Matt Vensel is in his first year at the Star Tribune after covering the Ravens for the Baltimore Sun for six years. He is a Pittsburgh native and a Penn State grad. Follow him at @mattvensel.

Mark Craig has covered the NFL for 23 years, and the Vikings since 2003 for the Star Tribune. He is one of 44 Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors. Follow him at @markcraignfl.

Master Tesfatsion is the Star Tribune’s digital Vikings writer. He is a 2013 graduate of Arizona State and worked for before arriving in Minneapolis. Follow him at @masterstrib.

2014 NFL draft order (week 12): Vikings fall two spots with tie

Posted by: Master Tesfatsion under NFL draft Updated: November 26, 2013 - 9:57 AM

Every Tuesday morning, we take a look at where the Vikings would pick in the 2014 NFL Draft if the season ended today.

If you were confused about how to react to a Vikings’ 26-26 tie against the Packers on Sunday, it’s likely the same feeling you’ll get when looking at how it impacts the NFL Draft order.

Technically, the tie counts as half a win in the standings, so the Vikings win percentage went up. As a result, they’re behind a few more teams this week.

Last week, the Vikings’ would’ve picked second if the season ended today (more on tiebreakers in a bit). This week, they jumped up two spots to fourth. Here’s the current top five (records in parentheses):

1. Texans (2-9)

2. Jaguars (2-9)

3. Falcons (2-9)

4. Vikings (2-8-1)

5. Rams [via Redskins] (3-8)

So what if the Vikings would’ve lost to the Packers? First let’s explain the tiebreaker procedure.

The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule where the team with the worst strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and gets a better pick.

Strength of schedule is based off the win percentage of a team’s opponents, so there’s two ways to calculate it during the season. One would be to factor in a team’s entire 16-game schedule, or the other method would be to tally the records of games already played (the method used above). The Texans have a .545 SOS percentage based off the 11 opponents they’ve played, which is the lower than the Jaguars (.579) and the Falcons (.595) and gives Houston the top pick at the moment.

Just like in that math class, there’s no right or wrong way about it. Both methods will result in the same percentage at the end of the season. This method is just preferred here because it gives us the draft order if the season ended after Week 12.

So if the Vikings would’ve lost to the Packers, they’d be in a four-way tie for the top pick. Because the Packers would win, it also impacts the Vikings’ SOS percentage, which jumps from .521 to .529. So here’s how the hypothetical tiebreaker would play out (SOS in parentheses):

                1. Vikings (.529)

                2. Texans (.545)

                3. Jaguars (.579)

                4. Falcons (.595)

The Vikings would have the top pick in the draft at the moment if they lost Sunday with a strength of schedule edge over the other 2-9 teams.

With a tie now in the record, strength of schedule won’t matter unless another bottom feeder draws as well. Strength of schedule changes every week, so it’ll be interesting to see at the end of the year how much that “half win” either hurts, or possibly helps, the Vikings down the road.


Baltimore - LP: W. Chen 1 FINAL
Boston - WP: J. Masterson 7
Chicago Cubs - WP: J. Arrieta 5 FINAL
Pittsburgh - LP: A. Caminero 2
NY Yankees - LP: C. Sabathia 1 FINAL
Detroit - WP: A. Simon 2
Cincinnati - WP: A. DeSclafani 6 FINAL
Milwaukee - LP: W. Peralta 1
Cleveland - LP: C. Allen 3 FINAL
Chicago WSox - WP: D. Robertson 4
Minnesota - LP: K. Gibson 1 FINAL
Kansas City - WP: E. Volquez 7
San Diego - WP: O. Despaigne 14 FINAL
Colorado - LP: J. De La Rosa 3
Oakland - WP: D. Otero 6 FINAL
LA Angels - LP: M. Shoemaker 3
Houston 7 Bottom 8th Inning
Seattle 5
Milwaukee 82 FINAL
Chicago 91
New Orleans 87 FINAL
Golden State 97
NY Rangers 2 FINAL
Pittsburgh 1
St. Louis 0 FINAL
Minnesota 3
Anaheim 5 FINAL(OT)
Winnipeg 4
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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pmX42-10
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit NoonX17-3
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo NoonX17-16
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay NoonX19-13 ot
Nov 2 - vs. Washington NoonX29-26
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago NoonX21-13
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay NoonX24-21
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina NoonX31-13
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets NoonX30-24 ot
Dec 14 - at Detroit 3:25 pmX16-14
Dec 21 - at Miami NoonX37-35
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago NoonX13-9




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