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TwinsCentric was formed by Twins super-bloggers Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, Parker Hageman and John Bonnes. Together they publish at TwinsDaily.com and have authored books, e-books and magazines that provide independent and in-depth coverage of the Minnesota Twins from a fan's perspective. You can contact them at TwinsCentric@gmail.com.
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Posts about The draft
TwinsCentric: Building for the future
Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: November 15, 2012 - 7:25 AM
On Wednesday, the Detroit Tigers signed former Twins outfielder Torii Hunter to a two-year, $26 million contract. On the surface, the Tigers paid a ton for his charisma, leadership and veteran status. Although he had a terrific 2012 season, including the first .300+ batting average season of his career, there is a lot of risk in signing an outfielder who will be 39 years old when the contract ends.
That said, my first thought when I heard the news was that it cemented in my mind the need for the Twins to build for 2014 or even 2015. The comment was met with mixed emotions and plenty of comments on both sides.
Was the signing of Torii Hunter that big for the Tigers? No. The Tigers were head-and-shoulders the favorite in the AL Central even before the acquisition of the former Gold Glover. Adding Hunter got me thinking about the Tigers roster again. I think it is safe to say that Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are really good hitters. Austin Jackson and Hunter will comprise two-thirds of the outfield with Andy Dirks, Brennan Boesch, and young Avisail Garcia. Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, and Danny Worth will round out a very strong lineup. Then there is the starting rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Rick Porcello is a pretty good starting point. Will they bring back Anibal Sanchez? Their bullpen is stacked even when they let closer Jose Valverde leave via free agency. Will they hand a starting job to Drew Smyly or the closer role to Bruce Rondon?
Sure, the wild card could come from the AL Central, but considering the A’s, Angels and Rangers in the AL West, and the five strong teams in the AL East, it seems unlikely. (Yes, about as unlikely as the A’s and O’s being playoff teams in 2012.)
So, what does “build for 2015” mean to me? To some, it could be a fire sale like the Marlins did. It doesn’t have to though. Here are some of the things it means for me:
FREE AGENCY
I completely agree with Terry Ryan that building via free agency is not the best way. That isn’t to say that free agency isn’t important. Of course it is. However, if I’m looking to being a contender in 2015, there is little need to spend a ton of money on older, expensive pitchers like Ryan Dempster.
It can mean using the free agent market to acquire two types of players. First, the Twins can sign decent players who can fill a short-term role. If they do it well, they can be traded at the July deadline for more talent. Terry Ryan had success with this strategy in his previous time as GM. He traded signed Dave Hollins to be his primary 3B in 1996, and in August, he traded him to Seattle for David Ortiz. Roberto Kelly was turned into Joe Mays. JC Romero became Alexi Casilla.
I also think that the Twins can still build for 2015 by making a big splash in free agency this season. (Not that I think they will, just that they could.) They could go after a big name, top of the rotation starter and give him four or five years. The name? Anibal Sanchez. Why? He is looking for a long-term deal, and he is just 28 years old. Most free agents are 31-32 years old. The best of those get three year deals. As he is just 28, maybe a six year deal would be OK. The risk is certainly higher, but it would be a way of telling the fan base that there is a plan, and Anibal Sanchez is going to help us get there. Of course, Twins fans also have to acknowledge that it takes two sides to make a deal. The Twins can go after Sanchez, but Sanchez would have to be willing to sign with a team that has lost 95 or more games each of the past two seasons. How much would the Twins have to overpay to acquire an impact pitcher like Sanchez?
TRADES
Beyond the trades mentioned above which generally will bring back low-level prospects, if the Twins are trying to build for 2015, they will likely need to trade some players. In order to bring back the best return, it is important to trade players at peak value rather than holding on to them for too long.
The Twins have a few guys that they could consider trading this offseason. It’s hard because they are players that Twins fans know, and they would be traded for players that many fans do not know much about. When the Twins traded Chuck Knoblauch, few Twins fans know much about Eric Milton or Cristian Guzman. When All Star catcher AJ Pierzynski to the Giants, Joe Nathan had one good year as a reliever under his belt, Boof Bonser was a decent prospect, and Francisco Liriano was an injury-prone pitcher in Low A ball.
Josh Willingham is coming off of the best season of his career. He could bring back a couple of quality players. Seeing that Torii Hunter got $13 million a year for two years, the market for outfielders is clearly a bit crazy. Willingham’s two years and $14 million (Total) has to look very attractive to teams looking for right-handed power.
The same can be said for Denard Span whose contract, when compared to what teams are likely to shell out for Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Angel Pagan, is very team-friendly.
What has been encouraging is reading rumors about the Twins interest in trading for young pitchers like Trevor Bauer (Diamondbacks), Danny Hultzen (Mariners) and some of the Braves young pitchers like Mike Minor, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran. The pitchers all have high ceilings and only Minor has anywhere near a full year of big league service time. Those are exactly the types of pitchers the Twins should be feverishly attempting to acquire.
PLAYER DEVELOPMENT
This is the most important piece to building a team that can compete for years to come. The Twins did a terrific job of player development from about 1999 through about 2007. It was a system that started with several young players coming up together and then a player or two coming up and contributing each year. It started with the Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, Guzman, Pierzynski group that we enjoyed so much. Johan Santana came to the team in 2000. They were joined by Michael Cuddyer in 2002, Justin Morneau in 2003, and Joe Mauer and Jesse Crain debuted in 2004. Jason Kubel debuted in 2004 as well, but his knee injury meant that he missed 2005. Scott Baker came up in 2005, and Francisco Liriano came up late that season. Matt Garza and Pat Neshek came up in 2006.
The Twins minor league pipeline seemed to have an unending supply of impact players. For whatever reason, that has not been the case in recent years, but there are some players working their way up the Twins system that we can be excited about. Some will be up in 2013, some more in 2014 and guys like Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario could be up in 2015. The entire goal is to develop and find out which players can be counted on for the second half of 2014 and 2015. It isn’t to rush them to the big leagues, but it is to make sure when they come up, they are ready.
The Twins have to find out what they have in Chris Parmelee. They still need to find out what Trevor Plouffe can be. Can Brian Dozier play shortstop, or will he move to second base? Can Pedro Florimon hit at all? Can Chris Herrmann fill the same role for the Twins in the future that Ryan Doumit filled in 2012? Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks and Kyle Gibson all need to get innings in 2013 to see if they factor into the 2014/2015 planning. Could lefty Pedro Hernandez be this year’s Scott Diamond? Getting Adrian Salcedo and Alex Wimmers healthy for 2014 is important. Does Eduardo Escobar have the tool set to be the Twins utility player for the next half-decade? Those can be answered starting in 2013 and into 2014.
In 2014, we should hear about names such as BJ Hermsen, Logan Darnell and maybe Levi Michael. If uber-prospect Miguel Sano were to be exactly on the Joe Mauer path, we would see him in 2014, although 2015 makes more sense for him, Eddie Rosario, and some of those hard-throwing relievers drafted in 2012. Maybe we’ll even see Byron Buxton and J.O. Berrios. In 2016, Max Kepler, Niko Goodrum, Hudson Boyd, Travis Harrison and other names we aren’t even aware of will start appearing. That’s how you build a long-term contender. They have to hit (and get lucky) on their high draft picks, and they have to sign well in the international market as well.
If you’re going to rebuild it, they need to do it right. That doesn’t have to mean completely blow it up. It does mean being smart in free agency and in making trades, keeping an eye on the future as much as the present. It is always remembering that player acquisition through the draft and through international signings ill always be crucial, and then it is necessary for those players to develop their potential.
I’m a Twins fan, first and foremost. They could lose 100 games in 2013 and I will be right back and cheering for them again in 2014. I would like to understand the thought-process and the plan. That said, the front office shouldn’t be expected to say, “We’re trying to compete in 2015.” They should make some moves and hope they get a little bit lucky and give Twins fans some good baseball in 2013. If I’ve learned anything from the last two seasons, it’s much more fun watching a competitive team all regular season than watching a team that is out of contention by Memorial Day. That said, I also have to be realistic after two such poor seasons. I want hope for the future. I’d like to see improvement in 2013. I’d like to see a team that starts to really play well and come together as a young unit in 2014. And I want to see a team that is contending for the AL Central title in 2015, and 2016, and 2017, and, and… you get my point.
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Head on over to Twins Daily where Nick asks whether production or character should matter more? There are plenty of forum comments on the Tigers signing of Torii Hunter, and Parker asks if the Tigers really have much more money available to them than the Twins do. Meanwhile, Jim Crikket thinks the Twins should be bold like the Blue Jays.
TwinsCentric: Independent thinking
Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: August 23, 2012 - 8:21 AM The Twins organization is filled with players from all over the globe. They scout the entire country, Canada and Puerto Rico for the draft. They’ve done a nice job signing international players in recent years. The Twins do a great job in Australia. They have players from Europe and talent from Taiwan. They have players from Central and South America, but also from South Africa.
The last couple of seasons, the Twins have gone in a direction that is likely most rare. In the last two seasons, the Twins have signed four players out of the independent leagues. To this point, none of them have made it to the big leagues, and often, these players are not signed to get to the big leagues. They are signed to fill a role with one of the team’s affiliates. When the Baltimore Orioles signed OF Lew Ford out of the independent ranks, they basically came out and said he would likely not play in the big leagues. But once in a while, there is a success story. Ford played so well in AAA that the O’s called him up which was a great story.
Here is a little bit about each of the four players the Twins signed from the independent leagues:
Andrew Albers – LHP – 26
Albers pitched for four years at the University of Kentucky before being drafted in the 10th round of the 2008 draft by the Padres. He pitched in the rookie leagues for them that summer, but injured his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2009 season, and when he went to spring training with the team in 2010, he was still not 100% He was released, and in 2010 he pitched for Quebec in the CanAm League. He went 3-0 with 17 saves and a 1.40 ERA. In 57.2 innings, he gave up 41 hits, walked 16 and struck out 59.
The next spring, he was trying to work out tryouts with big league clubs, looking for an opportunity for another shot with an affiliation. A couple of those opportunities didn’t pan out. To make a short story long, he called the Twins and said that he would drive from Arizona to Ft. Myers for a tryout. IF they liked him, they could reimburse his travel. If not, he would drive back home, to Saskatchewan, and call it a career. The Twins liked what they saw and signed him. He was my choice for Twins minor league relief pitcher of the year in 2011 when he went 4-1 with a 1.55 ERA in Ft. Myers and then 4-1 with a 2.91 ERA in New Britain.
He has been a starter this season for the New Britain Rock Cats. He is 4-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 17 games (15 starts). He is an aggressive, strike-thrower, walking just 11 in 87.1 innings. He has been on the disabled list twice.
Caleb Thielbar – LHP – 25
Thielbar is from the town of Randolph, Minnesota. He pitched at South Dakota State. In 2009, he went 5-8 with a 5.44 ERA for the Jackrabbits yet was drafted in the 18th round that year by the Milwaukee Brewers. He made it up to Low A Wisconsin of the Midwest League where he pitched in 30 games in 2010. In 2011, he pitched in 43 games for the St. Paul Saints and went 3-3 with a 2.54 ERA. In 49.2 innings, he gave up 41 hits, walked 15 and struckout 62. The Twins signed him in August, and he pitched in three games for the Ft. Myers Miracle. He did well, but the assumption by many was that he was just helping fill out the roster and may not make it to the 2012 season.
Instead, he went to minor league spring training with the Twins and has been one of the fast-risers in the system. The left-hander started the season with the Miracle. He pitched in seven games and 12.1 innings. He gave up four hits, walked two and struckout 16. He was quickly promoted to New Britain where he pitched in 16 games. In 25 innings, he gave up 18 hits, walked just three and struck out 26. He earned a mid-June promotion to AAA Rochester. He has leveled off some, but in 23 games and 34 innings, he has given up 37 hits, walked 13 and struck out 26. Overall, he is 6-2 with a 2.14 ERA.
Chris Colabello – 1B – 28
Colabello had a solid, four-year career at Assumption College, a small Division II school in Worcester, Massechusetts. However, he was not drafted. Since that time, 2005, he has played independent baseball, primarily for Worcester, which is also in the CanAm League. He has hit over .300 in six of those seven seasons. He was a league All-Star in 2008 and again in 2011 when he had a terrific season. The first baseman hit .348/.410/.600 (1.010) with 32 doubles, 20 homers and 79 RBI). He was named the CanAm League player of the year, and also Baseball America named him the Independent League player of the year.
The Twins felt they had a need for a bat and a first baseman at AA New Britain, so they gave Colabello his first opportunity with an affiliated team at the age of 28. To say that he has proven he belongs would be an understatement. He has hit in the middle of the Rock Cats lineup and hit .285/.354/.488 (.842) with 35 doubles, 18 homers and 91 RBI. For a guy who came into the season likely wondering if he would fit in and how he would do. At this point, the assumption is that he should be back and playing in Rochester in 2013. Can he be a right-handed bench bat for the Twins? We will find out.
Dan Sattler – RHP – 28
Sattler pitched in the Big 10, for Purdue, from 2004 through 2007. In that time, he went 12-18 with a 4.39 ERA. He was drafted by the Rangers in the 33th round in 2006 but went back for his senior season. He went undrafted but signed with the Rangers. He pitched in the Texas organization in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, he pitched for independent league Kansas City, but late in the season, he signed with the A’s and pitched in their system through the 2010 season. In 2011, he was with the Angels organization. He signed with the St. Paul Saints early this year, but the Twins signed him after he pitched in just five games. He was 1-0 with three saves.
Blessed with a fastball in the upper 90s, Sattler signed and reported to Ft. Myers. He pitched in three games for the Miracle. On June 19, he was promoted to New Britain where he pitched in five games. On July 6, he was promoted to Rochester where he pitched in seven games. All told, he was 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA. In 29.2 innings, he gave up 18 hits, walked ten and struck out 20. Opponents hit just .173 against him. Unfortunately, he went on the disabled list with elbow problems and needed Tommy John surgery.
Generally, when teams sign players from independent leagues, it is to fill a minor league roster. However, there are always exceptions. I was fortunate to play ball in college with Chris Coste who spent several years with the independent Fargo/Moorhead Redhawks before getting an opportunity in affiliated ball. It took a few years, but you may recall that he became The 33-Year-Old Rookie and won a World Series ring with the Philadelphia Phillies. The beauty is that you just never know. Of these four players, it is possible none of them will see time with the Twins. It’s also possible that any of them could fill a role of some sort with the big league club. We shall see.
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Once you’re done here, head over to Twins Daily.
- Join John, Nick, Parker and Brock of Twins Daily, along with Aaron Gleeman, Lindsay Guentzel and others, at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park for a Twins Daily Meetup tonight (Thursday) at about 7.
- Discuss whether the Twins have a player who could play all nine positions in a game, like Cesar Tovar did in 1968.
- There is also an interesting discussion on if Tom Brunansky will be the Twins next hitting coach.
TwinsCentric: Houston, we have a problem
Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: July 26, 2012 - 5:59 AMSince the start of the 2011 season, the Twins have a record of 103-157. Only the Houston Astros have a worse record in that time (90-170).
As the trade deadline approaches, it is striking how active the Astros have been in making trades while the Twins have been pretty quiet to this point.
Since the beginning of July 2011, the Twins have made the following moves:
Traded Delmon Young to Detroit forRHP Lester Oliveros and LHP Cole Nelson.
Traded Jim Thome to Cleveland for cash.
Traded Kevin Slowey to Colorado for RHP Daniel Turpen
In contrast, here are the trades made by the Astros in that same time:
Traded Hunter Pence to Philadelphiafor 1B Jonathan Singleton, RHP Jarred Cosart, RHP Josh Zeid, and OF Domingo Santana
Traded Jeff Keppinger to SanFrancisco for RHP Henry Sosa and RHP Jason Stoffel
Traded Michael Bourn to Atlanta for OF Jordan Schafer, RHP Juan Abreu, RHP Paul Clemens and LHP Brett Oberholtzen
Traded Justin Ruggiano to Miami for C Jobduan Morales
Traded Carlos Lee to Miami for 3B Matt Dominguez and LHP Rob Rasmussen
Traded Brandon Lyon, JA Happ and David Carpenter to Toronto for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, RHP JoeMusgrove, RHP Asher Wojciechowski, LHP David Rollins, C Carlos Perez, and a Player to be Named Later.
Traded Brett Myers to Chicago (White Sox) for RHP Matt Heidenreich and LHP Blair Walters
Traded Wandy Rodriguez to Pittsburgh for OF Robbie Grossman, LHP Randy Owens, LHP Colton Cain
The Twins have used their high waiver spot to claim the likes of Pedro Florimon, Clete Thomas and Erik Komatsu. The Astros have usedtheir waiver spot to claim players like Fernando Martinez and Mark Hamburger.
The Astros masterfully handled the draft. Instead of taking the “easy” pick, Mark Appel, they took the top high school bat (according to many) in Carlos Correa and signed him for well below the suggested slot for the top pick. That allowed them to sign Lance McCullers, who fell to them in the supplemental first round.
The Astros have pretty much blown up their roster and started from scratch. Of the players who were on the Astros Opening Day roster,Jed Lowrie is the player remaining who has the largest contract, at $1.15 million.
It’s hard to imagine the Twins completely blowing things up,but should they? What is the right thing to do? With needs at many positions at the big league level and throughout the minor league system, would it be best to start over and accumulate as much talent as possible?
Does it need to happen at the July trade deadline? For Francisco Liriano, the answer would seemingly be Yes. However, since Josh Willingham and Denard Span are signed long term, if Terry Ryan doesn’t feel he is getting maximum return, he can keep them and try again this offseason.
So what do you think? Will the Twins or the Astros contend in their division first?
TwinsCentric: Be patient with the high school draft picks
Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: June 21, 2012 - 4:37 AMSince the Twins drafted outfielder Byron Buxton with the second overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft, the question I hear most is, “When do you think we will see Buxton in a Minnesota Twins uniform?” We can all venture our guesses bases on what we’ve read about an 18 year old, but no one knows. He could come up as a 20 year old in 2014, as a 24 year old in 2018, or he may never make it up to the big league club.
Another question I have heard frequently over the last two years is when we will see Aaron Hicks and if he is behind schedule, whatever who whoever’s schedule that is.
Is there a lot of risk drafting high school hitters early in the draft? How have the Twins done when they have drafted high school bats?
My hope in this article is not to necessarily answer those questions because, again, we don’t know what the end story will be for any individual. By the end of this article, hopefully you will be able to see a bit of information to help you project when we might expect to see Buxton, Hicks or other high school draftees.
Methodology
Ben Revere was drafted by the Twins in 2007 out of Lexington Catholic High School in Kentucky. He debuted with the Twins in September of 2010, three-and-a-half years after being drafted. My assumption as I prepared this data was that Revere was on a very fast track. That is where I started the search. I looked at all high school hitters drafted by the Twins in the first 100 picks of their respective drafts. Although anyone drafted or signing with an affiliate technically have a chance to make the big leagues, many believe that the Top 100 picks is where most of the future big leaguers are selected.
Between 1993 and 2007 (15 drafts), the Twins selected 22 high school hitters in the Top 100 picks of the drafts. Fifteen of the twenty-two have reached the big leagues. Obviously there is a wide range of big league success, but that is an impressive 68.1% Six to eight of those 22 players have had a significant level of big league success.
With that, I put together a chart showing when the players was drafted (including overall pick #), when they made their big league debut, when they became a regular big leaguer, how many Major League plate appearances they have accumulated, and finally, what level did a player who didn’t make the big leagues get?
| Player |
Draft Year (Pick) |
MLB Debut |
Regular |
MLB PA's |
No MLB - Hi Level |
| Ben Revere |
2007 (28) |
9/7/2010 |
2011 |
656 |
|
| Danny Rams |
2007 (92) |
Current - FM |
|||
| Chris Parmelee |
2006 (20) |
9/6/2011 |
192 |
||
| Joe Benson |
2006 (64) |
9/6/2011 |
74 |
||
| Henry Sanchez |
2005 (39) |
09 - Beloit |
|||
| Paul Kelly |
2005 (54) |
11 - Ft. Myers |
|||
| Drew Thompson |
2005 (80) |
10 - FM, '11 WS |
|||
| Trevor Plouffe |
2004 (20) |
5/21/2010 |
2012 |
540 |
|
| Matt Moses |
2003 (21) |
09 - Rochester |
|||
| Denard Span |
2002 (20) |
4/6/2008 |
2008 |
2380 |
|
| Joe Mauer |
2001 (1) |
4/5/2004 |
2005 |
4169 |
|
| Jose Morales |
2001 (77) |
9/8/2007 |
2009 |
252 |
|
| BJ Garbe |
1999 (5) |
06 - New Britain |
|||
| Rob Bowen |
1999 (56) |
9/1/2003 |
2006 |
439 |
|
| Justin Morneau |
1999 (89) |
6/10/2003 |
2004 |
4447 |
|
| Michael Cuddyer |
1997 (9) |
9/23/2001 |
2004 |
4812 |
|
| Michael Restovich |
1997 (61) |
9/18/2002 |
297 |
||
| Cleatus Davidson |
1994 (42) |
5/30/1999 |
24 |
||
| AJ Pierzynski |
1994 (71) |
9/9/1998 |
2001 |
5939 |
|
| Torii Hunter |
1993 (20) |
8/22/1997 |
1999 |
7510 |
|
| Kelcey Mucker |
1993 (38) |
99 - New Britain |
|||
| Javier Valentin |
1993 (93) |
9/28/1997 |
1998 |
1663 |
NEVER MADE IT
Along with the 68% of these 22 players making it to be the big leaguers comes the 32% chance that a Top 100 draft choice never sees the major leagues. This could be for many reasons. For example, Paul Kelly and Drew Thompson just could not stay on the field. They were hurt. Both had big league talent. Mucker and Garbe were good athletes that just plateaued. Sanchez had huge power but couldn’t make contact. He also couldn’t stay out of trouble. Moses was talented, but many believed he just didn’t care about baseball all that much. There are many reasons that players don’t get to the big leagues, and this small group of seven illustrates that well. (Note – Danny Rams is still playing with the Ft. Myers Miracle, hitting .136 on the season.)
ON THE FAST TRACK
Three players on this list were on what I would consider the fast track. Joe Mauer was starting on Opening Day in 2004, two-and-a-half years after he was the #1 overall pick in 2001. He signed and played in Elizabethton in 2001. He spent all of 2002 in Quad Cities (Low A). He started 2003 in Ft. Myers and played the second half in New Britain.
Ben Revere was drafted in 2007 and played in the GCL that year. He spent all of 2008 in Beloit, where he hit .379. He spent all of 2009 in Ft. Myers and hit .311. In 2010, he hit. 305 in New Britain before his September call-up. Revere spent three-and-a-half seasons in the minors before his debut. He didn’t spend much time in the minors in 2011 before being a starter for the Twins. He also got a little bit of time in Rochester in 2012.
Justin Morneau was the Twins 3rd round pick in 1999, and he debuted with the Twins almost exactly four years after signing with the Twins, on June 10, 2003. He was regular by the All Star break in 2004, shortly before the Twins traded Doug Mientkiewicz at the deadline. More impressive, he played in the Gulf Coast League in 1999 and 2000. In 2001, he spent time in Quad Cities and Ft. Myers before ending the season with ten games in New Britain. He spent all of 2002 in New Britain which is where he started the 2003 season. He moved up to Rochester, and by July, he was up with the Twins. He spent 72 more games in 2004 in Rochester before being called up for good.
AVERAGE ADVANCEMENT
Of the 15 (in our sample of 22) that made it to the big leagues ten of them debuted between four-and-a-half and five-and-a-half years. The common denominator in this group is that the players went back to the minor leagues after their debut. Rob Bowen and Javier Valentin came up within four-and-a-half years, and it wasn’t long before they were backup catchers in the big leagues. Torii Hunter came up from AA just four-and-a-half years after he was drafted, but he played in just one game (as a pinch runner) before going back to the minors. In fact, he played in just six games for the Twins the following year. And, two years after that, he was infamously returned to the minor leagues when he figured things out. He came up for good after that. Michael Cuddyer came up after four-and-a-half years too, and it took him three years to become a regular.
Cleatus Davidson came up five years after he was drafted. He spent a little time as a utility infielder for the Twins and never played with the big league club again. AJ Pierzynski didn’t hit his first chance for five-and-a-half years, and he spent plenty more time over the next two seasons in the minor leagues before staying up for good. Michael Restovich took five-and-a-half years too, and he only got minimal time with the Twins over the next three seasons. He was a part-time big leaguers for several more years but never became a regular. Denard Span rarely put up numbers during his five-and-a-half years in the minor leagues before his debut. That’s why the Twins wanted to get a centerfielder in the Johan Santana trade. But Span got his chance just days after the start of the 2008 season. He was sent back down, but it wasn’t long before he came up as a regular and he’s outperformed his minor league numbers ever since. Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson were each in the minor leagues for five-and-a-half years before their September call-ups last year. I don’t think that either would be called a big league regular at this time, but both still have the youth and potential to become just that.
EXTREME PATIENCE
Jose Morales was in the minor leagues for six-and-a-half years before he was called up to the Twins in 2007. He had three hits in his big league debut, and was injured on a slide and missed the rest of that season and plenty of time the following year. He showed some glimpses that he could be a decent backup.
Trevor Plouffe did not make his Major League debut for six years after he was drafted in 2004. His is an interesting case. After the draft, he spent the season in Elizabethton. He spent all of 2005 in Beloit where he hit just .223 but was promoted to Ft. Myers for the 2006 season. There, he hit just .246. In 2007, he found himself in New Britain as a 21 year old. He hit .274 with 48 extra base hits, and yet in 2008, he was back with the Rock Cats. He split 2008 before New Britain and Rochester. He spent all of 2009 in Rochester. In 2010, he was back in Rochester, and hit .244. However, in June, the Twins had a need and Plouffe made his big league debut. He put up major power numbers for Rochester in 2011 and played in 81 games for the Twins. We know of his early-season struggles with the Twins in 2012. Based on his hot streak the last month, can we now call him a regular, about eight years after he was drafted?
SUMMARY NOTES
So, when people ask me when I would guess we will see Byron Buxton playing for the Minnesota Twins, I think I’ll guess the average of the above, five years. That would mean he would debut with the Twins around June of 2017, but it will likely be September of either 2016 or 2017.
Is Aaron Hicks behind schedule? He was the #1 pick in June of 2008. Five years would be about June of 2013. He is at AA right now, and he needs to be added to the 40 man roster after this season, so it’s possible he gets called up in September this year. So now, he is not behind schedule. He’s on a pretty normal schedule.
Finally, I so often hear some fans make judgements quickly on a player who comes up for his debut, struggles and is sent down. I never understand that because, in reality, very few come up, make their debut and stay in the big leagues forever. It's normal to have some struggles, get sent back down, work on some things, come back up, and rinse and repeat. Obviously the better a player is able to make adjustments, the more likely he is to eventually become a quality regular.
You can do the same math with 2010 second-round pick Niko Goodrum and 2011 supplemental first round pick Travis Harrison. Yet no one knows. Will Harrison be on the Ben Revere path, or the Michael Cuddyer path, or the Trevor Plouffe path, or the BJ Garbe path? We don’t know. There are no givens in minor league baseball, and that’s part of makes it so fun to follow.
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Things are really busy over at Twins Daily, and that’s great for readers. There is a ton of great content:
- Parker answers part of the question about why Francisco Liriano has been much improved of late.
- Cody Christie wrote about a Wild Night in the Minors on Wednesday.
- In the forums we try to keep up with the 2nd Half Promotions in the minors, the signing of Luke Bard, and much more.
- Finally, Phase II of the Adopt-A-Prospect project will be starting on Thursday morning. Check it out and if you’re interested, “adopt” and brag about a Twins prospect.
Gleeman & the Geek Ep 45: Youth and Youther
Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: June 10, 2012 - 9:44 PMAaron and John talk about the Twins' youth-led turnaround, Byron Buxton and the power arm-filled draft class, Trevor Plouffe's homer binge, Scott Diamond's ace impression, Chris Parmelee's return from Rochester, Ben Revere's long-term upside, Liam Hendriks' impending re-arrival, the wisdom of re-signing Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis in pitcher heaven, Brian Dozier's struggles, and the exciting life on Aaron's balcony. Here are:
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes
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Over at Twins Daily.....
- The draft is over, but that just means you have some new names to learn. Like this year's winner for best name: Will Hurt.
- This weekend's wrapups of the minors inlcude a Sean Burroughs sighting and another outstanding outing from a guy likely to pitch for the Twins later this week.
- Meanwhile some of us are talking about how the Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball. While others are wondering just who, besides the Nationals, REALLY wants Denard Span. (Hint; you'll see them later this month.)
Grading in a void
Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: June 4, 2012 - 11:08 PM
Of the last decade's drafts, I think it’s safe to say that the two first round picks for which the Twins took the most immediate heat were 2001 and 2007. It might be worth noting just how ridiculous that looks right now. In 2001, the Twins took Joe Mauer as the #1 pick and were lambasted for being too damn cheap and possibly blinded by a local kid. In 2007, the fiscal-based criticism was similar when they drafted Ben Revere "above slot" and it was compounded by a perception that the Twins were way too happy with their annoying little Piranhas and devoid of power.
But if you take a look at first round picks the Twins have made, Mauer and Revere currently rank among some of the best, even given Revere’s limited role so far.
The problem with writing about the draft the day after is that you’re writing in a void. After all, we have very little idea what these players will become. And when confronted with a void, the human mind creates a reality. So we start with rankings culled by a few media members and bloggers who are sensitive to what other media member and bloggers perceive. Then we extend realities from the ones we perceive while following the club, especially when they are supported by rankings.
So which realities do you want to embrace?
You could go with the “Twins Love Toolsy Outfielders” paradigm, which explains why the Twins nabbed high school prep star Byron Buxton. If you're disappointed by Aaron Hicks, then that's a bad thing. If you admire Denard Span or Torii Hunter, then that's a good thing. But, of course, neither Span nor Hunter nor Hicks have any impact on the development of Buxton.
Or you could go with the “Twins Are Too Cheap” which explains why they didn’t select Scott Boras client Mark Appel with the #2 pick and leaves you feeling a little bitter. It explains why the next two picks - Puerto Rican high school pitcher Jose Orlando Berrios and college relief pitcher Luke Bard - were chosen slightly above where they had been ranked by Baseball America and other ranking systems. By doing so, the Twins might save money since these players don’t have that high bonus expectations others might have had. Or it could be that the Twins didn't agree with Baseball America's rankings.
There will be others realities someone will want to extend. I'm quite sure someone will absolutely find a “Pitch To Contact” trend, though I think it’s going to take some imagination. More obvious is the “Twins Are Oblivious” since they didn’t come out of the first day with a college starting pitcher. Or a “Twins Are Medical Quacks” since third pick, Bard, is down with non-arm injury.
I’m looking forward to reading them. But the longer I do this, the more I conclude that none of them are legitimate.
Here’s what happened yesterday: the Twins nabbed some black boxes. Or maybe a better analogy would be some junk bond portfolios. Some are very promising, highly graded, with a possible high payout. Some are less so.
Twenty-nine other traders did the same thing. They did so based on experience and insider information that we have little access to. Our perceptions on what drove them or didn’t drive them are probably wrong. More than likely, they looked at these opaque boxes, shook them a bit, and picked the ones they like best.
Now we get to wait to see what’s in them.
~~~
The ins and outs of the draft were broken down 40,000 times yesterday at Twins Daily. And it'll continue today....
- There were 250+ comments on the thread that documented first day of the MLB draft.
- Today's Day 2 thread is here if you want to comment.
- Here are the stories on picking up Byron Buxton and our supplemental picks.
- There was also plenty of discussion about putting Carl Pavano on the DL and replacing him in the rotation with Nick Blackburn.
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