Deep draft could lead to flurry of trades after Luck, Griffin III

  • Article by: MARK CRAIG , Star Tribune
  • Updated: April 25, 2012 - 11:52 PM
hide

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck will go No. 1 in Thursday's draft, followed by Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. Things could get interesting after that.

Photo: Paul Sakuma, Associated Press

CameraStar Tribune photo galleries

Cameraview larger

Months of smokescreens, planted rumors, half-truths and bald-faced lies ends Thursday night when 32 teams finally show the hands they hope will lead them past the pitfalls of the 77th NFL draft and onto the right path toward a Super Bowl victory.

The first two teams -- Indianapolis and Washington -- will take quarterbacks Andrew Luck of Stanford and Robert Griffin III of Baylor, respectively. Luck replaces Peyton Manning, while RG3 has to live up to the Redskins' decision to trade three first-round picks and two second-rounders to move up four spots.

No pressure there.

The fun could start at No. 3, where Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman has done his poker-faced best to paint four equal options: trading down or selecting Southern California left tackle Matt Kalil, Louisiana State cornerback Morris Claiborne or Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon.

This is the sixth draft that Spielman has directed for the Vikings, but his first with final say.

"I'm very excited, not to be in this position [coming off a 3-13 season], but to be in this position at No. 3 because you're going to have to make a decision that's going to kind of set the cornerstone of our future," Spielman said. "So whether we stay at No. 3 or not, that first pick, we're hoping, is going to have a huge impact on our organization."

A flurry of activity could ensue after the third pick as several other teams look to trade down and collect more picks in what's widely considered a deep draft, particularly at receiver, cornerback and defensive tackle -- all positions of need for the Vikings.

The three-day event begins with the first round Thursday night. So sit back and pace your beverage intake while we toss out four draft-related questions to ponder.

1. Which QB will have the better rookie year?

The bar for rookie quarterback play continued to be raised last year when No. 1 overall pick Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards and ran for 14 touchdowns, an NFL record for quarterbacks.

Many experts consider Luck to be the best quarterback prospect since John Elway came out of Stanford in 1983. But it's RG3 who's expected to have the better NFL start because the Redskins have a better team and invested more in free agency.

"The Colts have so many holes, it almost on paper looks like an expansion team," said ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. "It wouldn't surprise me if they're picking No. 1 again next year. Andrew Luck, you just hope he can survive with this personnel around him."

Kiper said the Colts' real pressure this week is using the nine other picks they have to make Luck's supporting cast better.

"If Andrew Luck doesn't look great, it's not his fault," Kiper Jr. said.

Answer: RG3.

2.Who is the No. 1 boom-or-bust player?

This is the first time since 1999 that quarterbacks will be taken 1-2. But neither one of them is considered a boom-or-bust prospect. Right or wrong, they're both widely considered future booms.

But that's not to say there isn't a quarterback competing for the top of that list.

No player has been discussed more in recent weeks than Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill. We'll find out soon enough whether he's truly a hot prospect worthy of trading up for or the subject of considerable pre-draft gamesmanship.

"A boom-or-bust kind of guy is Tannehill," said NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock. "He's a franchise guy, but you've only seen 19 [college] starts."

Others on that list, according to Mayock: offensive tackles Mike Adams (Ohio State) and Jonathan Martin (Stanford), as well as defensive linemen Dontari Poe (Memphis) and Quinton Coples (North Carolina).

"Coples could be an All-Pro," Mayock said. "But he has bust potential written all over him."

Answer: Tannehill.

3. Will Hill fall to No. 35?

Georgia Tech receiver Stephen Hill is an intriguing possibility for the Vikings at No. 35. If he makes it past the bottom of the first round, which is looking less likely.

The 6-4, 215-pounder became the fastest riser in this year's draft when he ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the scouting combine. But he's also raw, having played in an offense that ran the ball 77 percent of the time.

"You're betting a lot on his athletic ability and not a whole lot on college production if you take him high," Mayock said.

Answer: No.

4. Who's the team to watch?

A big deal is made of free agency, but Super Bowl teams are built primarily with consistently shrewd selections throughout the draft and unearthed rookie free agents that eventually shock the league.

No team does this better than the Steelers, which makes it only fitting that they've won a record six of the eight Super Bowls they've played.

In the past 10 drafts, Steelers General Manager Kevin Colbert has ignored free agency while plucking starters from all seven rounds and the pool of undrafted rookies. Twelve of those homegrown players have become Pro Bowl players, which ties the Cowboys and Patriots for the second-highest total in the league over that period. Only the Chargers (16) havehad more.

Colbert has found a franchise QB at No. 11 (Ben Roethlisberger). He has found four Pro Bowl players with mid-to-late first-round picks. He has found LaMarr Woodley in the second round, Chris Hope and receiver Mike Wallace in the third round, Antonio Brown in the sixth round and Brett Keisel in the seventh round. He has also signed Willie Parker and James Harrison, the 2008 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, as undrafted rookies.

"The Packers, Patriots and Steelers, those are the teams that build through the draft, don't overpay in free agency, and ... tend to stay true to certain things that they believe in," said ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay. "And their scouts all know what they're looking for in positions and the players that fit what they're doing."

The Giants and Ravens have had similar success. In the past 10 drafts, they've each had 11 draft picks become Pro Bowl players. The defending champion Giants also have won two of the past five Super Bowls.

Answer: The Steelers. Pittsburgh has 10 picks this year. That's tied with the Colts, Vikings and Jets for third-most behind the Browns (13) and Packers (12).

  • get related content delivered to your inbox

  • manage my email subscriptions

ADVERTISEMENT

Atlanta 6 FINAL
Detroit 4
Philadelphia 3 FINAL
Houston 6
St. Louis 4 FINAL
Miami 1
Baltimore 3 FINAL
Tampa Bay 2
NY Yankees 2 FINAL
Pittsburgh 1
Chicago Cubs 6 FINAL
San Francisco 8
Los Angeles 6 FINAL
Chicago WSox 1
San Diego 4 FINAL
Seattle 9
Cleveland 9 FINAL
Cincinnati 3
Milwaukee 2 FINAL
LA Angels 3
Oakland 2 FINAL
Chicago Cubs 2
Texas 4 FINAL
Kansas City 5
Colorado 3 FINAL
Arizona 4
NY Mets 4 FINAL
Washington 5
Boston 8 FINAL
Minnesota 9
Toronto 0 FINAL
Baltimore 5
Oklahoma City 105 FINAL
Chicago 108
Dallas 75 FINAL
Portland 94
Calgary 4 FINAL(SO)
Boston 3
St. Louis 1 FINAL
Philadelphia 3
Minnesota 2 FINAL
Washington 1
Toronto 2 FINAL
Tampa Bay 4
Dallas 4 FINAL(SO)
Florida 3
NY Islanders 4 FINAL
Nashville 3
Vancouver 2 FINAL(SO)
Arizona 3
Montreal 3 FINAL(SO)
Los Angeles 4
Morgan State 76 FINAL
MD-Eastern Shore 89
Niagara 54 FINAL
Siena 71
Holy Cross 83 FINAL
Bucknell 90
Western Ky 88 FINAL
Charlotte 84
Navy 62 FINAL
Colgate 72
Temple 70 FINAL
East Carolina 56
UAB 59 FINAL
Fla Atlantic 62
Boston Univ 64 FINAL
Lafayette 89
American Univ 68 FINAL
Lehigh 62
Wisconsin 76 FINAL
Minnesota 63
Fairfield 33 FINAL
Saint Peters 63
Arkansas 78 FINAL
South Carolina 74
Morehead State 76 FINAL
UT Martin 65
USC Upstate 63 FINAL
Fla Gulf Coast 62
Lipscomb 57 FINAL
North Florida 71
Southern Ill 55 FINAL
Missouri State 48
Texas State 64 FINAL
Appalachian St 67
SC State 62 FINAL
Bethune-Cookman 72
Delaware State 104 FINAL
Coppin State 92
Middle Tennessee 54 FINAL
FIU 59
Texas-Arlington 64 FINAL
Ga Southern 76
Norfolk State 80 FINAL
Hampton 69
NC A&T 58 FINAL
NC Central 69
Savannah State 57 FINAL
Florida A&M 64
Southern Miss 61 FINAL
Louisiana Tech 72
Marshall 50 FINAL
Old Dominion 67
Rice 76 FINAL
TX-San Antonio 74
South Alabama 81 FINAL
Arkansas State 76
Alabama State 78 FINAL
Grambling St 46
Alabama A&M 54 FINAL
Jackson State 72
Sam Houston St 67 FINAL
Lamar 61
Georgia State 58 FINAL
ULM 50
Central Arkansas 70 FINAL
Nicholls 77
Portland State 51 FINAL
Northern Ariz 58
Southern U 77 FINAL
Prairie View 73
Alcorn State 73 FINAL
Texas Southern 94
Houston Baptist 72 FINAL
TX A&M-CC 85
Ark-Little Rock 69 FINAL
Louisiana 75
SE Louisiana 79 FINAL
New Orleans 85
California 60 FINAL
Arizona 99
Memphis 54 FINAL
Connecticut 53
VA Commonwealth 55 FINAL
Davidson 82
Ark-Pine Bluff 0 Postponed
Miss Valley St 0
Sacramento St 65 FINAL
Southern Utah 69
Northwestern St 66 FINAL
Stephen F Austin 92
North Texas 60 FINAL
Texas-El Paso 83
Colorado 64 FINAL
Washington 47
Idaho 63 FINAL
Weber State 74
Abilene Christian 52 FINAL
Incarnate Word 64
Eastern Wash 85 FINAL
Idaho State 81
Marist 80 FINAL
Quinnipiac 74
Eastern Ill 64 FINAL
Belmont 97
Bradley 52 FINAL
Drake 50
Cal State Fullerton 62 FINAL
UC Irvine 68
CS-Northridge 58 FINAL
Long Beach State 69
UC Riverside 59 FINAL
UC Davis 61
Stanford 62 FINAL
Arizona State 67
Utah 67 FINAL
Washington St 59
Monmouth 68 FINAL
Canisius 56
Wake Forest 85 FINAL
(22) Syracuse 79
Saint Louis 65 FINAL
VA Commonwealth 58
Saint Peters 62 FINAL
Rider 54
UNC-Asheville 51 FINAL
Liberty 59
UNC Greensboro 44 FINAL
(17) Chattanooga 78
Michigan State 69 FINAL
Michigan 49
Arkansas 72 FINAL
Ole Miss 61
Manhattan 51 FINAL
Niagara 57
Massachusetts 63 FINAL
Richmond 67
Virginia 52 FINAL
Miami-Florida 62
Jacksonville St 45 FINAL
Belmont 55
Morgan State 65 FINAL
MD-Eastern Shore 50
Campbell 65 FINAL
Winthrop 52
Furman 65 FINAL
Samford 54
Oregon 64 FINAL
Washington St 66
Indiana 52 FINAL
(23) Rutgers 63
Pepperdine 67 FINAL
Loyola Marymount 68
Auburn 47 FINAL
(18) Texas A&M 57
Morehead St 66 FINAL
Tennessee St 81
George Mason 43 FINAL
Saint Josephs 71
Western Carolina 53 FINAL
East Tenn St 73
Arizona 62 FINAL
UCLA 80
FIU 30 FINAL
Middle Tennessee 79
Texas State 55 FINAL
Appalachian St 61
TX-Arlington 66 FINAL
Georgia Southern 41
SC State 57 FINAL
Bethune-Cookman 56
Delaware State 51 FINAL
Coppin State 80
Portland 58 FINAL
Santa Clara 66
Norfolk State 49 FINAL
Hampton 64
Florida Atlantic 56 FINAL
UAB 59
NC A&T 67 FINAL
NC Central 46
Savannah State 72 FINAL
Florida A&M 51
Virginia Tech 51 FINAL
Pittsburgh 45
Central Arkansas 43 FINAL
Nicholls 53
Houston Baptist 48 FINAL
TX A&M-CC 73
Gardner-Webb 70 FINAL
Radford 56
Georgia 75 FINAL
Missouri 64
Old Dominion 67 FINAL
Marshall 55
Ark-Little Rock 68 FINAL
Louisiana 66
South Alabama 60 FINAL
Arkansas State 70
Georgia State 66 FINAL
ULM 61
Sam Houston St 73 FINAL
Lamar 92
SE Louisiana 75 FINAL
New Orleans 84
Northwestern St 45 FINAL
Stephen F Austin 56
Alabama A&M 58 FINAL
Jackson State 66
Alabama State 68 FINAL
Grambling 62
Southern U 78 FINAL
Prairie View 50
Alcorn State 55 FINAL
Texas Southern 73
Ark-Pine Bluff 0 Postponed
Miss Valley St 0
Wofford 54 FINAL
Mercer 75
Abilene Christian 72 FINAL
Incarnate Word 62
La Salle 60 FINAL
Rhode Island 65
Illinois 71 FINAL
Nebraska 86
TX-San Antonio 60 FINAL
Rice 49
Valparaiso 55 FINAL
Oakland 70
Missouri State 65 FINAL
Indiana State 56
Georgia Tech 64 FINAL
(15) North Carolina 84
Charlotte 72 FINAL
Western Ky 80
Texas-El Paso 69 FINAL
North Texas 61
Wichita State 77 FINAL
Evansville 63
Loyola-Chicago 64 FINAL
Northern Iowa 69
Bradley 70 FINAL
Drake 86
Presbyterian 62 FINAL
High Point 75
Vanderbilt 61 FINAL
(12) Kentucky 67
Colorado 75 FINAL
USC 63
San Francisco 74 FINAL
Pacific 64
Idaho State 58 FINAL
Eastern Washington 62
Weber State 42 FINAL
Idaho 71
Purdue 78 FINAL
Minnesota 82
Cal-Irvine 54 FINAL
Cal State Fullerton 66
Long Beach St 60 FINAL
CS-Northridge 77
Hawaii 60 FINAL
UC Santa Barbara 36
UC Davis 56 FINAL
UC-Riverside 61
Northern Ariz 79 FINAL
Portland State 62
Southern Utah 73 FINAL
Sacramento St 107
Utah 64 FINAL
Washington 75
BYU 65 FINAL
St Marys-CA 64
Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Date/Opponent Time W L Score
2014 preseason     
Aug 8 - vs. Oakland 7 pmX10-6
Aug 16 - vs. Arizona 7:30 pmX30-28
Aug 23 - at Kansas City 7 pmX30-12
Aug 28 - at Tennessee 7 pmX19-3
2014 regular season     
Sep 7 - at St. Louis NoonX34-6
Sep 14 - vs. New England NoonX30-7
Sep 21 - at New Orleans NoonX20-9
Sep 28 - vs. Atlanta 3:25 pmX41-28
Oct 2 - at Green Bay 7:25 pmX42-10
Oct 12 - vs. Detroit NoonX17-3
Oct 19 - at. Buffalo NoonX17-16
Oct 26 - at Tampa Bay NoonX19-13 ot
Nov 2 - vs. Washington NoonX29-26
Nov 9 - Bye
Nov 16 - at Chicago NoonX21-13
Nov. 23 - vs. Green Bay NoonX24-21
Nov. 30 - vs. Carolina NoonX31-13
Dec 7 - vs. NY Jets NoonX30-24 ot
Dec 14 - at Detroit 3:25 pmX16-14
Dec 21 - at Miami NoonX37-35
Dec 28 - vs. Chicago NoonX13-9

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

question of the day

Poll: Who is doing the best job coaching a Minnesota pro sports team?

Weekly Question

ADVERTISEMENT

 
Close