vikings/nfl

The simple explanation has riled critics and amateur analysts, all of whom wanted deeper answers. Whenever he has been asked about his team's struggles this season, Vikings coach Brad Childress consistently has pointed to two factors: turnovers and penalties.

What about playcalling? How about personnel deficiencies? Those issues aside, the Vikings have demonstrated this season that turnovers -- and the accompanying takeaways -- are indeed the single-biggest factor in their performance.

In their first 11 games under Childress, the Vikings have averaged one turnover per game in their five victories and nearly three in their six losses. They haven't lost when they finished with a positive turnover ratio and haven't won when they fell into a negative ratio; overall, they have a plus-8 mark in their victories and a minus-9 ratio in their defeats.

Penalty totals have been more difficult to document, as the Vikings have averaged 7.2 penalties in their victories and 7.5 penalties in their losses. But the turnover trend was never more evident Sunday, when the Vikings rode a 5-1 advantage in the takeaway/giveaway ratio to a 31-26 defeat of Arizona.

"Turnovers affect wins and losses and that's all I've ever coached," Childress said. "Since I've coached quarterbacks, [it's been about] taking care of the football. When you're the offensive coordinator, that's all you talk about, respect for the football. Value it, fight for it. Now that you're doing both, obviously takeaways end up being a part [of what you preach].

"Turnover margins end up being huge. It just swings the momentum, whether you score or you don't score, it changes all the field position. If you take care of it, you've got a chance to win."

Conservatively, the Vikings can link two of their losses directly to turnovers. They were leading Chicago 16-12 with three minutes, 25 seconds to play Sept. 24 when quarterback Brad Johnson and running back Chester Taylor fumbled a handoff at the Vikings' 37-yard line. Five plays later, Bears quarterback Rex Grossman threw a game-winning 24-yard touchdown pass to receiver Rashied Davis.

Similarly, the Vikings held a 13-10 lead midway through the fourth quarter Nov. 19 at Miami. But Taylor fumbled at the Dolphins' 30, negating at least a field goal opportunity, and the Dolphins returned two more turnovers directly for touchdowns in their 24-20 victory.

"You're not going to win many games like that," tight end Jermaine Wiggins said. "It's tough to do when you're turning the ball over. You've got to take control of the ball. You've got to secure it. When you touch it, you've got to hold on to it. We realize that when we don't turn the ball over, we can do good things."

Even the Vikings' lone turnover against Arizona had a disproportionate impact among the 76 plays the Vikings ran; Taylor's goal-line fumble represented a 10- to 14-point swing. Instead of expanding their 18-point lead, the Vikings watched the Cardinals close the gap to 31-19 and put themselves in position to compete for the remainder of the game.

"It made a big difference," cornerback Antoine Winfield said. "At one point, we're up 31-13 and they pick up the fumble and score. It kind of changed the game. They gained some momentum, made it close at the end. Luckily, we were able to win the game."

The ratio is especially important for the Vikings, who seem wired for close games. Eight of their games have been decided by six points or less, and one mistake can make the difference between winning and losing.

"We make it interesting," Winfield said. "Our margin of victory has been [slim]. We were able to pull it out yesterday.

"[But] it's just one game. Each week, we're still trying to get better. We made some mistakes, and we'll go in and watch the film to correct those things. We're just trying to do a little better each week."

Kevin Seifert • kseifert@startribune.com