Matt Vensel is in his first year at the Star Tribune after covering the Ravens for the Baltimore Sun for six years. He is a Pittsburgh native and a Penn State grad. Follow him at @mattvensel.


Mark Craig has covered the NFL for 23 years, and the Vikings since 2003 for the Star Tribune. He is one of 44 Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors. Follow him at @markcraignfl.


Master Tesfatsion is the Star Tribune’s digital Vikings writer. He is a 2013 graduate of Arizona State and worked for mlb.com before arriving in Minneapolis. Follow him at @masterstrib.


NFL Draft Order (Week 15): Vikings secure top 14 pick

Posted by: Master Tesfatsion Updated: December 17, 2013 - 9:03 AM

Every Tuesday morning, we take a look at where the Vikings would pick in the 2014 NFL Draft if the season ended today.

Note: The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule where the team with the worst strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and gets a better pick. Strength of schedule is based off the win percentage of a team’s opponents, so there’s two ways to calculate it during the season. One would be to factor in a team’s entire 16-game schedule, or the other method would be to tally the records of games already played (the method used in this blog). At the end of the year, both methods will result in the same SOS percentage.

With two games left, the Vikings have gone 3-2-1 in the second half of this season. Their latest win, a 48-30 victory over the Eagles, has dropped their draft selection significantly. The Vikings will still finish the season with a good draft selection however.

The Jaguars, Raiders, Browns and Bucs all lost and jumped ahead of the Vikings, who had the fourth pick last week. Here’s how the draft order looks right now (records and strength of schedule, if necessary, in parentheses):

1. Texans (2-12)

2. Rams [via Redskins] (3-11)

3. Raiders (4-10) (.485)

4. Jaguars (4-10) (.495)

5. Falcons (4-10) (.533)

6. Browns (4-10) (.536)

7. Bucs (4-10) (.577)

8. Vikings (4-9-1)            

9. Bills (5-9) (.510)

10. Titans (5-9) (.541)

11. Giants (5-9) (.551)

12. Steelers (6-8) (.487)

13. Jets (6-8) (.500)

14. Rams (6-8) (.556)

With the Steelers, Jets and Rams at six wins, if the Vikings win out and the other 13 teams lose out, they’d hold the 14th pick. The Vikings cannot drop beyond the 14th pick with two games remaining.

The Vikings aren’t even listed on Football Outsiders odds for the top pick or a top three pick anymore, which might not be a bad thing because there isn’t a quarterback to select in the top 10 outside of Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who still hasn’t announced whether he will declare for the NFL Draft.

But if the Vikings continue to fall in the draft order…Johnny Football anyone? Patrick Reusse thinks the Vikings should take the Texas A&M quarterback regardless of their draft position. Most draft analysts think Manziel will go mid-first round.

So here’s our weekly hypothetical look at where the Vikings would pick if they didn’t tie with the Packers:

1. Texans (2-11)

2. Rams [via Redskins] (3-11)

3. Raiders (4-10) (.485)

4. Jaguars (4-10) (.495)

5. Vikings (4-10) (.520)

6. Falcons (4-10) (.533)

7. Browns (4-10) (.536)

8. Bucs (4-10) (.577)

9. Bills (5-9) (.510)

10. Titans (5-9) (.541)

11. Giants (5-9) (.551)

12. Steelers (6-8) (.487)

13. Jets (6-8) (.500)

14. Rams (6-8) (.556)

The Vikings would have the fifth pick in the draft in that situation with the tiebreaker advantage over the Falcons, Browns and Bucs.

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Kansas City - WP: J. Vargas 6 FINAL
Cleveland - LP: C. Kluber 2
Toronto - LP: M. Castro 5 FINAL
Boston - WP: K. Uehara 6
Chicago WSox 0 Postponed
Baltimore 0
Tampa Bay - LP: B. Gomes 1 FINAL
NY Yankees - WP: J. Wilson 4
Washington - LP: D. Fister 4 FINAL
Atlanta - WP: E. Stults 8
NY Mets - WP: C. Torres 3 FINAL
Miami - LP: S. Cishek 1
Milwaukee - LP: J. Nelson 6 FINAL
Cincinnati - WP: J. Marquis 9
Pittsburgh - LP: V. Worley 0 FINAL
Chicago Cubs - WP: J. Hammel 4
Seattle - WP: T. Walker 3 FINAL
Texas - LP: Y. Gallardo 1
Detroit - WP: D. Price 5 FINAL
Minnesota - LP: T. Milone 4
Philadelphia - WP: C. Hamels 4 FINAL
St. Louis - LP: J. Lackey 1
Colorado - WP: T. Matzek 5 FINAL
Arizona - LP: C. Anderson 4
Houston - WP: P. Neshek 9 FINAL
San Diego - LP: J. Benoit 4
San Francisco - LP: T. Lincecum 3 FINAL
Los Angeles - WP: C. Frias 8
Atlanta 115 FINAL
Brooklyn 120
Milwaukee 94 FINAL
Chicago 88
Memphis 92 FINAL
Portland 99
Tampa Bay 5 FINAL
Detroit 2
NY Islanders 1 FINAL
Washington 2
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