Free agency: Bargains and busts

  • Updated: March 9, 2013 - 5:23 PM

Unlike the NBA, the NFL and its teams frown on their best players skipping from town to town while in the prime of their careers. So it’s worth understanding that the best players slated for this year’s free agency already have been taken off the market through franchise tags and multi-year deals in advance of Tuesday’s kickoff.

What’s left are a few gems and a whole lot of question marks, red flags and older name players well past their prime. Judging any deal obviously depends on the compensation involved. But as a rule of thumb, here is one person’s potential pitfalls to avoid and seven players to keep an eye on:

The rules in 2013

Over 28 in 2013? Move along, pal

The typical NFL player declines too rapidly and sometimes without warning. Signing older players can saddle a salary cap with too much “dead money” that’s still on the books while the player is out of the league. Sorry Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Sebastian Vollmer, Osi Umenyiora, Dwight Freeney, Charles Woodson, Ronde Barber and Brian Urlacher, to name a few.

Running backs? No thanks

Unless Adrian Peterson hits the market, skip running backs with high mileage. There are too many good, young, cheap models available to go spending money on a used one. Sorry Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Steven Jackson and slippery little LaRod Stephens-Howling.

Injuries? No way, no how

A doctor can clear a guy, but if the guy’s body is breaking down, it’s breaking down. Jake Long is 28 and might be the best left tackle of his generation. But are you willing to pay more than $10 million a year to a man who might be heading down the same path that Tony Boselli traveled? Sorry Jake, Brent Grimes, Danny Amendola, Fred Davis and Kenny Phillips.

Former first-rounders? Beware

Watch out for household names. If a former first-round draft pick is on this list in his 20s, he’s either a major injury risk, unreliable or he’s been a flop for the past four years. Take on a resurrection project only when it’s financially easy to bail when it fails. Sorry Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Seven to select

Keenan Lewis, CB, Steelers

Pittsburgh not only stands to lose the best receiver and overall player available (Mike Wallace), it’s also in danger of losing the best cornerback. He’s a big, confident corner on the rise. And he’s only 26.

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Cincinnati - WP: A. Simon 4 FINAL
Chicago Cubs - LP: J. Samardzija 1
St. Louis - LP: M. Wacha 1 FINAL
Washington - WP: G. Gonzalez 3
Milwaukee - WP: K. Lohse 5 FINAL
Pittsburgh - LP: C. Morton 3
Toronto - WP: S. Delabar 3 FINAL
Cleveland - LP: M. Rzepczynski 2
LA Angels - WP: J. Weaver 11 FINAL
Detroit - LP: D. Smyly 6
Atlanta - WP: A. Harang 6 FINAL
NY Mets - LP: J. Niese 0
Baltimore - WP: C. Tillman 8 FINAL
Boston - LP: J. Lackey 4
NY Yankees - LP: A. Warren 5 FINAL
Tampa Bay - WP: J. McGee 11
Seattle - LP: Y. Medina 4 FINAL
Miami - WP: S. Cishek 8
Chicago WSox - LP: F. Paulino 0 FINAL
Texas - WP: M. Perez 12
Minnesota - LP: R. Nolasco 0 FINAL
Kansas City - WP: J. Vargas 5
Philadelphia - LP: J. Pettibone 1 FINAL
Colorado - WP: T. Chatwood 12
Houston 3 Bottom 7th Inning
Oakland 10
San Francisco - LP: M. Cain 1 FINAL
San Diego - WP: T. Ross 2
Arizona 1 Bottom 8th Inning
Los Angeles 1
Montreal 4 FINAL
Tampa Bay 1
Detroit 1 FINAL
Boston 0
Dallas 2 FINAL
Anaheim 3
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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2013 preseason     
Aug 9 - vs. Houston 7 pmX27-13
Aug 16 - at Buffalo 6 pmX20-16
Aug 25 - at San Francisco 7 pmX34-14
Aug 29 - vs. Tennessee 7 pmX24-23
2013 regular season     
Sep 8 - at Detroit NoonX34-24
Sep 15 - at Chicago NoonX31-30
Sep 22 - vs. Cleveland NoonX31-27
Sep 29 - vs. Pittsburgh (in London) NoonX34-27
Oct 6 - Bye
Oct 13 - vs. Carolina NoonX35-10
Oct 21 - at. NY Giants 7:40 pmX23-7
Oct 27 - vs. Green Bay 7:30 pmX44-31
Nov 3 - at Dallas NoonX27-23
Nov 7 - vs. Washington 7:25 pmX34-27
Nov 17 - at Seattle 3:25 pmX41-20
Nov. 24 - at Green Bay Noon26-26
Dec 1 - vs. Chicago NoonX23-20
Dec 8 - at Baltimore NoonX29-26
Dec 15 - vs. Philadelphia NoonX48-30
Dec 22 - at Cincinnati NoonX42-14
Dec 29 - vs. Detroit NoonX14-13

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