Lions: A Very Brady Christmas

The Bears clinched home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and the Packers head into the final week of the season with something to play for.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are mathematically kaput in a conference where the 7-8 Giants currently hold the sixth seed. But, hey, at least when it comes to the NFC North, the Vikings are better off than the lowly Lions. Right?

Well ... not exactly.

Thanks to Tampa Bay's 22-7 victory over Cleveland, the top pick in next year's draft is down to either the Lions or Raiders, with Detroit holding the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker entering the final week of the season.

Did someone say, "Brady Quinn to Roy Williams, TOUCHDOWN!?"

It's funny, too. If the Lions win the Brady Quinn Sweepstakes and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is able to use the Notre Dame quarterback to thrash Mike Tomlin's pass defense for years to come, the Lions will owe a huge debt of gratitude to receiver Mike Williams, their failed 10th overall pick in 2005.

After all, it was Williams' drop in the end zone with no time on the clock that secured the Lions' 26-21 loss to the Bears at Ford Field on Sunday. And what a clutch drop it was. Oakland already had nailed down its 13th loss the night before against Kansas City.

So, yes, it's true. The Vikings officially can't catch a break. Not even when it comes to dropped passes by someone else's bust of a draft pick.

When Vikings receiver Troy Williamson, the seventh overall pick in 2005, added to the Land of 10,000 Drops last Thursday at Green Bay, all it did was help eliminate the Vikings and give the team an extra week to spin ... er, explain how we're all better off without Mike Tice and his "culture."

Detroit and Oakland both are 2-13. The Lions travel to Dallas on Sunday, and the Raiders visit the Jets. The teams with the next-worst records -- Cleveland and Tampa Bay -- are out of the Brady Quinn Sweepstakes with four victories apiece.

If the Lions and Raiders finish the season tied, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule. Since the draft rewards the worst teams first, the top pick would go to the team with the weakest strength of schedule.

Heading into Monday's games, the Lions had the weaker strength of schedule. It was a three-game advantage that could shrink no lower than two games heading into the final week.

But don't count the Raiders in just yet. If anyone can undertake the Lions, it's the Raiders.

Of course, Lions fans might not have to worry. The Raiders needed a quarterback this year when they let Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler slip past the seventh pick in favor of Texas safety Michael Huff.

Raiders boss Al Davis hasn't taken a quarterback in the first round since Todd Marinovich in 1991. Before that, it was Marc Wilson in 1980. Ken Stabler in the second round in 1968 was the last time Davis drafted a quarterback worth a darn.

Other players considered potential No. 1 picks overall next spring are Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas and underclassmen Calvin Johnson, a receiver from Georgia Tech; Brian Brohm, a quarterback from Louisville; and Adrian Peterson, a running back from Oklahoma.

The Lions, of course, haven't had a top-shelf quarterback since Bobby Layne in the late 1950s. Their last two quarterbacks selected in the first round were Joey Harrington, third overall in 2002, and Andre Ware, seventh overall in 1990.

The last time the Vikings were in the same division as the No. 1 overall draft pick was 1987, when Tampa Bay -- then in the NFC Central -- selected quarterback Vinny Testaverde. The last time the Lions had the No. 1 overall pick was 1980, when they selected running back Billy Sims.

The Lions' "good" fortune for next year's draft hadn't hit them immediately following Sunday's loss to the Bears. The 6-5 Williams was still upset that 5-11 defensive back Devin Hester, whose primary job is running back kicks and punts for touchdowns, got just enough of his hand on the ball for the would-be 22-yard touchdown pass to fall incomplete.

"It's a drop," Williams told reporters. "It's going to burn for a while. I don't know when I'll get over it. Maybe the next time we play Chicago."

Or perhaps next April, when Quinn replaces Jon Kitna, who has 21 interceptions, 30 total turnovers, a seven-game losing streak and a 35th birthday coming up in September.

Only one more week to go. So remember, Motown: It's Just lose, baby.

Mark Craig • mcraig@startribune.com