Matt Vensel is in his first year at the Star Tribune after covering the Ravens for the Baltimore Sun for six years. He is a Pittsburgh native and a Penn State grad. Follow him at @mattvensel.


Mark Craig has covered the NFL for 23 years, and the Vikings since 2003 for the Star Tribune. He is one of 44 Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors. Follow him at @markcraignfl.


Master Tesfatsion is the Star Tribune’s digital Vikings writer. He is a 2013 graduate of Arizona State and worked for mlb.com before arriving in Minneapolis. Follow him at @masterstrib.


NFL Draft Order (Week 16): Vikings could pick third

Posted by: Master Tesfatsion Updated: December 24, 2013 - 6:58 AM

Every Tuesday morning, we take a look at where the Vikings would pick in the 2014 NFL Draft if the season ended today.

Note: The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule where the team with the worst strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and gets a better pick. Strength of schedule is based off the win percentage of a team’s opponents, so there’s two ways to calculate it during the season. One would be to factor in a team’s entire 16-game schedule, or the other method would be to tally the records of games already played (the method used in this blog). At the end of the year, both methods will result in the same SOS percentage.

The day is drawing near. We will know where the Vikings will select in the 2014 NFL Draft on Sunday. First, we look at how the top 10 looks with a game remaining.

The Vikings lost but so did the other seven teams ahead of them. Here’s how the draft order looks right now (records and strength of schedule, if necessary, in parentheses):

1. Texans (2-13)

2. Rams [via Redskins] (3-12)

3. Jaguars (4-11) (.493)

4. Raiders (4-11) (.498)

5. Browns (4-11) (.520)

6. Falcons (4-11) (.540)

7. Bucs (4-11) (.569)

8. Vikings (4-10-1)          

9. Bills (6-9) (.507)

10. Titans (6-9) (.529)

With wins by the Giants, Bills and Titans, the Vikings in a worst-case scenario will select eighth. They’d lock that spot with a win over the Lions.

The Vikings won’t have a shot at the first or second overall pick, which will come down to either the Texans or the Rams. The third selection would be the best-case scenario, but the Vikings would need for five 4-11 teams to win with a loss to the Lions. They’re the only team in the bunch playing a game without playoff implications however (home team on right side).

Bucs vs. Saints

Browns vs. Steelers

Jaguars vs. Colts

Broncos vs. Raiders

Panthers vs. Falcons

The most realistic scenario seems to be a Vikings win and the eighth pick, which would still be a nice selection obviously.

And if the Vikings would’ve lost to the Packers rather than tie, they’d be tied with the Browns for the fifth spot (.520 strength of schedule) and would come down to the final tiebreaker method: a coin flip.

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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pmX42-10
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit NoonX17-3
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo NoonX17-16
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay NoonX19-13 ot
Nov 2 - vs. Washington NoonX29-26
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago NoonX21-13
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay NoonX24-21
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina NoonX31-13
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets NoonX30-24 ot
Dec 14 - at Detroit 3:25 pmX16-14
Dec 21 - at Miami NoonX37-35
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago NoonX13-9

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