Playoff waltz: Survive the first five

Beginning Oct. 12, the Vikings will find themselves gliding on a red carpet to the playoffs -- if they can get past the bouncers.

The first five games on the Vikings' 2008 schedule don't exactly represent a murderer's row, but they're not the Gophers' nonconference schedule, either.

At Green Bay. Indianapolis and Carolina at the Metrodome. At Tennessee, then at New Orleans. The Vikings will start with those five challenges when they might be as weak as they'll be -- in terms of injuries, suspensions and rustiness -- all season.

Left tackle Bryant McKinnie, having brilliantly transitioned his Love Boat activities to dry land, will serve a four-game suspension to start the season, when the Vikings will be facing some of the NFL's best pass-rushing right defensive ends.

Two key free agents -- receiver Bernard Berrian and safety Madieu Williams -- are hurting or injured. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson hasn't played in two weeks and still has to prove he can play with pain.

Opposing defenses figured out how to stop Adrian Peterson at the end of last season, and the Vikings have to prove they know how to counter-punch against eight-man lines.

The Vikings might have as solid a roster as any team in the NFC, but they will not begin the season at full strength.

Starting Oct. 12, the schedule softens, and, yes, that is a reference to the Detroit Lions. Here are the Vikings' last 11 games: Detroit, at Chicago, Houston, Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, at Jacksonville, Chicago, at Detroit, at Arizona, Atlanta, N.Y. Giants.

Even if the Lions start well, which often happens, they'll probably be in full collapse by October. The Bears have been run into the ground, and might be every bit as lousy as Detroit. Atlanta is rebuilding, and the Giants are devastated by injuries and retirement.

Only one of those 11 -- at Jacksonville -- looks like a game the Vikings might not win even if they play well.

So the key to the 2008 season could be surviving the first five games, then beating Detroit and Chicago before the bye week of Oct. 26.

The key word is "survive," as in the March Madness phrase "survive and advance." Anything short of a disastrous first five weeks will set the Vikings up to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

And if the Vikings are as improved as they should be, if their front four is as dominant as promised, the first five weeks might not be as difficult as they appear on paper.

Sept 8: At Green Bay. The Packers won 13 games last year. They won't be that good this year, but they should be a handful on this Monday night, if Aaron Rodgers can handle the pressure of replacing Brett Favre in a Monday night showcase.

Sept. 14: Colts at Metro-dome. Tony Dungy returns, and if Peyton Manning is healthy, this is a tough draw. The Vikings could be 0-2.

Sept. 21: Carolina at Metro-dome. The Panthers have been perpetually overrated since playing the Patriots close in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Playing at home, the Vikings should win this one.

Sept. 28: At Tennessee. Vince Young has been perpetually overrated since winning the collegiate national title at Texas. He's fun to watch, but he doesn't put up many points. Peterson might win this one by himself. The Vikings should be at least 2-2 at this point.

Oct. 6: At New Orleans. Reggie Bush has been overrated since he was at USC and lost the national title to Young, and the Saints fell to earth last year.

If the Vikings play well in these five games, they could win three or four. A more realistic prediction would be two or three victories.

Assuming a reasonable level of health this season, two or three victories in the first five weeks should be enough to get the Vikings to 10 or more victories.

And that should be enough to win the bottom-heavy NFC North, or at least put the Vikings into the playoffs for the first time since Mike Tice, Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss still were Vikings.

Jim Souhan can be heard Sundays from 10 a.m.-noon on AM-1500 KSTP. jsouhan@startribune.com