The Steelers are the latest logical choice to win the Super Bowl.

In other words, bye-bye Pittsburgh. Sorry, but it's the NFL way.

The Cowboys were Logical Choice I in August. They missed the playoffs and blamed it on T.O. having horns, a red tail and a pitchfork in addition to those team-high 10 touchdowns.

The Giants were Logical Choice II. They didn't shoot themselves not in the foot, but they did shoot themselves in the leg. Bye-bye, Eli.

The Titans were the last unbeaten team and Logical Choice III. They blew it so badly that defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz already has been demoted to Lions head coach.

The Jets had their 15 seconds at the top. Fourteen seconds later, they fired their coach and started looking for a soft spot to dump a certain retirementally challenged legend.

Carolina also spent time at the top after steamrolling Tampa Bay in prime time. The Colts won nine consecutive games to finish the regular season. Then the Chargers were the 8-8 team that -- all together now -- "nobody wants to face come playoff time!"

The one team that's been an underdog -- and at times a stinking dog -- through it all is Arizona. Even today, with the Cardinals at home in the NFC Championship Game, they are a four-point underdog against an Eagles team that went 9-6-1 this season.

In other words, why not the Cardinals?

"We're just going to stay humble and hope people keep doubting us," Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson told Sports Illustrated after last week's 33-13 divisional playoff win at Carolina. "We like it that way."

It's hard to put a finger on why exactly everyone doubted the Cardinals.

Was it the 9-7 record in the NFL's worst division? The four losses in the final six regular-season games? The 48 points allowed in Philly? The 40-point loss in New England? The 30 regular-season turnovers (more than any other team that made the playoffs). The 239 rushing yards allowed against the Vikings?

According to the Cardinals, they lost focus when they were 7-3 and the rest of their division was 3-7 or 2-8.

"When you combine that with the fact that we were playing teams that really needed the wins to get into the playoffs, things got ugly," defensive end Bertrand Berry told Sports Illustrated.

It seems like a convenient explanation. It also seems plausible considering the 180-degree turnaround Arizona has made, particularly on defense, while tossing aside NFC South powers Atlanta and Carolina during its playoff run.

With defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast using more 4-3 fronts and introducing an aggressive, penetrating style, the Cardinals gave up a combined 135 yards rushing to the teams ranked second (Falcons) and third (Panthers) in rushing during the regular season. Shutting down the running games led to harassing the QBs, which led to nine takeaways, including seven interceptions.

The Eagles have turned their season around, too. In their past six games, including playoff victories over the Vikings and Giants, the Eagles have allowed an average of 10.8 points. They also enter today's game knowing they whipped the Cardinals 48-20 on the strength of four Donovan McNabb TD passes on Thanksgiving night.

Of course, the Cardinals were the last team to score more than 14 points on the Eagles. Quarterback Kurt Warner threw three interceptions in that game, but he also threw three touchdown passes, which are two more than the Eagles have given up in the past six games combined.

"They're running [the ball] better in the playoffs," Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson said this week. "But their strength is their throwing game with Warner and those receivers. The ball is going to be flying."

The Cardinals have never been to the Super Bowl. Heck, this is their first NFC Championship Game.

In other words, why not the Cardinals?

After all, with apologies to the state of Pennsylvania, the logical guesses for today's games are:

Eagles 28, Cardinals 21.

Steelers 9, Ravens 8.

Mark Craig • mcraig@startribune.com