelines.
 
If the Vikings pay for a retractable roof, my best guess is that the roof would remain open for Vikings games until sometime in October. Once the mercury starts dipping below 40 degrees they'll probably shut it.
 
Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder, who should be in the prime of his career when the new stadium opens, sees pros and cons to having a retractable roof. "I love being outside, but playing in late December, I think that's going to be tough," he told me Thursday at Winter Park. "At the same time it could be a home field advantage for us."
 
I was meeting with Ponder for a piece I'm writing for the Vikings 2012 Yearbook, but I couldn't resist getting his take on the new stadium even though the roof decision will likely be made before the Yearbook goes on sale at the Metrodome.  
 
"I think a retractable roof is kind of pointless," Ponder told me, referring to how they've been under-used elsewhere. "You see all these teams that have a retractable roof that don't really use it. Obviously the idea is great… but I feel like a lot of [teams] don't use the 'retract ability' at all."
 
The young quarterback makes a good point. If the Wilfs do decide to spring for the extra amenity, they better use it. It might be a mistake to leave the roof open in December as Zygi hinted they'd do, unless of course we keep having winters like the one we had this past year. But prematurely closing it for games in September would be just as silly. Ultimately, it would be nice to have at least some outdoor Vikings football back beyond just the season or two they'll be playing at TCF Bank Stadium.
 
After decades of Metrodome football, you can officially count me in as being in favor of the retractable roof. Then again, I won't be the one paying for it.
 
 
Bo Mitchell is the Vice President of Content at SportsData and co-host of the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on KFAN 100.3 FM.
 
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

VikesCentric: Plenty to skol about

Posted by: Bo Mitchell under Vikings, Packers, Super Bowl, Vikings fans, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin Updated: May 11, 2012 - 1:50 PM
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To "skol" is to salute -- to toast with a drink to good health. You know the word from the Vikings' fight song, yet I'm guessing you never use it in daily conversation. In light of what happened in St. Paul on Thursday, however, it might be time to expand your vocabulary with the ol' Norse term.

 
After all, there's plenty to skol about.
 
Following 10-plus years of frustrating fits and starts in the state legislature, the Vikings are finally going to get their new stadium. Thursday's victories in the house and senate marked the biggest win the Vikings have had, well, maybe ever.
 
As Green Bay Packers fans would be quick to point out, a legislative victory doesn't quite compare to a Super Bowl victory. But beleaguered Vikings fans will take what they can get. And a piece of legislation that careens through the dilapidated state capitol and saves your favorite team from moving to Los Angeles, Montreal, or wherever, counts as a pretty huge victory. If the Vikes would have left town, any faint hope of a Super Bowl championship would have left with them.
 
Skol!
 
The passion of Vikings fans was on full display at the State Capitol the last few weeks as dozens of face-painted, helmet-adorned troops invaded the rotunda and filled the email inboxes of every legislator.
 
Despite this 11th-hour rally of Purple Pride, I can't help but think Vikings fans have been forced to hold their passion in check just a little over the past year or two. Not because of any lack of allegiance or disgust over a 3-13 record. Vikings fans are a pessimistic lot for good reason. Take that negative fatalistic attitude and mix in a healthy dose of concern about whether the team would be packing up for Hollywood and it's understandable why you might have reined in your emotional ties to the team. It's an innate protection mechanism: you can't let yourself get too attached to someone or something you fear might soon be gone.
 
I'm guessing there are a lot of perfectly-rabid Vikings fans who, over the past 12-18 months, have considered buying that Adrian Peterson jersey for their kid, and then thought to themselves, "But the Vikings could be playing in Los Angeles in a few years so what's the point?"
 
Or maybe you were going to plunk down your hard-earned money for season tickets, or get a Viking car flag, or paint the backyard shed purple and gold. "But it looks like they're going to be gone, so why do it? They'll never pass a stadium bill."
 
That little Debby Downer voice of fate in the back of your head that's prevented you from going all-in with your Vikings fanaticism… it's been vanquished.
 
Skol!
 
No longer will you have to think to yourself, "Matt Kalil sure looks like a beast. He'll be protecting Christian Ponder's blind side for the next 10 years… with the Los Angeles Vikings (sad trombone)." Not anymore.
 
So go ahead and paint that shed purple and gold. Heck, paint your garage, too... and slap a Vikings logo Fathead on the door. Buy that Peterson jersey, send him some healthy thoughts for his knee (some skol vibes if you will), and then get a Percy Harvin jersey, while you're at it.
 
It's skol time.
 
The questions surrounding where the Vikings will play and if they'll stay in Minnesota are over. The new questions are much more fun. Questions like: when exactly will they put a shovel in the ground to start building the new place? Who's the lucky one that gets to push the button to implode the Metrodome? What exactly will the new stadium look like? Will it have a retractable roof? Will the new plaza evoke wonderment? How much room will there be for tailgating? When will the new place get a Final Four or a Monster Truck "Bash"? How about a Super Bowl?
 
Vikings fans, you can breathe easy. The team you've loved through four Super Bowl losses and then some isn't going anywhere.
 
Indeed, if I know Vikings fans like I think I do, there's a LOT of skolling going on right now.
 
Bo Mitchell is the Vice President of Content at SportsData and co-host of the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on KFAN 100.3 FM.
 
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

VikesCentric: Observations on the absurd stadium debates

Posted by: Christian Peterson under Vikings, Packers Updated: May 10, 2012 - 10:58 PM
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Let me start by saying I’m about as apolitical as a person can get. Just about everything about politics turns me off. It feels, mostly, like a bunch of people who think they’re smarter than they are making petty arguments and self-serving agreements that wind up helping or hurting large numbers of people. Yet somehow, it works. It’s worked for about 236 years, in fact, so well that the United States is easily the best and most powerful country in the world.

I’m also a die-hard Viking fan and ardent supporter of the new stadium. With that as a preamble, I have been following the legislative machinations over the Vikings stadium issue over the past three days with infinitely more interest than any other political event, well, ever. While at times mind-numbingly boring, at the same time it’s somehow been absolutely fascinating.

My first observation is that, apparently, being well-educated about an issue is not a prerequisite for being elected and, ultimately, casting a legislative vote. That may be harsh, but I was struck by the sheer idiocy of many of the arguments, both for and against, the proposed stadium. I understand that much of the posturing and the bringing forth of ludicrous proposed amendments is a political tactic employed by legislators on both sides of the issue, but some of it most certainly isn’t. It’s both frightening and shocking to see how ill-informed some of the legislators were on the issue at hand.

For example, here are just a few of the absurdities that occurred during the initial debates in the House and Senate on Tuesday and Wednesday:

  • One congresswoman stood up and declared her desire to add an amendment that would require that every Vikings game be carried on television for free for every citizen of Minnesota. The NFL’s blackout rules and the television networks be damned, by law we were going to force every game to be on free T.V. for everyone! During her argument, she made vague reference to “rumors” about the NFL starting their own network. Hate to break it to you, ma’am, but the NFL Network debuted in 2003.
  • A legislator made reference to “Zygi Wolf.”
  • Another railed against the expansion of gambling one minute, only to subsequently propose an amendment that would have created an online lottery.
  • There was an attempt to make the Vikings a publicly-owned entity, like the Green Bay Packers. NFL rules no longer permit public ownership of their franchises – it’s been disallowed since the 1980s.
  • Late on Wednesday night, a legislator stood up and confused the investment banking firm Goldman Sachs with Saks 5th Avenue.
  • Within a span of a few hours, the Senate added a requirement for a Minneapolis referendum to approve the stadium plan, only to revoke it, then they passed an amendment that would have dramatically increased the amount of user fees in the bill, only to have the same amendment voted down on a re-vote only moments after it had been approved.
  • One of the main proponents of the bill held up a sign saying “Help!” as one of his colleagues proposed yet another hare-brained amendment. In a refreshingly candid revelation, a representative stood up late in the House debates on Tuesday and said, “People are watching, and see how stupid we look.” Amen, brother.

And that’s just a tiny fraction of the shenanigans that occurred during the combined 20-plus hours of debate on the stadium bill in both houses of the Minnesota legislature. Eventually, it got to the point where it wouldn’t have been a surprise if someone had raised an amendment proposing that the Vikings be allowed to play with 15 players on the field, or another forcing the Packers to trade Aaron Rodgers to the Vikings. Many of these legislators evidently believe they can do just about anything they want.

To be fair, there were more than a few very intelligent and well-spoken people arguing on both sides of the debate. But generally speaking, it’s nothing short of astonishing that these are the people who are making decisions on not only the stadium, but on far more important issues. I can only hope that they are less ignorant when it comes to things like health care and education.

Somehow, despite all the senseless time-wasting, absurd amendment proposing, and petty political maneuvering, the democratic process actually worked. On Thursday afternoon as the final minutes wound down just prior to the final vote, a Senator stood up and made an impassioned speech about how the end result of the hours of debate was something to be proud of; a bi-partisan effort that resulted in a brand new stadium that will keep an important piece of Minnesota culture around for another 30 years.  It was almost enough to make me forget about all of the ridiculous stuff that happened in the preceding 48 hours. Almost, but not quite.

In a way, though, he was right. The process certainly wasn’t pretty. In fact, it was shockingly ugly. Thomas Jefferson would roll over in his grave if he saw legislators fumbling their way through parliamentary procedures, ill-prepared speeches, and un-researched proposals while grown men wearing purple and gold face paint chanted rallying cries from outside the door; all of it unfolding in front of the world on television and on the internet. But the end result of it all was a compromise between the state and the owners of the Vikings that some will hate and others will love, but that ultimately represents what most of the citizens of Minnesota seem to have wanted.

Where else in the world can a dude wearing purple-and-gold zebra-striped Zubaz with a painted face, two yellow ponytails, a leather vest, and a nordic helmet with matching horns help dictate what happens at the highest levels of government? Only in America.

Christian Peterson is the Director of Operations at LeagueSafe.com. He is also a contributing writer at Vikings.com and a co-host of the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on KFAN 100.3 FM.

Follow Christian on Twitter: @CP_ChristianP

VikesCentric: About that sixth-round kicker

Posted by: Christian Peterson under Vikings, NFL draft, Vikings fans, Ryan Longwell Updated: May 1, 2012 - 9:26 PM
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After an overwhelmingly positive reaction to the Vikings’ first-round draft picks on Thursday night, the rest of NFL Draft Weekend turned into a bit of a snoozer for most Vikings fans, and Saturday’s somewhat controversial selections seem to have drawn a fair amount of angst amongst the Purple Faithful. In particular, the selection of Georgia kicker Blair Walsh in Round 6 has seemingly caused the most outrage amongst Vikings fans and detractors alike.

In the end, I fall on the side of the naysayers on this one, but I’ll get to that in a bit. First, there actually are several arguments in favor of the move. 

To start with, incumbent kicker Ryan Longwell is 37 years old (he’ll be 38 by the time the season starts) He missed six of his 28 field goal attempts in 2011, and missed five of his 13 attempts from beyond 40 yards. He’s also still owed $7 million over the next three seasons, with a cap hit of another $2.6 million on top of his base salary. From a pure business standpoint, it makes little sense to pay a 38-year-old kicker with obvious limitations coming off one of the worst seasons of his impressive career $7 million when a rookie would cost a tiny fraction of that cost. The $2.6 million cap hit (Longwell’s $3.5 million signing bonus, spread evenly across the life of his 4-year deal) would be a tough pill to swallow, but continuing to pay Longwell through his age 41 season might be throwing good money after bad. Even if Walsh misses a bunch of field goal attempts (he made just 74 percent of his kicks in college), would it really matter in 2012? Are the re-building Vikings just a couple of field goals away from the playoffs next year? Is paying a kicker who may be past his prime like one of the best in the league really a good allocation of Zygi Wilf’s money?

There’s also a case to be made that jettisoning the weak-legged Longwell in favor of the stronger Walsh is also a savvy move from a pure football standpoint as well.

Longwell’s major limitation is his inability to produce touchbacks on kickoffs. In 2011, he ranked 28th in the NFL with just 19 kickoffs, and he ranked 34th by forcing touchbacks on just 24.7 percent of his kicks (in part because of this, the Vikings ranked 31st in the NFL in average opponent starting position, according to Football Outsiders' drive stats. Vikings opponents started the average drive at the 31-yard line, while the 49ers defense/special teams led the NFL by forcing opponents to start each drive, on average, at their own 24-yard line). 

That might not seem very important, but according to people who are a lot smarter than me, it is. According to an article on a website called Advanced NFL Stats, touchbacks are a lot more valuable than you might imagine. The article is from 2009 and is therefore somewhat outdated, but the findings remain valid today. You can see all the nerdy details here if you’d like, but the highlights of the research done by Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats are these:

Using a concept called Expected Points, Burke concludes that a touchback is worth the rough equivalent of half a sack (to drastically oversimplify things, this means that forcing a team to start out at their own 20-yard line twice in a game has roughly the same negative effect on the expected points that team’s offense will score as does sacking the quarterback once). 

  • The average field position for non-touchback kickoffs is the 32-yard line. Therefore, each touchback saves 12 yards of field position, which results in the opposing offense having to attain one more first down than they would have otherwise in order to get into scoring position. According to Burke, “the average first down conversion rate in the NFL is 67%, so a touchback turns a TD drive into a FG drive or a FG drive into a punt 33% of the time.”
  • For the sake of argument, let’s assume Walsh makes the team as a kickoff specialist, or just beats Longwell out for all of the place-kicking duties, and is able to boot 33 touchbacks in 2012, which was the league average for the top 32 kickers in 2011. According to Advanced NFL Stats’ Expected Points, Walsh’s addition, purely in terms of field position and allowing fewer points, would be the equivalent of the Vikings having added a defensive player who produces 6.5 sacks this season. And when you consider that the top 10 kickers in 2011 all booted at least 40 touchbacks, Walsh’s impact could be even greater if his leg proves significantly stronger than Longwell’s.
It’s a fancy way of saying what should be obvious – starting field position does matter in the NFL, and the ability of a kicker to produce touchbacks and prevent long kickoff returns is a factor in winning and losing games.
 
Of course, this is an argument that really only works for winning teams. Or, at least for teams that aren’t in full-scale rebuilding mode. Carrying that extra kickoff specialist in an effort to gain 50 percent more touchbacks makes sense for a playoff team looking for every little edge. On a deep roster filled with above-average NFL players, eating a roster spot on a kickoff specialist is probably more valuable than carrying that ninth offensive lineman, seventh cornerback, or sixth wide receiver. But, realistically, the Vikings aren’t a playoff team, and shouldn’t be making decisions like one, and the reality is that spending an asset – even if just a sixth-round draft pick – on a kicker just isn’t worth it. 
 
Over the last 10 years, only 23 placekickers have been selected in the NFL Draft. Only a handful of those 23 have gone on to make a significant impact in the NFL (the short list of high-impact kickers who were actually drafted includes Mason Crosby, Nate Kaeding, Stephen Gostkowski, Josh Scobee, Josh Brown, and Mike Nugent). Overall, just 10 of the 23 kickers drafted over the past 10 years were still on an NFL roster in 2011.
 
That’s a pretty bleak success rate. When you consider that a kicker has to be viewed as the absolute best of the best in college to be drafted at all, the fact that over 50 percent of them fail miserably is not exactly a ringing endorsement for spending a pick on a kicker.
 
And that’s essentially what it comes down to. The Vikings need players all over the field, and passing up the opportunity to draft a developmental player at any number of positions in favor of selecting a kicker that is more likely to fizzle than make any kind of meaningful impact wasn’t the wisest use of their assets. 
 
Christian Peterson is the Operations Manager at LeagueSafe.com. He is also a contributing writer at Vikings.com and a co-host of the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on KFAN 100.3 FM.
 
Follow Christian on Twitter: @CP_ChristianP

VikesCentric: Two holes plugged within three hours

Posted by: Bo Mitchell under The draft, Vikings, NFL draft, Vikings fans, Adrian Peterson Updated: April 27, 2012 - 11:00 AM
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The Minnesota Vikings filled two of the most glaring holes in their starting lineup within a span of three hours Thursday night, selecting USC left tackle Matt Kalil and Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith with a pair of first-round selections.

 
It was a crazy and entertaining evening for die-hard NFL fans, and it went by quickly despite the eight draft day trades and slower-than-necessary start.
 
And by slower-than-necessary start I mean: why wasn't Andrew Luck already standing on the stage as Commissioner Roger Goodell opened the draft? Everyone knew Luck and Robert Griffin III were the first two picks, so why waste everyone's time? Why wait for Luck to take a call on his 2004 flip phone and talk to what could only have been every member of the Colts' front office?
 
Unnecessary.
 
Put him next to the commish, let them exchange a bear hug, give him a hat and jersey, snap a few thousand photos and move on. The action-packed first round could have come in under three hours had the parties involved not felt the need to milk the moment. But milking the moment year-round is one of the things the NFL does best. Fans just can't get enough of it and the NFL knows it.
 
Nevertheless, Vikings' fans had to appreciate every moment of last night's three-hour tour since their team came away with one of the best hauls.
 
A shrewd pre-draft trade by general manager Rick Spielman sent the Vikings' third overall pick to the Cleveland Browns for their fourth overall pick plus their selections in the fourth (118th pick), fifth (139th pick) and seventh (211th pick) rounds. The result: the Vikes got the left tackle they would have taken at three plus an additional three assets for Day 3 of the proceedings, bringing their total number of picks to 13 in the seven rounds.
 
Trading back up to grab Smith – a smart, versatile defender that looks like the future quarterback of this secondary -- with the 29th overall pick sealed the deal on what has the look of the most successful Vikings' first round since Adrian Peterson fell into their laps in 2007.
 
Well played, Mr. Spielman.
 
The Vikings' braintrust is receiving universal praise for their craftiness and quality selections on Thursday, and I suspect Spielman isn't done wheeling and dealing.
 
Of course grading any team immediately following the draft – much less following one round of the draft – is silly. Yes, the Vikings have to like what happened Thursday and they are in position to fill even more holes in their roster over the course of the next six rounds, but let's wait two or three years before we hand out grades.
 
All of these first-round picks are destined to be Pro Bowlers in the eyes of those who drafted them and their adoring fans, but if history is any indicator only a third of them will be.
 
I did some digging for SportsData last week and found that over the past decade, 319 players were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft (the Patriots didn't have a pick in 2008 because of "SpyGate") and only 98 of them (31 percent) have made even one Pro Bowl. Just 55 (17 percent) have made multiple Pro Bowls.
 
What did the numbers say about players selected at Kalil and Smith's positions? Just eight of the 39 offensive tackles selected in the last 10 first rounds of the NFL Draft have been to a Pro Bowl while nine of the 16 safeties picked in the last 10 first rounds have made the trip to Honolulu.
 
Notwithstanding the fact that the NFL may soon do the wise thing and eliminate future Pro Bowls, there is no guarantee the Vikings' two "can't-miss" picks will turn out to be Pro-Bowl caliber players.
 
For now, at least they look like two new starters, and that's good news for Vikings fans because there were a lot of holes that needed filling on this team.
 
 
Bo Mitchell is the Vice President of Content at SportsData and co-host of the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on KFAN 100.3 FM.
 
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

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