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The Fantasy Reality: Let sleepers lie

Scott Boehm, Getty/afp - Getty Images

Colts receiver Austin Collie is a good example of a sleeper pick team managers should leave on the bench in Week 1.

Fantasy football advice from Chris Carr and Michael Rand that falls somewhere between fantasy and reality.

Last update: September 10, 2009 - 12:44 AM

All right, RandBall, last chance to serve up some valuable expert preseason advice to the people. The season starts in a few hours, and I know the excitement is overtaking most of your senses and bodily functions, but I'm going to have to ask you to try to keep yourself together here for the next few minutes (and come down off the newsroom ceiling!) and be a professional. What are your final preseason words of wisdom? Don't overthink it? Ride your veterans early? Start Daunte Culpepper no matter what you read out of Detroit?

Michael Rand: Is there a greater feeling than realizing the NFL season starts TONIGHT? I will not calm down, good sir!

That said, I definitely think keeping it simple is the way to play it in Week 1. There are reasons you drafted people in the order you did, and this is not the time to be playing hunches on 13th-round sleepers who have yet to play a down this season. Jamal Lewis might prove to be old and decrepit. Steven Jackson might be a fantasy bust. But if each of them goes for 100 yards and a pair of TDs in Week 1 while sitting on your bench, you will be kicking yourself for overthinking a simple decision. ... However, if I could send a private message to only people in my leagues: Culpepper is a sure thing! A Week 1 play for sure!

Chris Carr: Speaking of your leagues and your sleepers, you drafted a guy last week I have never heard of. Who the heck is Austin Collie? Wait, better question: How much study time did you put in this offseason? There are, of course, some exceptions to the "Don't use your sleepers early" rule. Joe Flacco at home against Kansas City is tempting. Buffalo's Fred Jackson (with naughty Marshawn Lynch suspended) is trying to make a case for himself. And how 'bout our guy Percy Harvin? You gotta think Coach Childress will be eager to show how smart that pick was and get him going early in Cleveland.

Rand: Austin Collie, as of Wednesday afternoon, is officially the Colts' No. 3 receiver and will work quite a bit in the slot. Either that, or he is a Texas showdog. Either way, I'm expecting 700 yards and eight TDs from him this year. I really don't put in much study time. But I do look at offensively explosive teams to see if they might have any new players lurking around. I'm also really high on Marcus Flowers, a running back making noise for the Patriots, and Casey Tremaine, a tight end slated to make some red-zone catches with the Saints. (Or, perhaps I made both of those players up. Will you ever know?)

Carr: I think our massive 16-team Star Tribune league has psyched you out. You're reaching too deep into the sleeper pool. Save your Collies and your Tremaines for Week 7 when your guys are getting hauled off the field every five minutes. My last preseason piece of advice: Don't get too cute in Week 1. You drafted Chris Johnson to be your stud. Don't bench him against Pittsburgh. Maybe you're not Thomas Jones' No. 1 fan, but he's a bona fide starter so plug him in. You might love Chris Wells, but the dude isn't even starting yet. Get my drift? Stick with safe bets and get the Week 1 win. There will be plenty of time to impress your friends with your Austin Collies. (We should e-mail this to Austin Collie's mama. No one has ever written this much about Austin Collie.)

Rand: I like how you brought this full circle back to something we can agree on: Sleepers are nice for the later weeks, but don't overthink this week. Did I mention football starts tonight? (Loud primal scream.) Let the games begin.

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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
Sep 13 - at Cleveland 12:00 PM1034-20
Sep 20 - at Detroit 12:00 PM2027-13
Sep 27 - vs. San Francisco 12:00 PM3027-24
Oct 5 - vs. Green Bay 7:30 PM4030-23
Oct 11 - at St. Louis 12:00 PM5038-10
Oct 18 - vs. Baltimore 12:00 PM6033-31
Oct 25 - at Pittsburgh 12:00 PM6117-27
Nov 1 - at Green Bay 3:15 PM7138-26
Open     
Nov 15 - vs. Detroit 12:00 PM8127-10
Nov 22 - vs. Seattle 12:00 PM9135-9
Nov 29 - vs. Chicago 3:15 PM   
Dec 6 - at Arizona 3:15 PM   
Dec 13 - vs. Cincinnati 12:00 PM   
Dec 20 - at Carolina 7:20 PM   
Dec 28 - at Chicago 7:30 PM   
Jan 3 - vs. NY Giants 12:00 PM   

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