Matt Vensel is in his first year at the Star Tribune after covering the Ravens for the Baltimore Sun for six years. He is a Pittsburgh native and a Penn State grad. Follow him at @mattvensel.


Mark Craig has covered the NFL for 23 years, and the Vikings since 2003 for the Star Tribune. He is one of 44 Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors. Follow him at @markcraignfl.


Master Tesfatsion is the Star Tribune’s digital Vikings writer. He is a 2013 graduate of Arizona State and worked for mlb.com before arriving in Minneapolis. Follow him at @masterstrib.


2014 NFL draft order (week 12): Vikings fall two spots with tie

Posted by: Master Tesfatsion under NFL draft Updated: November 26, 2013 - 9:57 AM

Every Tuesday morning, we take a look at where the Vikings would pick in the 2014 NFL Draft if the season ended today.

If you were confused about how to react to a Vikings’ 26-26 tie against the Packers on Sunday, it’s likely the same feeling you’ll get when looking at how it impacts the NFL Draft order.

Technically, the tie counts as half a win in the standings, so the Vikings win percentage went up. As a result, they’re behind a few more teams this week.

Last week, the Vikings’ would’ve picked second if the season ended today (more on tiebreakers in a bit). This week, they jumped up two spots to fourth. Here’s the current top five (records in parentheses):

1. Texans (2-9)

2. Jaguars (2-9)

3. Falcons (2-9)

4. Vikings (2-8-1)

5. Rams [via Redskins] (3-8)

So what if the Vikings would’ve lost to the Packers? First let’s explain the tiebreaker procedure.

The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule where the team with the worst strength of schedule percentage wins the tiebreaker and gets a better pick.

Strength of schedule is based off the win percentage of a team’s opponents, so there’s two ways to calculate it during the season. One would be to factor in a team’s entire 16-game schedule, or the other method would be to tally the records of games already played (the method used above). The Texans have a .545 SOS percentage based off the 11 opponents they’ve played, which is the lower than the Jaguars (.579) and the Falcons (.595) and gives Houston the top pick at the moment.

Just like in that math class, there’s no right or wrong way about it. Both methods will result in the same percentage at the end of the season. This method is just preferred here because it gives us the draft order if the season ended after Week 12.

So if the Vikings would’ve lost to the Packers, they’d be in a four-way tie for the top pick. Because the Packers would win, it also impacts the Vikings’ SOS percentage, which jumps from .521 to .529. So here’s how the hypothetical tiebreaker would play out (SOS in parentheses):

                1. Vikings (.529)

                2. Texans (.545)

                3. Jaguars (.579)

                4. Falcons (.595)

The Vikings would have the top pick in the draft at the moment if they lost Sunday with a strength of schedule edge over the other 2-9 teams.

With a tie now in the record, strength of schedule won’t matter unless another bottom feeder draws as well. Strength of schedule changes every week, so it’ll be interesting to see at the end of the year how much that “half win” either hurts, or possibly helps, the Vikings down the road.

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Atlanta - LP: A. Wood 0 FINAL
Philadelphia - WP: A. Bastardo 1
Cleveland - LP: D. Salazar 5 FINAL
Detroit - WP: J. Verlander 7
Toronto - LP: R. Dickey 0 FINAL
Minnesota - WP: K. Gibson 7
Seattle - LP: J. Beimel 6 FINAL
Texas - WP: P. Figueroa 8
Los Angeles - WP: H. Ryu 2 FINAL
San Francisco - LP: M. Bumgarner 1
Colorado - WP: F. Morales 3 FINAL
San Diego - LP: I. Kennedy 1
St. Louis - WP: A. Wainwright 8 FINAL
Washington - LP: T. Jordan 0
Milwaukee - LP: R. Wooten 2 FINAL
Pittsburgh - WP: E. Volquez 11
NY Yankees - WP: C. Sabathia 10 FINAL
Tampa Bay - LP: D. Price 2
Toronto - LP: S. Santos 5 FINAL
Minnesota - WP: C. Fien 9
Boston - WP: J. Lester 3 FINAL
Chicago WSox - LP: R. Belisario 1
Kansas City - WP: J. Shields 5 FINAL
Houston - LP: S. Feldman 1
Philadelphia 1 FINAL
NY Rangers 4
Chicago 3 FINAL(OT)
St. Louis 4
Minnesota 4 FINAL(OT)
Colorado 5
Los Angeles 3 FINAL
San Jose 6
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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2013 preseason     
Aug 9 - vs. Houston 7 pmX27-13
Aug 16 - at Buffalo 6 pmX20-16
Aug 25 - at San Francisco 7 pmX34-14
Aug 29 - vs. Tennessee 7 pmX24-23
2013 regular season     
Sep 8 - at Detroit NoonX34-24
Sep 15 - at Chicago NoonX31-30
Sep 22 - vs. Cleveland NoonX31-27
Sep 29 - vs. Pittsburgh (in London) NoonX34-27
Oct 6 - Bye
Oct 13 - vs. Carolina NoonX35-10
Oct 21 - at. NY Giants 7:40 pmX23-7
Oct 27 - vs. Green Bay 7:30 pmX44-31
Nov 3 - at Dallas NoonX27-23
Nov 7 - vs. Washington 7:25 pmX34-27
Nov 17 - at Seattle 3:25 pmX41-20
Nov. 24 - at Green Bay Noon26-26
Dec 1 - vs. Chicago NoonX23-20
Dec 8 - at Baltimore NoonX29-26
Dec 15 - vs. Philadelphia NoonX48-30
Dec 22 - at Cincinnati NoonX42-14
Dec 29 - vs. Detroit NoonX14-13

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