Souhan: Early games will determine the endgame of Vikings season

To all of you Vikings fans who are thrilled with Mike Zimmer, encouraged by Norv Turner, excited by the start of the season, thrilled to get to watch Adrian Peterson again …

Hold that thought. Hold it for a long time.

Better yet, translate it into English, write it on Post-it note, stick it in an envelope marked "Open Oct. 13,'' and stick it in a safe.

You might need a reminder of all that is good and promising about this team in about six weeks.

There should be a rule that a new NFL head coach, like Zimmer, gets to start the season against the Jaguars or Browns. Instead, his "Welcome-to-the-hot-seat'' introduction will be a stretch of games that could ruin his mood, if not his first season.

The 2014 Vikings have built a strong roster with talent at the skill positions in Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph.

In the first six weeks of the schedule, though, they will face five teams with superior quarterbacks, who will be given the opportunity to pick on a Vikings secondary scrambling for starting-quality players. NFL games often turn on matchups, and the Vikings won't face an ideal matchup until they travel to Buffalo on Oct. 19.

Here's the breakdown:

Week 1 in St. Louis: This looks like the easiest matchup of the first six, especially after another season-ending injury to Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, but that doesn't mean it will be easy.

Shaun Hill is one of the league's smarter and better backup quarterbacks, and the Rams plan to run the ball regardless of who plays quarterback. Rams coach Jeff Fisher is in his third year in St. Louis. I don't know if he's a great coach, but he's a difficult coach against whom to play. His teams are physical and chippy, and have put up an admirable fight against the powerhouses of the NFC West.

Given the rest of the early schedule, this might be a must-win for the Vikings, but Vegas favors the Rams, making this nothing better than a might-win must-win.

Week 2 vs. Patriots: It's en vogue to say Tom Brady wasn't quite himself last year. Which is the wrong way of saying his receivers stunk. If Rob Gronkowski is healthy, and Tim Wright fits into the offense, Brady will have more than enough options against an unsettled Vikings secondary.

Week 3 at New Orleans: This is one of the toughest teams to play and places in which to play in the NFL. Two young receivers, Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills, have given the great Drew Brees plenty of options in the passing game.

Week 4: vs. Falcons: Atlanta has problems along the offensive front and on defense, but the Falcons passing offense should be frightening again with the return of Julio Jones from a foot injury.

Week 5 at Packers: Unless Montee Ball becomes a star this season for Denver, the Packers might have the best front-line trio of skill-position players in the NFL, with Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson all capable of statistically dumbfounding seasons. Lacy is a threat to lead the NFL in rushing despite playing for a West Coast passing team. The Vikings haven't won in Green Bay since Brett Favre's epic return in 2009.

Week 6 vs. Lions: The Lions tried to give a game to the Vikings in the 2013 opener at Detroit, but Christian Ponder would not accept it, and that began his fall from franchise quarterback to third-stringer. Detroit replaced Jim Schwartz, whose teams played as if they couldn't pass a collective marijuana test, with Jim Caldwell, known for his calm leadership. The Lions have added Golden Tate, one of the league's most sure-handed receivers, to play opposite Calvin Johnson, the best receiver in the game. The Lions also benched, then cut, one-dimensional Mikel LeShoure to give all of the snaps to dual threats Reggie Bush and grotesquely underrated Joique Bell. This is a talented and dangerous team.

If you see more two or more victories in that stretch, you are an optimist. If you see four, you might want to take a Breathalyzer before getting behind the wheel.

Starting in Week 7, at Buffalo, the schedule eases. If the Vikings can survive the first six games, and Zimmer and Turner are as good as their reputations suggest, this team could make a late push for the playoffs.

When the Vikings drafted a raw talent in Anthony Barr and their future quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, management made it clear that it was building for the long run. In six weeks, that might look even wiser.

Jim Souhan can be heard weekdays at noon and Sundays from 10 to noon on 1500 ESPN. @SouhanStrib / jsouhan@startribune.com