Vikings: Low mileage, high risk

"Sure, luck means a lot in football. Not having a good quarterback is bad luck."

— Hall of Fame coach Don Shula

And so the debate begins. Do the Vikings have a good quarterback hiding in their midst, ready to compete on an NFL level this season? Or, to siphon from Shula's argument, are they pressing their luck by heading to training camp today with nearly unprecedented inexperience at the game's most important position?

If all goes according to plan, Tarvaris Jackson (two career starts) will win the starting job. Brooks Bollinger (nine) will serve as the nominal veteran backup, with either Drew Henson (one), Tyler Thigpen (rookie) or perhaps no one in the No. 3 role.

Never in their 46-year history have the Vikings entered a season with as few as 12 professional starts among their top quarterbacks. The only NFL team this year with less experience is Houston; the Texans plan to start Matt Schaub (two) with Sage Rosenfels (two) as his backup.

Emboldened by his experience with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2000 — when second-year starter Donovan McNabb, backed up by little-used Koy Detmer, led the Eagles to an 11-5 record — coach Brad Childress took a plunge that has left the Vikings near the bottom of many preseason rankings. However, Childress is counting on a skilled defense and enhanced running game to minimize Jackson's growing pains, and his faith in Bollinger caused him to pass on signing a more proven backup.

"Somewhere," Childress said, "you have to take that step. Unless you're George Blanda, you're not going to be playing into your 50s. And so somewhere, you end up making an investment in young guys and playing them. Whether that's Tarvaris or Brooks this year, that's what you do."

A pair of first-year starters led their teams to the playoffs last season, but San Diego's Philip Rivers and Dallas' Tony Romo first logged a combined five years as backups. A year removed from Division I-AA Alabama State, Jackson has no such luxury — putting him in a position that former MVP Rich Gannon compared to driver's education.

"It's like putting a 16-year-old behind the wheel of a car," said Gannon, who worked with Vikings quarterbacks as a consultant this spring. "You've been to the driver's education class and did a good job in the parking lot. But then they throw you out there in the middle of rush hour and see what you do. You might survive, but it's because you don't know what you don't know.

"I think back to my career, the first seven or eight years, and I was out of my brain. That's how long it takes to learn the position."

Betting on Jackson

Jackson made two starts as a rookie. The first, a 9-7 loss at Green Bay, was one of the worst offensive showings (104 yards, three first downs) in Vikings history. On the third play of his second start, Jackson had an interception returned for a touchdown in a 41-21 loss.

While outside observers watched a struggling young quarterback, Childress saw enough raw potential to name Jackson a likely starter in 2007.

"The skills and ability are there," Childress said of Jackson's strong arm, mobility and intelligence. "But the biggest thing with any quarterback is the decision-making thing. That's what we'll be looking for."

As players report to Minnesota State Mankato, the Vikings are confident Jackson at least has the capacity to make good decisions. In fact, Jackson has picked up the West Coast offense at an "unbelievable" rate, quarterbacks coach Kevin Rogers said.

"Sometimes we have calls that are 15 or 16 words long in the huddle," Rogers said. "When he got here last year, during his rookie minicamp, he was able to spit them out almost immediately. He put it all together pretty quickly. Now, you just give him a play and he can give you a formation for every occasion. That was probably the most pleasant surprise I had with him: how bright he is."

Knowing the play, of course, is only part of understanding the position. Jackson experienced predictably mixed results during full 11-on-11 spring drills, when varying defensive schemes, coverage swaps and protection subtleties entered the equation.

At times, Jackson threw confidently to the open receiver. He fumbled several snaps, a sign he was distracted by the mental exercise. In other drills, Jackson seemed overwhelmed.

"It can be a little much at times," Jackson said. "But with me being in my second year, I know I'm going to make mistakes. I want to learn from them and let my teammates help me. I have a lot of experienced guys around me. My coaches have a lot of experience. I'm going to look to them for help and remember that I'm not the only guy on the field."

Gannon departed Winter Park with a generally positive review of Jackson's potential, while also noting it takes years for most quarterbacks to master the nuances of the position.

"There's a lot of volume and verbiage in this offense," Gannon said. "Guys that have been in it for 10 years, they know, 'If I get this defense, I'm going to do that.' And so on. It's the difference between a 100-level philosophy course and a 400-level philosophy course. That's the difference he's facing. My guess is that Tarvaris is closer to the entry level than the 400 level."

Even so, Childress said, it is possible for a quarterback to succeed without a mastery of the position. He recalled a conversation with retired NFL coach Dick Vermeil, who said he felt unprepared for his first two head coaching jobs — in Philadelphia, where he went to Super Bowl XV, and St. Louis, where he won Super Bowl XXXIV.

"What Dick told me," Childress said, "is that you get in there and you flail and you swing away and you do your best. You don't know what you don't know. I think that's an interesting way to look at this."

No need to hedge

Playing a second-year quarterback is far from unusual in the NFL, where half of this season's likely starters were in place by their second year. The most prominent example in Vikings lore came in 2000, when Daunte Culpepper opened the 2000 season as the starter.

Culpepper's backup that season was Bubby Brister, who started 75 games during 13 previous seasons. Teams who start young quarterbacks often take a similar tack, pairing a veteran backup to provide short-term insurance on the field and an experienced mentor for the starter.

Bollinger qualifies for that role mostly by default. He is the team's most tenured quarterback, but only on the strength of an undistinguished five-year career with the Jets and Vikings.

He started nine games for a 4-12 Jets team in 2005, displaying an average arm but the strong instincts of a coach's son. He is well-suited for the Vikings' short-range passing game, but fair or otherwise, he is considered a journeyman by NFL standards.

"It's a good thing," Bollinger said, "that I don't read the paper or listen to the radio or even worry about what people think of me as a quarterback. Because there's not really much that's positive that's being said in my favor. But I'm fine with that. I've learned this is a long process. A lot happens during the season. My focus is to help this offense take a step forward, in whatever form that comes in."

Childress has acknowledged the possibility of adding a veteran this summer, but availability will be limited. The Vikings passed this spring when potential starters, including Jeff Garcia, were available, and Bollinger will be next up if Jackson falters.

Why not hedge the bet on Jackson by signing a Garcia-like backup? Because, Childress said, the amount of practice repetitions necessary to incorporate the new veteran would stunt Jackson's growth.

"There are limited opportunities to get guys prepared," Childress said. "You have a 20-play period and you have 12 plays scripted for your [starters]. You do the math on how many turns the starters are going to get and then the [backups]."

The Vikings consider Bollinger wise beyond his experience — a player who could provide strong mentorship. The son of a college football coach, Bollinger is a "football gym rat," Rogers said, and received his NFL indoctrination from two smart quarterbacks: the Jets' Chad Pennington and Vinny Testaverde.

"Having a mentor helps the starter keep things in perspective," Bollinger said. "There are a lot of ups and downs, especially for a quarterback. Everybody thinks they're going to be different. But being a starting quarterback is a difficult job in this league, for Peyton Manning and everyone else. You need a guy that says, 'Hey, listen. It's all right.' "

What about 2007?

After starting six games as a rookie in 1999, McNabb took over Philadelphia's full-time job in 2000. Detmer, his backup, had started six games in three previous seasons. But McNabb executed a short passing game, ran for a team-high 624 yards himself and led Philadelphia to the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.

Childress stopped short of predicting such a resounding outcome this season, but it is clear he considers it a reasonable scenario.

"We ran the ball more back then," he said. "We had a proficient running game. There's different ways that you offset [inexperience at quarterback]. I don't think any of the quarterbacks in this system here will be tremendously successful this year if they're forced to throw the ball 50 times a game."

Childress envisions a powerful running game built around Chester Taylor and rookie Adrian Peterson, playing behind an improved offensive line.

"Tarvaris has all the tools," guard Steve Hutchinson said. "It's just a matter of him seeing all the situations. As an offensive lineman, you look at a quarterback who has all the talent in the world, but doesn't have the experience to go with it. That means ... you ensure the running game. If you're running 4 or 4½ yards a carry, this kid isn't having to throw on third-and-10 all the time."

Early indications suggested some veterans were discouraged by the potential growing pains of a young quarterback. But one likely suspect, cornerback Antoine Winfield, said: "I have a lot of confidence in Tarvaris," while new receiver Bobby Wade said a player with Jackson's potential is a fair alternative.

"You either want to have the most veteran quarterback who is savvy and has been playing for a while," Wade said, "or a young quarterback like Tarvaris that you can grow with. It'll be nice to be able to have a guy you can grow up with."

Will the Vikings experience Don Shula's version of bad luck this season? Or, will they find the poet Maya Angelou's account to ring true?

"If one is lucky," Angelou once said, "a solitary fantasy can totally transform one million realities."

Kevin Seifert • kseifert@startribune.com