Matt Vensel is in his first year at the Star Tribune after covering the Ravens for the Baltimore Sun for six years. He is a Pittsburgh native and a Penn State grad. Follow him at @mattvensel.


Mark Craig has covered the NFL for 23 years, and the Vikings since 2003 for the Star Tribune. He is one of 44 Pro Football Hall of Fame selectors. Follow him at @markcraignfl.


Master Tesfatsion is the Star Tribune’s digital Vikings writer. He is a 2013 graduate of Arizona State and worked for mlb.com before arriving in Minneapolis. Follow him at @masterstrib.


Week 17 Picks & Power Rankings: Dome too much for Pack?

Posted by: Mark Craig under Vikings, AFC, Bears, Lions, NFC, Packers, Super Bowl, Vikings fans, Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, Percy Harvin, Vikings draft Updated: December 28, 2012 - 7:27 AM
What else would you rather do on a Friday morning than watch a poor man swing away at his weekly NFL Picks and Power Rankings? We’ll even throw in some extra purple with Three Reasons for Optimism and Three Reasons to Go `Uh-Oh.’
 
Power rankings
TOP THREE
 
1, Broncos (12-3)
Last week: No. 1.
Comment: Twelve wins. Ten-game winning streak. Sounds like pretty much any other Peyton Manning season the past decade or so. Only this team also ranks No. 3 in defense. With this offense, the Broncos might be better off not having home-field advantage. Manning might want to spend the AFC title game indoors in Houston than outdoors in Denver.
 
2. Falcons (13-2)
Last week: No. 2.
Comment: I don’t believe any records are kept on this, but Atlanta might be the most overlooked 13-2 team ever. Why? Well, for starters, their past two seasons have seen them go 23-9 in the regular season and 0-2 with a 72-23 point differential in the playoffs. The Falcons also haven’t won a playoff game since 2004.
 
3. Seahawks (10-5)
Last week: No. 8.
Comment: The Vikings have Adrian Peterson, but Seattle is the more productive running team. They have three guys averaging 4.6 yards or better with over 350 yards. Marshawn Lynch has 1,490 and 11 TDs on 297 carries (5.0). QB Russell Wilson has 431 yards on 83 carries (5.1). And Robert Turbin has 359 yards on 78 carries. (4.6). So how has Russell, a rookie third-round draft pick, responded with the benefits of having this No. 2-ranked running game? He’s completed 63.4 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and a 98.0 passer rating. He’s also helped the Seahawks win their last three games by a combined score of 150-30, including a 42-13 win over the 49ers last week.
 
 
BOTTOM THREE
 
30. Jaguars (2-13)
Last week: No. 30.
Comment: Need further proof that Tom Coughlin is a good coach? Here you go: Since the Jaguars fired Coughlin 10 years ago, Coughlin has more Super Bowl wins (2) than the Jaguars have playoff victories (1).
 
31. Lions (4-11)
Last week: No. 31.
Comment: Unfortunately for Calvin Johnson’s receiving numbers, this is the final week that the Lions will be able to fall hopelessly behind in a meaningless game.
 
32. Chiefs (2-12)
Last week: No. 32.
Comment: The Chiefs rank last in interceptions thrown (20) and interceptions caught (7). Ouch.
 
 
6. Packers (11-4)
9. Vikings (9-6)
13. Bears (9-6)
 
 
NFC NORTH
 
6. Packers (11-4)
Last week: No. 7.
Comment: Mike McCarthy won’t win NFL Coach of the Year, but he at least deserves some thought for no other reason than leading this team to a 10-2 mark after the “Fail Mary” fiasco in Seattle. When the replacement officials botched that last-second touchdown that gave Seattle the win and essentially ended the labor dispute with the regular officials, the Packers were 1-2 and looking at three more road games in their next four weeks.
 
9. Vikings (8-6)
Last week: No. 11.
Comment: If not for the “Fail Mary,” the Packers would have less to play for when they face the Vikings on Sunday. Green Bay would have the No. 2 seed and a bye wrapped up. And the Vikings wouldn’t be looking at the likely scenario of having to travel to Green Bay next week if they made the playoffs.  
 
14. Bears (8-6)
Last week: No. 13.
Comment: He’s good, mind you. But at what point do we give pause before we keep referring to Jay Cutler as an elite quarterback and therefore a thorn in the Vikings’ side for years to come? Cutler has 18 TDs and 14 INTs. Christian Ponder has 15 and 12. Cutler an 80.2 passer rating. Ponder has a 78.8. I won’t compare the completion percentages since Ponder has no passing game beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage. Cutler needs better protection, but he also needs to complete better than 58.8 percent of his passes.
 
31. Lions (4-10).
Last week: No. 31.
 
 
THE REST
 
4. Patriots (11-4); 5. Redskins (9-6); 7. 49ers (10-4-1); 8. Colts (10-5); 10. Bengals (9-6); 11. Texans (12-3); 12. Ravens (10-5); 14. Saints (7-8); 15. Cowboys (8-7); 16. Panthers (6-9);
17. Rams (7-7-1); 18. Dolphins (7-8); 19. Chargers (6-9); 20. Steelers (7-8); 21. Giants (8-7); 22. Titans (5-10); 23. Browns (5-10); 24. Jets (6-9); 25. Bills (5-10); 26. Cardinals (5-10); 27. Raiders (4-11); 28. Eagles (4-11); 29. Buccaneers (6-9)
 
VIKINGS
THREE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
1, The first drive: It’s baby steps, but given the state of this offense, especially without Percy Harvin, offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave deserves a lot of credit for giving Ponder an early script that has been tremendously successful during the team’s current three-game winning streak. In the first drives against Chicago, St. Louis and Houston, Ponder has looked decisive, confident and all the other things he lacks far too often. He’s 7 of 7 for 111 yards, one rushing touchdown and one passing touchdown. The other drive ended with Adrian Peterson rushing for a touchdown. The Vikings never trailed after those touchdowns.
 
2, Peterson’s high standards: It’s been funny to hear people talk about how the Texans “shut down” or “took away” the Vikings’ run game. If running for 174 yards on 42 carries (4.1) is “shut down,” then shut me down every week. Yes, Peterson didn’t run for 150 yards, but the NFL has ruled that guys who aren’t chasing Eric Dickerson are allowed to carry the ball, too. Plus, I might be one of the few who actually was impressed that Peterson managed to get 86 yards the way the Texans played that game. Houston had cornerbacks completely ignoring the passing game while darting in from the edges to tackle Peterson whether he had the ball or not. Twenty-two of Peterson’s carries went for 25 yards. But three of them went for 61. All in all, it was a very productive running game.
 
3, Defense and the Dome: Before getting thumped 23-6 last week, the Texans hadn’t gone without a touchdown since Matt Schaub joined the team. And the Vikings hadn’t given up fewer points since beating Atlanta 24-3 in the 2007 opener, which was Peterson’s NFL debut. The Vikings haven’t played with this much confidence on defense in a very long time. And they get the significant edge of playing this game at the Metrodome. The Packers have a great passing attack, obviously, but they’re also 27th in the league in sacks allowed per pass play.
 
THREE REASONS TO GO `UH-OH’
1, Packer swagger: No team in the league – other than whichever one Peyton Manning happens to play for – goes into a game with a higher level of confidence than the Packers. It doesn’t matter who’s hurt, where the game is being played or whether the replacement officials cheated them the week before. Aaron Rodgers gives this team a consistency that Brett Favre never did. And right now, the Packers have won a franchise-record 12 consecutive division games.
 
2, Ponder’s nerves: In my ledger, Ponder has played eight games in which I’ve felt he’s shown that the Vikings can continue to build around him as the long-term answer at QB. That means he’s played seven – in my mind – in which he’s shown the opposite. That point is probably moot because the consensus feeling is this next offseason will be bone dry when it comes to quality QBs via the draft, free agency and trade. So Ponder gets at least one more year. Playing well at home against the Packers with the playoffs on the line sure would help. Have you ever been at a wedding and your tie is too tight and you’re miserable? And you get to the reception and you get to loosen the tie and you feel fantastic? A win sure would loosen the noose that Ponder’s wearing.  
 
3, `Claymaker’ is back: Vikings fans kind of figured out that Packers linebacker Clay Matthews was pretty good when he ripped the ball out of Peterson’s hands and returned it for a touchdown as a rookie in 2009. Peterson ran for 210 yards against the Packers four weeks ago. But Matthews didn’t play in that game. Asked how big a deal that was not to have Matthews, coach Mike McCarthy said, “He’s our best player on defense.” In other words, it mattered. Plus, the Packers were humiliated by poor tackling. They’ll give a much better effort this time.
 
THE PICKS
Vikings 24, Packers 21: Blair Walsh opened the regular season with a winning field goal in overtime. He’ll end it with one against the Packers. The Packers are the better team. And they’re on a 9-1 roll. But I’m going with the home team and the fact the Vikings essentially need this to make the playoffs. Sure, they can get in with a loss if the Bears, Giants and Cowboys also lose. But what are the chances in the NFL that three teams you need to lose are going to lose?
 
Record picking Vikings games: 8-5.
 
GB minus-3 ½ at VIK: Vikings by 3.
NYJ plus-3 ½ at BUF: Bills by 7.
MIA plus-10 at NE: Patriots by 14.
BAL plus-3 at CIN: Bengals by 7.
CLE off at PIT: Steelers by 7.
JAC plus-4 at TEN: Titans by 7.
PHI plus-7 ½ at NYG: Giants by 3.
DAL plus-3 at WAS: Redskins by 10.
CHI minus-3 at DET: Bears by 7.
TB off at ATL: Buccaneers by 3.
CAR plus-5 at NO: Saints by 7.
KC plus-16 at DEN: Broncos by 10.
OAK off at SD: Chargers by 14.
ARI plus-16 ½ at SF: 49ers by 10.
STL plus-10 ½ at SEA: Seahawks by 14.
 
 
Overall Record Last Week: 10-6. Vs. Spread: 8-8
 
Record Season: 127-76-1. Vs. Spread: 99-99-1.
 
 
UPSET SPECIAL
HOU minus-6 ½ at IND.
 
Colts 28, Texans 20: The Texans still need to win to clinch home-field advantage after last week’s lifeless 23-6 loss to the Vikings at home. But they’re heading for the perfect storm: A division road game that features the return of Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who has spent the past three months battling leukemia.
 
Last week: CHI minus-5 ½ at ARI. Prediction: Cardinals 28, Bears 21. Actual: Bears 28, Cardinals 13.
Record: 8-7.

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Buffalo 17 FINAL
New England 9
Cleveland 10 FINAL
Baltimore 20
Dallas 44 FINAL
Washington 17
Indianapolis 27 FINAL
Tennessee 10
Jacksonville 17 FINAL
Houston 23
San Diego 7 FINAL
Kansas City 19
NY Jets 37 FINAL
Miami 24
Chicago 9 FINAL
Minnesota 13
Philadelphia 34 FINAL
NY Giants 26
New Orleans 23 FINAL
Tampa Bay 20
Carolina 34 FINAL
Atlanta 3
Detroit 20 FINAL
Green Bay 30
Oakland 14 FINAL
Denver 47
Arizona 17 FINAL
San Francisco 20
St. Louis 6 FINAL
Seattle 20
Cincinnati 17 FINAL
Pittsburgh 27
Arizona 1/3/15 3:35 PM
Carolina
Baltimore 1/3/15 7:15 PM
Pittsburgh
Detroit 103 FINAL
Cleveland 80
Houston 106 FINAL
San Antonio 110
Oklahoma City 107 FINAL
Dallas 112
New York 79 FINAL
Portland 101
Toronto 116 FINAL
Denver 102
Phoenix 116 FINAL
LA Lakers 107
Toronto 4 FINAL
Florida 6
Vancouver 1 FINAL(OT)
Anaheim 2
Tulane 57 FINAL
St Johns 82
Central Conn St 48 FINAL
Connecticut 81
Iona 81 FINAL
Drexel 62
Concordia (MI) 42 FINAL
Eastern Mich 100
Harvard 46 FINAL
Arizona State 56
Longwood 64 FINAL
Ball State 69
Sacred Heart 76 FINAL
Brown 79
Colgate 64 FINAL
Columbia 69
MD-Eastern Shore 78 FINAL
Duquesne 69
UNC Greensboro 50 FINAL
East Carolina 71
Marist 64 FINAL
Elon 69
NJIT 71 FINAL
Lafayette 76
Cincinnati Christian 58 FINAL
Liberty 78
Morgan State 53 FINAL
Marquette 81
Campbell 56 FINAL
Samford 65
Bucknell 71 FINAL
Siena 73
Long Beach State 67 FINAL
Syracuse 85
Coppin State 80 FINAL
Evansville 85
UMKC 73 FINAL
Indiana State 70
Hofstra 88 FINAL
Long Island 62
Coast Guard 48 FINAL
Army 93
Thomas (GA) 48 FINAL
High Point 85
Texas Southern 58 FINAL
Kansas State 56
Rutgers 59 FINAL
Monmouth 58
NC Wesleyan 54 FINAL
NC A&T 58
South Dakota St 63 FINAL
Northern Iowa 74
Central Penn College 69 FINAL
Radford 119
Bowling Green 79 FINAL
South Florida 70
Harris-Stowe 66 FINAL
SE Missouri St 94
Robert Morris-IL 56 FINAL
SIU Edwardsville 104
Northland College 59 FINAL
North Dakota St 83
Milwaukee 60 FINAL
South Dakota 84
Northwestern St 92 FINAL
Arkansas 100
Saint Peters 59 FINAL
Cornell 52
St Katherine 62 FINAL
Fresno State 93
Haskell 42 FINAL
Oral Roberts 94
Wake Forest 65 FINAL
Richmond 63
Fla Gulf Coast 57 FINAL
Xavier 71
SD Christian 45 FINAL
Northern Ariz 71
Judson 46 FINAL
IUPU-Ft Wayne 80
Ill-Chicago 60 FINAL
Bradley 68
Loyola-Maryland 61 FINAL
Fairfield 59
Miss Valley St 53 FINAL
Houston 80
Lehigh 58 FINAL
UMBC 55
Delaware State 56 FINAL
Temple 66
Belmont 56 FINAL
Butler 67
Howard 59 FINAL
Fordham 74
NW Christian 67 FINAL
Nevada 81
UC Davis 83 FINAL
Washington St 90
Abilene Christian 81 FINAL
Grand Canyon 83
UCLA 50 FINAL
Alabama 56
Stony Brook 62 FINAL
Washington 57
Buffalo 56 FINAL
Wisconsin 68
CS-Bakersfield 53 2nd Half 0:06
California 50
Cincinnati 17 FINAL
Virginia Tech 33
(15) Arizona State 36 FINAL
Duke 31
Miami-Florida 21 FINAL
So Carolina 24
Boston College 30 FINAL
Penn State 31
(25) Nebraska 42 FINAL
(24) USC 45
Texas A&M 12/29/14 1:00 PM
West Virginia
Oklahoma 12/29/14 4:30 PM
(18) Clemson
Arkansas 12/29/14 8:00 PM
Texas
Notre Dame 12/30/14 2:00 PM
(22) LSU
(13) Georgia 12/30/14 5:45 PM
(20) Louisville
Maryland 12/30/14 9:00 PM
Stanford
(9) Ole Miss 12/31/14 11:30 AM
(6) TCU
(21) Boise State 12/31/14 3:00 PM
(12) Arizona
(8) Miss State 12/31/14 7:00 PM
(10) Georgia Tech
(19) Auburn 1/1/15 11:00 AM
(17) Wisconsin
(7) Michigan State 1/1/15 11:30 AM
(4) Baylor
(16) Missouri 1/1/15 12:00 PM
Minnesota
(2) Florida State 1/1/15 4:00 PM
(3) Oregon
(5) Ohio State 1/1/15 7:30 PM
(1) Alabama
Houston 1/2/15 11:00 AM
Pittsburgh
Iowa 1/2/15 2:20 PM
Tennessee
(11) Kansas State 1/2/15 5:45 PM
(14) UCLA
Washington 1/2/15 9:15 PM
Oklahoma State
East Carolina 1/3/15 11:00 AM
Florida
Toledo 1/4/15 8:00 PM
Arkansas State
Drexel 71 FINAL
Miami-Ohio 54
Holy Cross 63 FINAL
Norfolk State 62
East Carolina 62 FINAL
South Florida 69
(10) Oregon State 63 FINAL
(8) Tennessee 74
Providence 51 FINAL
Boston College 79
Florida A&M 47 FINAL
Miami-Florida 83
Oakland 69 FINAL
Central Michigan 74
Chattanooga 59 FINAL
SIU-Edwardsville 49
Fairfield 59 FINAL
La Salle 73
St Francis-PA 59 FINAL
Pittsburgh 97
Milwaukee 72 FINAL
IUPU-Ft Wayne 78
Gardner-Webb 59 FINAL
Longwood 63
New Hampshire 58 FINAL
Manhattan 54
Bucknell 68 FINAL
Binghamton 57
Northeastern 70 FINAL
Albany 67
George Mason 70 FINAL
Towson 72
Richmond 59 FINAL
William & Mary 56
Tulane 60 FINAL
Cincinnati 50
North Florida 51 FINAL
Florida 63
(14) Georgia 51 FINAL
Seton Hall 70
Tennessee St 75 FINAL
(12) Kentucky 87
American Univ 64 FINAL
Wake Forest 77
Massachusetts 78 FINAL
Boston U 57
Quinnipiac 69 FINAL
Saint Josephs 67
Lafayette 49 FINAL
Saint Peters 34
Northwestern 61 FINAL
(20) Michigan State 57
Duquesne 82 FINAL
Lehigh 75
George Washington 72 FINAL
Loyola-Maryland 49
(17) Rutgers 66 FINAL
Indiana 51
(24) Green Bay 66 FINAL
Dayton 72
Western Mich 55 FINAL
Stony Brook 59
Davidson 67 FINAL
Virginia 57
UNC Greensboro 61 FINAL
LSU 82
Denver 63 FINAL
North Texas 55
VA Commonwealth 63 FINAL
Coppin State 52
Huston-Tillotson 36 FINAL
Houston Baptist 86
Lamar 63 FINAL
Rice 97
Miss Valley St 40 FINAL
Alabama 71
Saint Louis 63 FINAL
Eastern Illinois 49
Middle Tennessee 98 FINAL
Tenn Tech 76
Penn State 52 FINAL
(23) Iowa 77
Purdue 62 FINAL
Illinois 55
DePaul 99 FINAL
Illinois State 62
Sam Houston St 46 FINAL
Wichita State 70
South Dakota 76 FINAL
TX-San Antonio 69
(4) Notre Dame 82 FINAL
UCLA 67
Coll of Charleston 51 FINAL
SC State 60
Alcorn State 53 FINAL
Texas-El Paso 63
Dartmouth 76 FINAL
Niagara 70
Colgate 68 FINAL
Siena 80
Michigan 53 FINAL
Wisconsin 63
Fla Gulf Coast 73 FINAL
CS-Northridge 64
Yale 51 FINAL
(25) Arizona State 69
UC Santa Barbara 34 FINAL
(16) Stanford 90
Long Island 63 FINAL
Long Beach St 71
Jackson State 56 FINAL
Louisiana 65
Eureka 50 FINAL
Western Ill 91
Cornell 59 FINAL
(22) Syracuse 76
Temple 58 FINAL
Memphis 57
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Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pmX42-10
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit NoonX17-3
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo NoonX17-16
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay NoonX19-13 ot
Nov 2 - vs. Washington NoonX29-26
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago NoonX21-13
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay NoonX24-21
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina NoonX31-13
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets NoonX30-24 ot
Dec 14 - at Detroit 3:25 pmX16-14
Dec 21 - at Miami NoonX37-35
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago Noon

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