Michael Rand and I had a point-counterpoint item in today's paper regarding Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-two from his own 28 with 2:08 left and his team up by six points at Indianapolis.

I was against the call, siding with Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, etc. Michael took the more unconventional side that said it was a good decision. He cited the NY Times' Fifth Down blog, which took a look at Advanced NFL stats analysis and a breakdown by a computer program to show the Patriots' probability of winning was better if they went for it than if they punted.

Part of the reasoning is the Patriots were averaging 6.6 yards per play. That's fine if the computers are playing the game. I'd dismiss that by saying you can't compare a routine first-down play in the first quarter to a fourth-and-two with 2:08 left and the game on the line. At least not when humans are playing.

But I'd rather focus on some numbers of my own that I scratched out with a pencil this morning. Michael, who I do respect btw, said those of us who disagreed with the call did so because of laziness on our part. (OK, I admit I didn't crunch the numbers long hand. I did need some help from a calculator).

After crunching my own strictly cold, unemotional numbers to support my side of the argument, here goes:

. Patriots punter Chris Hanson averaged a 44.0-yard net Sunday. Using that number, we'll assume the Colts would have taken over at their 28-yard line. That would have required a 72-yard drive to win the game, not 29, as was the case when the Patriots were stopped.

. The Colts had 13 possessions before the fourth-and-two call. Only TWO OF THEIR DRIVES WERE LONGER THAN 72 yards. My math says that's only 15.38 percent. Seven of those drives ended in punts and two ended with Manning throwing an interception. So for WE CANNOT ASSUME THAT PEYTON WOULD HAVE SCORED JUST AS EASILY FROM 72 YARDS AS HE DID FROM 29 YARDS! That's an absolutely ridiculous assumption.

. And guess what the AVERAGE length of those 13 drives was. That's right: 29.07 yards! My math says that's .07 longer than the Colts needed to travel after stopping the Patriots short of the first down.

And, finally, I'm not saying Belichick was "crazy" or "stupid" for making the call. I just thought he was wrong. And I'm already suspecting that he'll be back in Lucas Oil Stadium for the AFC title game. And, knowing Belichick and the Colts' postseason struggles, the Patriots probably will win the game.

So Belichick is still a great coach who still has a two-game lead in his division. I just think he made the wrong decision on fourth-and-two. And I don't think it will have any lingering effect on his team. Every week is completely different in the NFL.

The bottom line in this Week 10 debate is there were two sides. Only one of them was proven disastrously wrong on Sunday night.