Deep draft could lead to flurry of trades after Luck, Griffin III

  • Article by: MARK CRAIG , Star Tribune
  • Updated: April 25, 2012 - 11:52 PM
hide

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck will go No. 1 in Thursday's draft, followed by Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. Things could get interesting after that.

Photo: Paul Sakuma, Associated Press

CameraStar Tribune photo galleries

Cameraview larger

Months of smokescreens, planted rumors, half-truths and bald-faced lies ends Thursday night when 32 teams finally show the hands they hope will lead them past the pitfalls of the 77th NFL draft and onto the right path toward a Super Bowl victory.

The first two teams -- Indianapolis and Washington -- will take quarterbacks Andrew Luck of Stanford and Robert Griffin III of Baylor, respectively. Luck replaces Peyton Manning, while RG3 has to live up to the Redskins' decision to trade three first-round picks and two second-rounders to move up four spots.

No pressure there.

The fun could start at No. 3, where Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman has done his poker-faced best to paint four equal options: trading down or selecting Southern California left tackle Matt Kalil, Louisiana State cornerback Morris Claiborne or Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon.

This is the sixth draft that Spielman has directed for the Vikings, but his first with final say.

"I'm very excited, not to be in this position [coming off a 3-13 season], but to be in this position at No. 3 because you're going to have to make a decision that's going to kind of set the cornerstone of our future," Spielman said. "So whether we stay at No. 3 or not, that first pick, we're hoping, is going to have a huge impact on our organization."

A flurry of activity could ensue after the third pick as several other teams look to trade down and collect more picks in what's widely considered a deep draft, particularly at receiver, cornerback and defensive tackle -- all positions of need for the Vikings.

The three-day event begins with the first round Thursday night. So sit back and pace your beverage intake while we toss out four draft-related questions to ponder.

1. Which QB will have the better rookie year?

The bar for rookie quarterback play continued to be raised last year when No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards and ran for 14 touchdowns, an NFL record for quarterbacks.

Many experts consider Luck to be the best quarterback prospect since John Elway came out of Stanford in 1983. But it's RG3 who's expected to have the better NFL start because the Redskins have a better team and invested more in free agency.

"The Colts have so many holes, it almost on paper looks like an expansion team," said ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. "It wouldn't surprise me if they're picking No. 1 again next year. Andrew Luck, you just hope he can survive with this personnel around him."

Kiper said the Colts' real pressure this week is using the nine other picks they have to make Luck's supporting cast better.

"If Andrew Luck doesn't look great, it's not his fault," Kiper Jr. said.

Answer: RG3.

2.Who is the No. 1 boom-or-bust player?

This is the first time since 1999 that quarterbacks will be taken 1-2. But neither one of them is considered a boom-or-bust prospect. Right or wrong, they're both widely considered future booms.

But that's not to say there isn't a quarterback competing for the top of that list.

No player has been discussed more in recent weeks than Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. We'll find out soon enough whether he's truly a hot prospect worthy of trading up for or the subject of considerable pre-draft gamesmanship.

"A boom-or-bust kind of guy is Tannehill," said NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock. "He's a franchise guy, but you've only seen 19 [college] starts."

Others on that list, according to Mayock: offensive tackles Mike Adams (Ohio State) and Jonathan Martin (Stanford), as well as defensive linemen Dontari Poe (Memphis) and Quinton Coples (North Carolina).

"Coples could be an All-Pro," Mayock said. "But he has bust potential written all over him."

Answer: Tannehill.

3. Will Hill fall to No. 35?

Georgia Tech receiver Stephen Hill is an intriguing possibility for the Vikings at No. 35. If he makes it past the bottom of the first round, which is looking less likely.

The 6-4, 215-pounder became the fastest riser in this year's draft when he ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the scouting combine. But he's also raw, having played in an offense that ran the ball 77 percent of the time.

"You're betting a lot on his athletic ability and not a whole lot on college production if you take him high," Mayock said.

Answer: No.

4. Who's the team to watch?

A big deal is made of free agency, but Super Bowl teams are built primarily with consistently shrewd selections throughout the draft and unearthed rookie free agents that eventually shock the league.

No team does this better than the Steelers, which makes it only fitting that they've won a record six of the eight Super Bowls they've played.

In the past 10 drafts, Steelers General Manager Kevin Colbert has ignored free agency while plucking starters from all seven rounds and the pool of undrafted rookies. Twelve of those homegrown players have become Pro Bowl players, which ties the Cowboys and Patriots for the second-highest total in the league over that period. Only the Chargers (16) have had more.

Colbert has found a franchise QB at No. 11 (Ben Roethlisberger). He has found four Pro Bowl players with mid-to-late first-round picks. He has found LaMarr Woodley in the second round, Chris Hope and receiver Mike Wallace in the third round, Antonio Brown in the sixth round and Brett Keisel in the seventh round. He has also signed Willie Parker and James Harrison, the 2008 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, as undrafted rookies.

"The Packers, Patriots and Steelers, those are the teams that build through the draft, don't overpay in free agency, and ... tend to stay true to certain things that they believe in," said ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay. "And their scouts all know what they're looking for in positions and the players that fit what they're doing."

The Giants and Ravens have had similar success. In the past 10 drafts, they've each had 11 draft picks become Pro Bowl players. The defending champion Giants also have won two of the past five Super Bowls.

Answer: The Steelers. Pittsburgh has 10 picks this year. That's tied with the Colts, Vikings and Jets for third-most behind the Browns (13) and Packers (12).

  • get related content delivered to your inbox

  • manage my email subscriptions

ADVERTISEMENT

Kansas City - LP: B. Finnegan 4 FINAL
San Francisco - WP: Y. Petit 11
Detroit 8:30 AM
Atlanta
Buffalo 12:00 PM
NY Jets
St. Louis 12:00 PM
Kansas City
Houston 12:00 PM
Tennessee
Minnesota 12:00 PM
Tampa Bay
Seattle 12:00 PM
Carolina
Baltimore 12:00 PM
Cincinnati
Miami 12:00 PM
Jacksonville
Chicago 12:00 PM
New England
Philadelphia 3:05 PM
Arizona
Oakland 3:25 PM
Cleveland
Indianapolis 3:25 PM
Pittsburgh
Green Bay 7:30 PM
New Orleans
Washington 10/27/14 7:30 PM
Dallas
New Orleans 10/30/14 7:25 PM
Carolina
Buffalo 2 FINAL
San Jose 1
Boston 4 FINAL
Toronto 1
NY Rangers 1 FINAL
Montreal 3
New Jersey 3 FINAL(OT)
Ottawa 2
Dallas 5 FINAL
NY Islanders 7
Detroit 2 FINAL
Philadelphia 4
Chicago 2 FINAL
St. Louis 3
Pittsburgh 3 FINAL
Nashville 0
Tampa Bay 2 FINAL
Minnesota 7
Florida 1 FINAL(OT)
Arizona 2
Washington 3 FINAL
Calgary 1
So Florida 17 FINAL
Cincinnati 34
Troy 13 FINAL
South Alabama 27
BYU 30 FINAL
Boise State 55
(6) Oregon 59 FINAL
California 41
North Texas 21 FINAL
Rice 41
UAB 17 FINAL
Arkansas 45
Rutgers 24 FINAL
(16) Nebraska 42
Maryland 7 FINAL
Wisconsin 52
Texas 0 FINAL
(11) Kansas State 23
Minnesota 24 FINAL
Illinois 28
Memphis 48 FINAL
SMU 10
North Carolina 28 FINAL
Virginia 27
San Jose St 31 FINAL
Navy 41
Northern Ill 28 FINAL
Eastern Mich 17
(25) UCLA 40 FINAL
Colorado 37
Akron 21 FINAL
Ball State 35
Massachusetts 35 FINAL
Toledo 42
Ohio U 21 FINAL
Western Mich 42
Ga Southern 69 FINAL
Georgia State 31
Kent State 3 FINAL
Miami-Ohio 10
Oregon State 14 FINAL
Stanford 38
Fla Atlantic 16 FINAL
(23) Marshall 35
Louisiana Tech 31 FINAL
Southern Miss 20
(1) Miss State 45 FINAL
Kentucky 31
Georgia Tech 56 FINAL
Pittsburgh 28
(22) West Virginia 34 FINAL
Oklahoma State 10
Texas Tech 27 FINAL
(10) TCU 82
Michigan 11 FINAL
(8) Michigan State 35
Boston College 23 FINAL
Wake Forest 17
Central Mich 20 FINAL
Buffalo 14
Vanderbilt 14 FINAL
Missouri 24
Old Dominion 51 FINAL
Western Ky 66
UNLV 20 FINAL
Utah State 34
Temple 14 FINAL
UCF 34
(15) Arizona 59 FINAL
Washington St 37
Texas-El Paso 34 FINAL
TX-San Antonio 0
Wyoming 31 FINAL
Colorado State 45
Syracuse 6 FINAL
(21) Clemson 16
Texas State 22 FINAL
ULM 18
(3) Ole Miss 7 FINAL
(24) LSU 10
(4) Alabama 34 FINAL
Tennessee 20
So Carolina 35 FINAL
(5) Auburn 42
(13) Ohio State 31 FINAL
Penn State 24
(20) USC 21 FINAL
(19) Utah 24
(14) Arizona State 24 FINAL
Washington 10
Nevada 26 FINAL
Hawaii 18
(2) Florida State 10/30/14 6:30 PM
Louisville
Troy 10/30/14 6:30 PM
Ga Southern
Cincinnati 10/31/14 7:00 PM
Tulane
Tulsa 10/31/14 7:00 PM
Memphis
Purdue 11/1/14 2:00 AM
(16) Nebraska
(17) Oklahoma 11/1/14 2:00 AM
Iowa State
Oklahoma State 11/1/14 2:00 AM
(11) Kansas State
(10) TCU 11/1/14 2:00 AM
(22) West Virginia
Texas 11/1/14 2:00 AM
Texas Tech
Northwestern 11/1/14 2:00 AM
Iowa
Maryland 11/1/14 2:00 AM
Penn State
Air Force 11/1/14 10:30 AM
Army
ULM 11/1/14 11:00 AM
Texas A&M
Duke 11/1/14 11:00 AM
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin 11/1/14 11:00 AM
Rutgers
Rice 11/1/14 11:00 AM
FIU
(18) East Carolina 11/1/14 11:00 AM
Temple
UCF 11/1/14 11:00 AM
Connecticut
Boston College 11/1/14 11:30 AM
Virginia Tech
North Carolina 11/1/14 11:30 AM
Miami-Florida
Washington 11/1/14 12:00 PM
Colorado
Central Mich 11/1/14 12:00 PM
Eastern Mich
Western Mich 11/1/14 1:30 PM
Miami-Ohio
Western Ky 11/1/14 2:00 PM
Louisiana Tech
NC State 11/1/14 2:00 PM
Syracuse
Texas State 11/1/14 2:00 PM
New Mexico St
Virginia 11/1/14 2:30 PM
Georgia Tech
BYU 11/1/14 2:30 PM
Middle Tennessee
Indiana 11/1/14 2:30 PM
Michigan
Florida 11/1/14 2:30 PM
(9) Georgia
Georgia State 11/1/14 2:30 PM
Appalachian St
Kentucky 11/1/14 3:00 PM
Missouri
Kansas 11/1/14 3:00 PM
(12) Baylor
Houston 11/1/14 3:00 PM
So Florida
(20) USC 11/1/14 3:30 PM
Washington St
Arkansas State 11/1/14 4:00 PM
Idaho
South Alabama 11/1/14 4:00 PM
Louisiana
New Mexico 11/1/14 4:30 PM
UNLV
UAB 11/1/14 6:00 PM
Fla Atlantic
(5) Auburn 11/1/14 6:00 PM
(3) Ole Miss
Arkansas 11/1/14 6:00 PM
(1) Miss State
Old Dominion 11/1/14 6:00 PM
Vanderbilt
Colorado State 11/1/14 6:00 PM
San Jose St
Stanford 11/1/14 6:30 PM
(6) Oregon
Tennessee 11/1/14 6:30 PM
So Carolina
Southern Miss 11/1/14 7:00 PM
Texas-El Paso
(7) Notre Dame 11/1/14 7:00 PM
Navy
Illinois 11/1/14 7:00 PM
(13) Ohio State
(15) Arizona 11/1/14 9:30 PM
(25) UCLA
California 11/1/14 9:30 PM
Oregon State
San Diego St 11/1/14 9:30 PM
Nevada
Wyoming 11/1/14 9:45 PM
Fresno State
(19) Utah 11/1/14 10:00 PM
(14) Arizona State
Utah State 11/1/14 10:00 PM
Hawaii
Los Angeles 0 FINAL
Seattle 2
D.C. 1 FINAL
Montreal 1
Toronto FC 0 FINAL
New England 1
Portland 2 FINAL
FC Dallas 0
Colorado 0 FINAL
Vancouver FC 1
Montreal 23 FINAL
Ottawa 17
Saskatchewan 27 FINAL
Calgary 40
Hamilton 24 FINAL
Toronto 26
Brt Columbia 28 FINAL
Winnipeg 23
Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pmX42-10
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit NoonX17-3
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo NoonX17-16
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay Noon
Nov 2 - vs. Washington Noon
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago Noon
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay Noon
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina Noon
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets Noon
Dec 14 - at Detroit Noon
Dec 21 - at Miami Noon
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago Noon

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

question of the day

Poll: How will the Vikings do Sunday in Tampa Bay?

Weekly Question

ADVERTISEMENT

 
Close