twins/mlb

The easy reaction to the news that the Minnesota Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms.

A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom.

A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere.

Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either.

Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest.

That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm.

The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis.

So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million.

Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL.

I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline.

And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal.

I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified.

But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

~~~

Twins Daily has been killing it lately.

• Twins Daily reacted to the Correia signing.
• Seth asks 12 question of Twins minor leaguer Adam Walker.
• Aaron Hicks is positioned to take a big leap.
• Relive Ben Revere's best Twins moments on video.
• Hey, Twins fans, meet Vanimal!
•  

 When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, they acquired one pitcher who can help the team immediately, Vance Worley, and another who is expected to contribute in the future in Trevor May.

Because Worley is the known commodity who will be a member the starting rotation right away, let’s focus on him first and breakdown May next week.

Affectionately known as “Vanimal” to the Phillie fan base, the 25-year-old Worley wound up being the fifth starter on a team whose rotation featured a stable of prized horses including Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. On an average team, he’s likely a three or four-type starting. In the depleted staff in Minnesota however, until some additional moves are made this offseason, he could very well could be the second-best starter on the team.

On the surface, Worley is very much a pitcher who fits the Twins’ mold: He throws strikes, he works ahead in the count and he pitches to contact. In fact, his 5.5% swinging strike rate last year was the third-lowest rate among all starters with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. That total fits in well with the Nick Blackburns of the world.

Of course, the biggest difference was that Worley was still able to strike people out even if he couldn’t get them to swing-and-miss. His 18% strikeout rate last year would have finished ahead of everyone in the Twins rotation save for Francisco Liriano.

So, if he’s not getting hitters to miss, how did he accumulate so many strikeouts? Jedi mind trick?

In 2012 Worley’s strikeouts were largely a product of hitters failing to pull the trigger. As mentioned before, his swinging strike rate was well-below the major league average therefore he relied on painting corners and hitting his location. This past year, according to Baseball-Reference.com 57% of Worley’s strikeouts were of the looking variety. That mark was the highest among all qualified pitchers and surpassed the baseball average of 24%. In fact, no other qualified pitcher had more than half of their strikeouts looking.

Interestingly enough, a higher amount of his strikeouts came against opposite-handed hitters rather than same-sided ones. Over his career, in the exact same number of plate appearances against both sides (597), Worley out-whiffed lefties (134) over righties (103). These reverse splits are related to the fact that he has caught more hitters looking versus getting them to swing and miss.

Worley’s main weapon of choice against lefties is his sinking two-seam fastball. When he finds himself in a two-strike count, he will dial up this pitch more often than any other (40% of the time with two-strikes). This downward and glove-side run of this pitch combined with his excellent placement has allowed him to aim it at the hitter’s belt and watch it fade back over the plate, like this:

The location and movement of this sinking two-seamer freezes opponents in their tracks. According to his profile at BrooksBaseball.net, with two-strikes, Worley has gotten strike three looking on this pitch 20% of the time he throws it.

Perhaps because of his tendency to ride a pitch on their hands or throw soft stuff away, left-handed hitters had a difficult time pulling Worley. Possibly due to necessity of avoiding Citizens Bank Park’s inviting right field stands, he was able to keep hitters from going that direction often -- instead redirecting them back up the middle or to the opposite field. Unfortunately, Worley’s ability to do the same against right-handed opponents was non-existent as he was decisively average in his directional splits. The idea that a pitcher can control where a hitter hits the ball is debatable however if he is able to repeat this skill, the ability to keep hitters to the big park of the field, specifically at Target Field, so be beneficial**.

**Then again, the Twins just traded away two very solid defensive center fielders and could employ a “Balls-To-The-Walls” defensive alignment in the outfield.

Another interesting component of his game is the way that he has kept the ball in the park despite pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.

In his short career, Worley has allowed just 0.75 home runs per nine innings while the rest of the league has been closer to 1.00 HR/9. What makes this feat even more impressive is that Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, known for its home runs and quick-taze security guards, has been a home run haven. Left-handed hitters, in particularly, have thrived there. According to StatCorner.com, the CBP has a Home Run Park Factor of 126, well above the neutral of 100. For comparison, Target Field vastly decreases the amount of home runs by left-handed opponents, carrying a 76 Home Run Park Factor. In theory, the transition to the home run-suppressing Target Field should help keep his home run rate down while switching to a league with an added offensive player in the lineup.

So all of this seems positive. Yes, there will be some statistical inflation when he switches from a league in which he gets to face a pitcher holding a rolled up newspaper every ninth man up but his methodology and new environment should be able adapt quickly.

The concern, however, is the health of his elbow.

This past August, Worley would be shut down due to “loose bodies” in his throwing elbow and have season-ending surgery. While these procedures are described lightly and often referred to as “clean up” by teams, they can be symptoms of more ominous issues inside the elbow. The aforementioned Blackburn, who once had similar movement on his sinker, required this procedure in order to clean out some “loose particles” in his elbow in October 2010. Since then, Blackburn has been on-and-off the DL, had more surgery and has pitched with almost zero effectiveness. Like Blackburn did, Worley relies on touch and finesse which is provided by a healthy elbow.

Now, that is only a disclaimer. Focus more on the fact that Worley has strong ground ball skills, ability to get strikeouts without needing to getting hitters to miss and is still young enough to be a part of the rotation for several years. In all, I say the Twins landed themselves a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm.

 This morning at 9:00 a.m. the annual Rule 5 draft will begin. First will be the Major League portion. It will be followed by the minor league portion. The Twins have had some successes in each. The nabbed 3B Brian Buscher from the Giants in the minor league portion. In the major league portion, they have added names like Gary Wayne, who was a solid lefty reliever for the Minnesota Twins for a few seasons, including 1991. The most recent success was Scott Diamond.

Today, I want to write about one of the most underrated players in Minnesota Twins history. In my opinion, this player is the best player that the Twins have selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The initial assumption many will make is that I am referring to Johan Santana. However, I don’t believe that he is at all underrated in Twins history. He also was not a player that the Twins selected in the Rule 5 draft. 

Admittedly, it may be semantics, but in that 2000 Rule 5 draft, the Marlins took Santana. The Twins used the 2^nd pick to select RHP Jared Camp. The teams had previously agreed to a deal in which they would make those picks and then swap them, with money being exchanged as well.

In my opinion, the best player that the Twins have drafted themselves in the Rule 5 draft came to the organization on December 4, 1989.

Shane Mack was the first round pick of the San Diego Padres in 1984 after a great career at UCLA. His pro career began in the 1985 season because he played for Team USA in the 1984 Olympics. He debuted with the Padres in May of 1987 and hit .239/.299/.361 (.660) in 105 games (267 plate appearances). In 1988, he played in just 56 games for the Padres and hit .244/.336/.269 (.605) with three doubles. 1989, he played in just 24 games for the Padres AAA team, and hit just .225/.344/.325 (.669) in that time.

Although he had that first round pedigree, and the major college background, Mack was a bust to that point in his career. The Padres exposed him to the Rule 5 draft.

The Twins scouting personnel saw something in Mack that told them that he still had a chance to be a solid big league player. Maybe it was that they just saw a great athlete who needed a change of scenery. Whatever the reason, they selected him in that 1989 Rule 5 draft, and he came to big league camp in 1990. There is little risk in making a Rule 5 selection. It’s just $50,000 to make a pick, and if the player is returned, it is for $25,000. Or, in the case of Diamond, a trade can be worked out. According to Twins Trivia, the Twins have made 17 selections since 1986, and only two of those players remained on the Twins roster the entire season after being taken (Mack in 1989 and Wayne in 1988).

The Twins were a last place team in 1990, so the 26-year-old Mack got plenty of opportunity. In fact, he played in 125 games. He earned the playing time. He hit .326/.392/.460 (.852) with 10 doubles, four triples, eight homers and 44 RBI. He also stole 13 bases.

In 143 games in 1991, Mack hit .310/.363/.529 (.893) with 27 doubles, eight triples, 18 homers and 74 RBI. He added 13 more stolen bases and helped the Twins to their 1991 World Series championship.

He played in 156 games in 1992. He hit .315/.394/.467 (.860) with 31 doubles, six triples, 16 homers and 75 RBI. He stole 26 bases that season.

He had a down season in 1993. In 128 games, he hit .276/.335/.412 (.746) with 30 doubles, four triples, 10 homers and 61 RBI. He stole 15 bases.

His final season with the Twins came in 1995. He played in just 81 games, but he hit .333/.402/.564 (.966) with 21 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs and 61 RBI.

In those five seasons with the Twins, Mack’s OPS+ numbers were 133, 140, 139, 100, and 147. In 633 games, he hit .309/.375/.479 (.854). He hit 119 doubles, 24 triples, 67 home runs, and 315 RBI. He also stole 71 bases. His OPS+ was 130.

He became a free agent following the 1994 season. He spent the 1995 and 1996 seasons in Japan, playing for the Yomiuri Giants. He came back to the States and in 1997 and 1998, he played a total of 129 games for the Red Sox, A’s, and Royals.

When the Twins Hall of Fame ballot came out last month, Mack’s name was on it for the first time. It is inexplicable why a player who did that well for the Twins for a five-year stretch was only put on the ballot this year. Looking at the site results, based on number of tweets, we see Dan Gladden with 47 tweets while Shane Mack has just four tweets. Remember Mack’s 130 OPS+ in his five seasons with the Twins? Gladden’s OPS+ in his first season with the Twins was 90. Other front-runners include Corey Koskie, who deserves it at some point, but he has a 116 OPS+ in seven seasons. Chuck Knoblauch, who absolutely should be in the Twins Hall of Fame, had a 114 OPS+ in his seven seasons with the Twins. Of course, we shouldn’t make much of anything that’s voted by fans. Other deserving Twins Hall of Fame candidates, Dave Goltz (0) and Brian Harper (4) are not racking up twitter mentions either.

That it took so long for Mack to even be recognized on that ballot is one indication of just how underrated Shane Mack is in Twins history. During those five years, he was one of the top five outfielders in all of baseball. Did we appreciate at the time that the Twins had both Mack and Kirby Puckett roaming the outfield?

Shane Mack and Johan Santana are a couple of cases of the best case scenario of what can happen for a team using a Rule 5 draft pick. Scott Diamond’s 2012 season is certainly encouraging. If a team can find a player who performs to the level that LHP Gary Wayne did for the Twins for four seasons, that is a major success.

At Twins Daily today, we will be sure to highlight who the Twins select in the Rule 5 drafts, Major League and Minor League portions. We’ll also look back at any players that the Twins should happen to lose. 

Also at Twins Daily, the Forums have been quite busy throughout the Winter Meetings with a large variety of topics and rumors. Who are the Twins at risk of losing in the Rule 5 draft today? Is Ben Revere on the trade block, and should he be? Did the Twins dodge a bullet when Joe Blanton signed with the Angels and Jeff Francis re-signed with the Rockies last night? 

• If 2013 isn't realistic, the Twins need to focus their attention on 2014, according to Cody Christie. 
• Fire Dan Gladden blogged What if the Twins choose not to sign a pitcher?
• ejoh24 did a great job of explaining why wooing free agents might be very difficult for the Twins. 
• Be sure toread the transcript of last night's Live Chat with Darren Wolfson from KSTP. He spent about 45 minutes answer questions from Twins fans. 

Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported via Twitter on Tuesday that the Twins have "checked in" on right-handed pitcher Shaun Marcum. This isn't really noteworthy, since Terry Ryan has already told reporters that he's been in contact with the agents for every free agent starter, but Marcum's name in particular is an interesting one.

Most of the pitchers that the Twins have been specifically connected to thus far – names like Joe Blanton, Brett Myers and John Lannan – are the usual suspects: bargain bin hurlers with middle-of-the-rotation upside and out-of-the-rotation downside. (Of course, "bargain bin" might be a misnomer in this market, even if it includes names like those.)

But of course, if they want to even feign contention next year, the Twins are going to need to land at least one guy who could conceivably perform at the level of a No. 1 or No. 2 above Scott Diamond. And given the need to fill multiple rotation spots, they're going to have to find a way to do it without coughing up the vast majority of available funds on one player.

So it is easy to see why Ryan might view someone like Marcum as his best bet to land a potential high-end guy, especially with Dan Haren now off the table after signing a one-year, $13 million deal with Washington. Haren was available at a relatively low guaranteed sum due to concerns about the condition of his arm, and the same will likely be true for Marcum. He missed about two months this season due to elbow soreness, which has been a problem for him in the past. (He missed the 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery.)

Marcum pitched very well around that injury, turning in a 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 109-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 124 innings. In the prior two seasons, he had totaled about 200 innings each with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall. Since his surgery, he's been consistently effective on the mound. He strikes people out at a solid rate, throws it in the zone and is quite tough to hit (.241 career OBA).

Based on the numbers Marcum looks like a slam-dunk, but that vague elbow tightness from this past summer is concerning, especially for a club that has seen no shortage of arm injuries and is looking for reliability above all else in its additions to the rotation.

Of course, the elbow issue could also be a blessing in disguise, because it might be just enough to scare away contending teams from matching a high offer. If the Twins are able to sign Marcum and he stays healthy, he's a legitimate centerpiece to the rotation.

Spending fairly big bucks on that gamble is… well, a gamble. But in this environment, what isn't?

One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place.

The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock.

Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after.

• Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years.
• Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3^rd year.
• Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M.
• Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.”
• James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span.
• Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels.
• Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer.
• RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.”
• Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.”
• Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year.
• Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said.

Each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them.

Thus, this is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right.

But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that think that much money is too much, odds are that is too much.

We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place.

Which way are you going to go?

~~~

Each of those rumors and tweets that are linked above? Each was covered in the Twins Talk forum at Twins Daily. There were 425 different threads/posts yesterday about them. Why aren't you already there?

Aaron and John record an emergency podcast to talk about the trade sending Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, what it means for Chris Parmelee, how Span went from prospect bust to underrated big leaguer, why letter grades for prospects can lead to arguments, dropping Deolis Guerra from the 40-man roster, adding Jeff Clement for Triple-A depth, and why Hulkamania will never die. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

~~~

Twins Daily will be the place to be all week during the Winter Meetings as rumors roll in. Over at the Twins Talk forum, not only are there comments on all our stories, but there is also talk about two different Braves pitchers that might have been available, how many runs the Twins will give up by losing Denard Span, and of course more Twins/Red Sox speculation.

If you're looking for another podcast, Seth Stohs joined the Talk to Contact podcast. Seth also conducted his first  "12 Questions" with Twins minor league pitcher David Hurlbut.

And finally, there was a good debate on some new sabrmetric research surrounding "framing" pitches. Unfortunately, it started because Ryan Doumit could be exceptionally bad at it, costing Twins pitchers upwards of 20+ runs per year.