twins/mlb

We began the week debating the Twins farm system. We might as well end the week doing the same thing.

ESPN has taken a look at farm systems across the league and has ranked them based on the WAR of every player teams have selected over the last ten drafts. The results aren't cut and dry. There are teams that have drafted rather well but haven't won recently. But if you look at the bottom of the list, it's full of scuffling teams - like the Mariners, Mets, Astros and White Sox.

(We must acknowledge that the White Sox did win a title in 2005, but Chicago has since drafted poorly and traded away some of the decent prospects they've had).

The Yankees are in the bottom third of the list, but they can make up for farm system failures with $$$$$$$.

And the rise of the Rays makes sense when you see them near the top of the list.

The Twins are ranked 14th, kind of odd for a team that has won six division titles since 2002. But keep in mind that the rankings are over the last 10 drafts. That's 2002-11.  Joe Mauer was drafted in 2001 and Justin Morneau was drafted in 1999. Actually, I wonder if ESPN should have focused on 2000-2009, because how many draftees from 2010-11 have reached the bigs?

Oh, here's the answer: Four - pitchers Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale, Addison Reed and Chance Ruffin. All were drafted in 2010.

Now let's look at how the Twins have drafted during that time.

The Twins selected Denard Span in the first round in 2002. Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek were selected in later rounds that year. Since then:

2003: Matt Moses -  48 games at Class AAA Rochester was as high as he got.

Other pick: Scott Baker (second round)

2004: Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop, This was the draft the Twins needed to cash in on. While Perkins has found his niche, Plouffe and Waldrop are trying to establish themselves. Twins drafted Jay Rainville and Matt Fox in the supplemental round, but both suffered injuries. Rainville had nerve damage in his shoulder and had to quit. Fox had shoulder problems in 2005 and was never the same. At the time, the Twins were praised throughout the league for this draft. Look what happened.

Other picks: Anthony Swarzak (second). Matt Tolbert (16th). Rene Tosoni (34th)

2005: Matt Garza. Has developed into a solid pitcher and is missed by Twins fans. The Twins had a sandwich pick that year and used it on prep power hitting prospect Henry Sanchez. Ugh. What's worse is that Clay Buchholz and Jed Lowrie went a few picks later. Ugh.;

Other picks: Kevin Slowey (second). Brian Duensing (third), Steven Tolleson (fifth). Alex Burnett (12th). Rene Tosoni (36th).

2006: Chris Parmelee. The first baseman showed promise during a September call up.

Other picks: Joe Benson (second). Brian Dinkelman (eighth). Jeff Manship (14th). Danny Valencia (19th). Anthony Slama (39th).

2007: Ben Revere. No pop, Little arm. But look at what he CAN do. He has blazing speed and projects to be a good contact hitter. Once he learns how to bunt for hits and learns the pitchers, he'll take off.

2008: Aaron Hicks. Still has upside, but the switch-hitting outfielder needs to start putting it all together. The Twins had a second first round pick in this draft and selected - - - - - righthander Shooter Hunt. Ugh.

2009: Kyle Gibson, Matt Bashore: Both pitchers have had Tommy John surgeries. For Bashore, it was his SECOND. Ugh.

2010: Alex Wimmers: Looks to have recovered from extreme wildness early last season. The righthander should start the season at Fort Myers..

2011: Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Hudson Boyd. Michael, a shortstop, was so banged up after the college season he was shut down for the rest of the summer and limited during fall instructional league. He let ankle, groin and hip injuries heal up and spent the offseason working out in Tampa at a facility owned by his agency, CAA. Harrison's YouTube workouts and batting practices are very impressive. Twins hope he can stick at third base. Boyd, a righthander, was throwing in the low 90's out of high school but showed up to instructional league a little heavy and was given a workout plan. It will be a while before we can determine if this draft sailed or failed.

Things that strike me:

1. Where are the bats? The jury is still out from 2006 on but, man, that's quite a gap between Span and Valencia when it comes to drafting and developing position players. And I don't know how to categorize Plouffe, who's being moved to the outfield and will report to camp out of options but not a lock to start.

2. The 2004 and 2005 drafts have really set this franchise back. Those drafts should have added to the core of this team. Instead, there have been injuries, underachievement and trades of Garza and Slowey.

3. They have to cross their fingers.  Can Gibson become the Twins' ace that some feel he can be? Can Bashore get his career going after two Tommy John surgeries. Is Wimmers ready to fly through the system like some thought he would?.

4. The 2009 draft: In addition to Gibson and Bashore, reliever Ben Tootle (third round) was throwing in the upper 90's but has been slowed by shoulder surgery. Sixth-round pick Chris Hermann, an outfielder drafted as a catcher,  is starting to come on. Shortstop Brian Dozier (eighth) could debut this year. Left-handed reliever Dakota Watts (16th) throws 95-97 mph. This could turn out to be a productive class for the Twins.

I think the state of the Twins farm system will be constant topic of conversation as we close in on the June draft, where the Twins have the second overall pick. This is meant to give you an idea of where the Twins stand before they begin focusing in on top prospects to draft. The Twins have had their swings and misses in the draft (all teams do) and I don't think their system is barren (see White Sox and Astros). But it's definitely a system that could use some top-end talent. And top-end talent should be coming in June.

Yesterday, I pointed out that MLB.com's ranking of the top 100 prospects for 2012 included just two Twins players in Miguel Sano and Aaron Hicks. It touched off a decent discussion in the comment section.

I want to react to one response I read a few times.

Several of you argued, with 30 teams in the league, each club should have three (or 3.3333333333) prospects on the list, so being off by one (or 1.333333333) is not bad.

I disagree.

Ever since I've got on this beat, the Twins have talked about scouting and development as a top priority. Even with the revenues Target Field provides, they want to maintain the small market mentality when it comes to procurement and development. And I agree with that. The Twins' bar should be set a little higher than average - and you can argue that they have fallen a little short.

To me, the indictment is on them when, in a span of a few months, they no longer have Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel but only had Ben Revere ready to plug into the outfield. Getting Josh Willingham was a solid move, but they don't have a prototypical corner outfielder for the other side of the field. Rene Tosoni and Joe Benson probably are next in line but aren't quite ready. They haven't had stability at shortstop for years, and it doesn't help that Trevor Plouffe is focusing on the outfield now. They appeared to have starting depth a year ago, but we all know what happened with Kevin Slowey and Kyle Gibson's injury was a big blow.

[EDITED: SORRY ABOUT THE TYPOS]

Prospect wise, they've been in a down cycle in the upper levels. They haven't had a starter break into the rotation. Glen Perkins' development has bailed out the bullpen, but they still wait for Carlos Gutierrez to perfect other pitches. Middle infield...ugh.  Danny Valencia has broken in at third, and we're waiting to see if he takes off.

Interesting note about Valencia. MLB third baseman had a .252/.316./.390 slash line last year with 15 homers and 75 RBI. Valencia's: ..246/.294/.383 with 15 homers and 72 RBI. It's hard to find production at that position, and Valencia is not far away from being above average.

[UPDATE: I agree that Valencia needs to improve defensively as well. But you can see that just with a litte improvement on both sides of the ball he will compare favorably to other third basemen.]

I do believe that Benson, Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier will lead the next wave of prospects to the majors, so the future looks brighter. Gibson's return from surgery is critical. Gibson, and or Liam Hendriks could break into the rotation next season, when Carl Pavano is a free agent and Scott Baker has a $9.25M option to pick up.

As for the top 100, I felt Oswaldo Arcia and Eddie Rosario could have been on the list, and Gibson would have been on it if healthy. That's five prospects. And an argument for us to look at things differently.

I'm hearing that ESPN's Keith Law is putting the finishing touches on his list, so it should be out soon. I think he's pro-Arcia, so there's a chance the outfielder will be on the list.

OTHER NOTES

The Twins have a good idea where most of their prospects will start the season at. It looks like Aaron Hicks will start at Class AA New Britain (sending him to the Arizona Fall League after last season should help the transition). Sano and Rosario will get their first taste of cold weather at Beloit.

They are still kicking around thoughts on some other players. There's been talk of giving Arcia a shot at New Britain, but he was just O.K, at Fort Myers after recovering from elbow surgery so he'll probably return to Fort Myers.

As of now, first round pick Levi Michael, who apparently is totally healthy after working out in Florida throughout the offseason, will start at Beloit. Ankle, groin and hip injuries suffered during his last year at North Carolina keep him from making his pro debut and limited him during instructional league.

Righthander Madison Boer and Matt Summers and lefthander Corey Williams have a shot at starting at Fort Myers. The Twins want them to start, so space will key. If any of them end up at Beloit, that would make an in-season road trip there more interesting because the Sano and Rosario show will be going on.

Beloit could have an infield of Rosario at second, Michael at short and Sano at third.  Start saving gas money.

The first of several prospect rankings have been released. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, who does an excellent job or covering prospects and the draft, has released his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball for 2012.

The Twins were represented by third baseman Miguel Sano, at No. 23 overall, and outfielder Aaron Hicks, at 72. And that's it.

So is that an indictment on the the Twins farm system? Class AAA Rochester is coming off of back-to-back 90-loss seasons, and we all saw what happened last year when the Twins started making calls to the Red Wings for players. If you ask Twins officials, they will argue that their farm system is closer to the middle of the pack, with most of their best prospects at the lower levels. There are a few players to watch who were at Class AA New Britain last year, but I'm not sure they would be considered upper-echelon prospects.

Two players you could make a case for the top 100 are outfielder Oswaldo Arcia, who was slowed by elbow surgery last season, and second baseman Eddie Rosario, Sano's buddy who is making the move from the outfield. I really think Rosario is an intriguing prospect and could zip up the charts in 2012. A healthy Kyle Gibson probably is on the list too.

Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law should have their top 100 lists out over the next few weeks. It will be interesting to see how the Twins stack up there.

I swapped e-mails with Mayo this morning, and he's releasing his Top 20 Twins prospects list sometime next week.

Since we're talking prospects, here is my Top 10 Twins prospects list, as of today. I have dropped Hicks to sixth. There's still tons of upside there, but he could use a big season.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B. 2. Eddie Rosario, 2B. 3. Oswaldo Arcia, OF.  4. Joe Benson, OF. 5. Liam Hendriks, RHP. 6. Aaron Hicks, OF. 7. Adrian Salcedo, RHP. 8. Madison Boer, RHP. 9. Brian Dozier, SS. 10. Chris Parmelee, 1B. 
 

The Twins have officially announced that they have agreed to terms with reliever Joel Zumaya on a one-year contract. We reported earlier in the week that the deal is worth $800,000 with the chance to earn another $900,000 in incentives.

Zumaya had to pass a physical exam before the club made the deal official.

The Twins, in desperate need of bullpen firepower, are rolling the dice that Zumaya, who routinely hit 100 miles an hour with his fastball but has dealt with injuries up and down his talented right arm, can stay healthy and provide the Twins with an advantage late in games.

Zumaya is scheduled to speak to the media via conference call at 10:30 am Thursday.

The Twins and reliever Glen Perkins have agreed on a $1.55 million contract for 2012, avoiding arbitration. A source with knowledge of contract talks confirmed the deal.

Perkins, who made $700,000 last season, became a valuable bullpen asset in 2011, going 4-4 with a  2.48 ERA, striking out 65 batters in 61.2 innings. Once he was able to focus on a bullpen role, Perkins became overpowering. His fastball averaged 94 miles an hour and his slider 83.6, both career highs.

He will be relied on to be a key part of the bridge to the ninth inning and closer Matt Capps.

Update: Francisco Liriano has agreed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract to avoid arbitration, a source with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed. Liriano, who will be a free agent after the 2012 season, will be looking for a big year after going 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA last season,

Today is the deadline for teams and players to exchange salary arbitration figures. Last week, 142 players filed for arbitration, so you'll see many last minute signings take place today. Alexi Casilla also is eligible for arbitration.

Update: The Twins failed to reach agreement with infielder Alexi Casilla, who made $865,000 last season. Casilla has filed for $1.75 million next season while the Twins have filed for 1.065 million. The sides will have an arbitration date scheduled, but can still work on a deal to stay out of court.

And it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins go back to Perkins about a multi-year deal down the road.

Happy New Year everyone!

I'm in the office today, getting organized with a few things and figured I drop a note here.

From talks with Twins officials over the last week or so, it doesn't look like they will sign any more free agents this offseason. The Twins' projected payroll is around $99 million for 2012. They have 24 non-roster invites. They are out of money and out of spots.

A trade is always possible if the right deal came along. But, again, the Twins can't take on payroll unless they move payroll. And that seems unlikely. So those e-mails I've been getting about Matt Garza? Looks doubtful. Besides, the Cubs want a lot for Garza and the Twins might lack the prospect firepower Chicago wants, especially in pitching prospects.

I learned all this last week while investigating a rumor about the Twins and reliever Dan Wheeler. I was told a move for him wasn't possible, then learned the reasons why. I'm very interested to see where Wheeler and some of the other free agent relievers wind up - and for how much. A few of them have to be nervous that they remained free agents. By the way, how can Wheeler turn down arbitration from the Red Sox after making $3 million last season.

Can't wait for the Twins to announce their non-roster invites for 2012. As of today, here's what we have reported:

Jason Bulger, RHP;  Jared Burton RHP; Samuel Deduno RHP; Phil Dumatrait, LHP; Luis Perdomo, RHP;  Aaron Thompson, LHP; Brendan Wise, RHP; Brian Dinkelman, INF-OF; Matt Carson, OF; Wilkin Ramirez, OF; J.R. Towles, C; Rene Rivera, C; Steve Pearce, INF-OF; Sean Burroughs, 3B; P.J. Walters, RHP. Also expect home-grown prospects like shortstop Brian Dozier and catcher Chris Hermann to get invites as well.