twins/mlb

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink.

 

While many, like me, are holding out hope that the Twins can find a way to compete in a 2012 season where the odds are stacked pretty heavily against them, we must acknowledge that there's a good chance the big-league club won't catch the number of breaks it needs, and that by the mid-season point fans will be looking elsewhere for signs of hope.

Those signs will hopefully come from some of the players listed below in my annual preseason ranking of the organization's top ten prospects. Last year's crop fared about as well as the major-league roster, with nearly every player experiencing injury or performance setbacks, so several members of that list have dropped down or off this year's board.

With that being said, there's a lot of promise to be found below, and the Twins should be stocking their farm system with plenty more high-end talent in June when they select five times in the top 75 picks (including No. 2 overall). Here's a look at the Top 10 Prospects, as I currently see them:

10. Brian Dozier, SS
Age: 24 (DOB: 5/15/87)
2011 Stats (A+/AA): .320/.399/.491, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 92 R

Acquired in the eighth round of the 2009 draft, Dozier established himself as an intriguing prospect while showing strong on-base skills over his first two seasons. Last year, he really put himself on the map with an excellent campaign split between Ft. Myers and New Britain, as he continued to display outstanding plate discipline (66/55 K/BB ratio) while sprinkling in some pop (33 doubles, 12 triples, nine homers).

Ultimately, the biggest questions about Dozier revolve around his defense. Folks in the organization question whether he can stick at short in the bigs. If he can, and if his well rounded offensive skill set holds up, he could prove to be a godsend for a system that is extremely light on middle-infield (and especially shortstop) talent in the upper levels.

9. Alex Wimmers, SP
Age: 23 (DOB: 11/1/88)
2011 Stats (GCL/A+): 41.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 40/23 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP

In his first start of the 2011 season, Wimmers threw nearly as many wild pitches (three) as strikes (four) in a 28-pitch outing that was cut short after he walked the first six batters he faced. The 2010 first-round pick was immediately placed on the disabled list with "flu-like symptoms" as Twins fans drew inevitable comparisons to Shooter Hunt, a promising hurler whose career went off the tracks after he lost the ability to throw strikes.

Fortunately, Wimmers was able to regain his control in the second half, as he returned to the Miracle in July and posted a 3.32 ERA and 39/16 K/BB ratio over 40 2/3 innings the rest of the way. He ended his season with a seven-inning no-hitter that included only two free passes. His walk rate will definitely be worth monitoring going forward, but for now it appears that disaster has been averted, and if he puts together a full season Wimmers has the potential to shoot up this list.

8. Adrian Salcedo, SP
Age: 20 (DOB: 4/24/91)
2011 Stats (A): 135 IP, 2.93 ERA, 92/27 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP

In 355 1/3 innings as a pro, Salcedo has allowed only 12 home runs and 56 walks. Those are extremely impressive numbers, particularly when you consider that he's been on the young side for every level he's played at. His low strikeout rate (6.1 K/9IP) suggests limited upside, but scouts speak highly of his raw stuff and as a 6-foot-4 20-year-old, he's projectable and could ramp up the whiffs as he fills out his lanky 175-pound frame.

7. Oswaldo Arcia, OF
Age: 20 (DOB: 9/9/91)
2011 Stats (A/A+): .291/.335/.531, 13 HR, 51 RBI, 46 R, 3/6 SB

After he put together a monster season in the Appalachian League in 2010, many wondered whether Arcia's breakout performance was for real, given that it was somewhat out of line with his good-not-great previous efforts in rookie ball. The slugging outfielder made a statement right out of the gates last year, raking to the tune of .352/.420/.704 over his first 20 games at Beloit.

Unfortunately, elbow problems that limited him mostly to DH duties over the first month required surgery in early May, shelving him for a good chunk of the season. When he returned, he was promoted to Ft. Myers, where he rounded out the campaign by hitting .263/.300/.463 with eight homers over 227 plate appearances. Those numbers aren't amazing and he struggled a bit with his plate approach, drawing only nine walks during that span, but his power remained intact and the performance was plenty encouraging for a 20-year-old in High-A ball.

6. Liam Hendriks, SP
Age: 22 (DOB: 2/10/89)
2011 Stats (AA/AAA): 139.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 111/21 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP

After a spectacular 2010 season that saw him register a 1.74 ERA between Beloit and Ft. Myers as a 21-year-old, Hendriks kept the mojo going last year when he jumped out to an 8-2 start in New Britain, posting a 2.70 ERA and 81/18 K/BB ratio in 90 innings. The continued excellence earned him a promotion to Rochester, where his impeccable command held up (three walks in 49 1/3 innings) but the rest of his numbers came back to earth.

The Aussie eventually made four starts for the Twins as a September call-up, and looked predictably overmatched. This isn't entirely discouraging, considering his age, and doesn't change the right-hander's outlook as a potentially effective mid-rotation strike-thrower.

5. Joe Benson, OF
Age: 23 (DOB: 3/5/88)
2011 Stats (GCL/AA): .284/.387/.491, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 71 R, 14/24 SB

Taking his second shot at Double-A pitching, Benson showed significant improvement in some key areas last year, raising his batting average by 25 points and his on-base percentage by 44 points. He didn't approach his home run total of 27 from the prior season, but his power showing was respectable.

Benson has some notable flaws in his game, the most alarming of which is a bulky strikeout rate (27 percent over the last two years) that will limit his ability to hit for average in the majors. He's also been successful on less than 60 percent of his steal attempts in the minors, which is odd in light of his exceptional speed. Still, even if Benson doesn't live up to the considerable offensive promise he's shown in New Britain over the past two years, he'll maintain value as a strong defensive outfielder who can work the count and hit for power.

4. Kyle Gibson, SP
Age: 24 (DOB: 10/23/87)
2011 Stats (AAA): 95.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 91/27 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP

Gibson put together one of the best 2010 campaigns of any prospect in baseball, and impressed coaches in big-league camp last year to the extent that certain members of the organization wanted to see him head north out of spring training. Instead, the 23-year-old was assigned to Rochester, where he got off to a solid start before seeing his performance deteriorate until eventually it came to light that he had a torn ligament in his elbow.

He'll miss the entire 2012 season and will return in 2013 as a 25-year-old learning to throw with a surgically repaired arm. Certainly it's a major bump in the road, and many boards are going to have him even lower than I do, but I'm still a big believer in his talent and upside. His timetable may be pushed back by a year (or more), but I think we'll see Gibson become a staple at the front of the Twins' rotation down the line.

3. Eddie Rosario, OF
Age: 20 (DOB: 9/28/91)
2011 Stats (Adv-Rk): .337/.397/.670, 21 HR, 60 RBI, 71 R, 17/23 SB

A year ago, Rosario was a little-known prospect who had put together a solid yet unspectacular debut in the Gulf Coast rookie league after being drafted 135th overall in 2010. That has all changed now. Rosario moved up to Elizabethon last year and absolutely obliterated the pitching there as a 19-year-old, smashing 21 homers to lead all hitters in the Appy League.

Rosario doesn't have the pedigree of his similarly transcendent teammate (who you'll find two spaces below) so it's wise to remain cautious of a drop-off as moves up to full-season leagues, but this incredible performance cannot be ignored. Additionally, the Twins have announced that they'll try moving him from the outfield to second base next year. If that transition takes and his offense continues to shine, he could find himself at the top of this list next year.

2. Aaron Hicks, OF
Age: 22 (DOB: 10/2/89)
2011 Stats (A+): .242/.354/.368, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 79 R, 17/26 SB

In the first two years after he was drafted 14th overall, Hicks was the Twins' consensus No. 1 prospect. At this point, however, I'm taking a leap of faith by keeping him in the second spot. The switch-hitting outfielder has all the tools to develop into a big-league star, but his on-field performance simply hasn't progressed as anyone would hope. His power numbers remain substandard, he strikes out too much, he doesn't hit from the left side of the plate and last year he put up the worst batting average of his career.

I remain bullish on Hicks because his raw tools are just too impressive to give up on, and he's consistently displayed two uncommon skills in spite of his disappointing overall output: exceptional plate patience and stellar defense in center field. He raked in the Arizona Fall League recently (.294/.400/.559) and I'm hoping he can build on that and turn the corner in 2012. If not, his tremendous athletic prowess won't save him from sliding down this list next year.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B
Age: 18 (DOB: 5/11/93)
2011 Stats (Adv-Rk): .292/.352/.637, 20 HR, 59 RBI, 58 R, 5/9 SB

When the Twins signed Sano out of the Dominican Republic with a hefty bonus back in 2009, the 16-year-old drew some lofty offensive comparisons. His performance across three levels of rookie ball has left no reason to doubt the high praise.

Sano's second pro season was more impressive than his first, which had already established him as one of the game's better up-and-coming power hitters. Despite being only 18 years old, he finished third in the Appy League in OPS, second in homers and first in total extra-base hits. His strikeout rate was a bit high and his walk rate a bit low – both understandable given his age and degree of dominance – but otherwise it's tough to find much fault with his production.

He's still got a long way to go before reaching the majors, and much can happen between now and then, but at this point Sano is on a path to become the best pure power hitter to come through Minnesota in decades.

This is the hardest time of the year to be a baseball fan. At least it is for me. I actually really enjoy the offseason. I love hearing rumors, and trying to think about what the Twins could do, and what they will do. Who will they sign? Will there be a trade? From the end of the World Series until about the middle of January, it is fun. Then there is the Twins Winter Caravan which is a great time, followed by the weekend of Twins Fest. In a little over a week, one of the great phrases will be uttered, "Pitchers and Catchers Report!" And, I'm of the belief that Opening Day should be a national holiday! And, then there is the 162 game season. Obviously it's much more fun when your team is winning, but that long journey from April to October is what it's all about. 

However, there are those pesky three weeks between Twins Fest and the beginning of spring training. Generally, there won't be any more transactions. The Super Bowl is done, and all we can do is wait. Once Spring Training starts, there will be plenty of storylines to follow!

So, on days like today, the best idea for a topic to discuss is: Predictions.

Predictions are always fun. We can voice our opinions and even if they seem funny now, after the long season, it's possible to be right.  We probably won't look back at them, but we can. So today, get your votes in for the following 2012 Twins awards:

1.) Twins Hitter of the Year 2012

2.) Twins Pitcher of the Year 2012

3.) Breakout/Surprise Offensive Player of the Year for the Twins 2012 (not necessarily the best hitter, but a guy who far exceeded expectations) -

4.) Breakout/Surprise Pitcher of the Year for the Twins 2012 (may not be the best pitcher, but really stepped up)

5.) Twins Rookie of the Year 2012

6.) Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year 2012

7.) Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year 2012

Let's stop with that for today. We can make more predictions as the season approaches. My votes would be:

1.) Joe Mauer - One injury-plagued season should not deter people from remembering how good he is!

2.) Francisco Liriano - It's a contract year for him. If he wants to make any money, he better step up!

3.) Ben Revere - He made a lot happen last year in the field and on the bases, and he didn't even hit well. Watch him actually get on base in 2012 and see what happens! Should be fun!

4.) Matt Capps - If he's healthy, he is pretty good. Right now, people are very down on him, but he's solid when healthy.

5.) Liam Hendriks - I believe that if any of the starters get hurt in June or early July, Hendriks will be the guy to step in. Parmelee could be the guy if Morneau can't play.

6.) Oswaldo Arcia - Should be back completely at 100% Needs to cut down strikeout rate, but hits and hits for power to all fields.

7.) Alex Wimmers - many thought he would be last year, but it was a crazy season for the right-hander. He could jump 2-3 levels in 2012... we hope!

Get your predictions in today!

According to Joe Christensen, Danny Valencia has been working hard all offseason at improving his overall game. In addition to trying to repair his shoddy defense, he has used video to help him make a few changes to his offensive approach:

“Valencia, 27, also studied video of his at-bats and decided to make a subtle change with his hands. Last year, he would trap his hands toward his body, forcing a longer loop before his swing. Now, he is bringing his hands straight back, giving him a straighter path to the ball.”

Here’s a look at what Valencia has seen:

Focus on his hands. Notice that during his loading process, he drops his hands while bring the bat inside then brings his hands back up to his launch position. This action is what causes the “longer loop” as Christensen describes it.

Compare Valencia’s loading process to that of fellow right-hander and former teammate Michael Cuddyer:

Rather than moving his hands towards his body, Cuddyer simply shifts his set back to the launch position, maintaining the same linear plane and creating the “straighter path to the ball.”

From the side view, this will better highlight Valencia’s subtle hitch in comparison to how level someone like Cuddyer keeps his hands: 

What is interesting about this is that throughout his career, Valencia has had this hitch in his swing – at least it was a trait he featured dating back to at least 2008 in the Arizona Fall League. It is clear that he has a hitch but this approach worked well for him during his time in AA (.287/.353/.483 in 539 plate appearances), AAA (.289/.322/.421 in 484 plate appearances) and at the major league level last year (.311/.351/.448 in 322 plate appearances). Of course, when you come off a season like Valencia did in 2011, obviously the performance demands some answers.

Did his hitch derail his season? Were big league pitchers better at exploiting this than their minor league counterparts?

Delving into his batted ball numbers, you see almost mirror images of his batted ball output. The difference lies in the quality of ball put into play (a much higher well-hit average in 2010) which likely led to the large batting average on balls in play discrepancy:

(via Fangraphs.com & myInsideEdge.com)

Plate discipline-wise, the story remained the same as well. There was a minor growth in a tendency to expand the strike zone and his contact/strikeout rate both made movement in the wrong direction but none of those indicators are suggestive of someone struggling through a season:

(via Fangraphs.com & myInsideEdge.com)

So, there was not a spike in ground balls or a great inflation in fly balls that would lead someone to believe opponents were more successful at keeping him off-balance in 2011. Same goes for his plate discipline numbers. What’s more is that with the exception of a slight shift in more hard-velocity pitches thrown to him (fastballs, sliders) over off-speed stuff (change-ups, curves), Valencia saw almost the same palate of pitches.

Nevertheless, it is hard to ignore how quickly his hit rate dropped between the two years and how his ability to handle right-handed pitching disappeared as he went from hitting .280/.303/.410 against them in 2010 to .252/.303/.352 in 2011. Was it because of his longer swing? Probably not. Will adjusting it help? It’s very possible.

Without anyone in the system pressing him at third, the Twins went out an acquired a small insurance policy in Sean Burroughs. Burroughs, who had a solid defensive reputation and a decent minor league track record, may be the safety net for Valencia in 2012 – or a left-handed platoon option if Valencia cannot solve right-handers.

Based on his prior successful output with the hitch (or longer loop in his swing) combined with the batted ball and plate discipline data, it is difficult to pinpoint his 2011 woes on that part of his swing so changing that aspect is not a magic bullet for him to rebound in 2012. Still, if he’s able to adapt to the new approach, this should give him a quicker swing (perhaps covering the inside portion of the plate where he’s had some struggles). And, if he maintains a similar line drive rate in 2012, it would not be unexpected to see his BABIP increase and with it, his overall numbers too. 

Today’s mystery category? Let’s see if you can guess from the clues…

"What are the Twins television revenues?"

"Why is everybody bitching about a $100 million payroll?"

"Why couldn't the Twins sign Prince Fielder?"

If you didn’t get it, don’t be too hard on yourself - it’s a little convoluted. The category is “What questions avoid THE question?”

In Twins Territory, THE question has been: why did payroll go down $15 million following the second year of a publicly funded stadium? But because MLB teams keep their financial information so private, journalists are limited in the information they can dig up. Since that information doesn’t give the whole story - and because they want to share that information that they’ve uncovered - they find other questions so they can still publish the story. Or, they list what they found, and refer to it generally, but offer few specifics.

My pithy intro might suggest I’m being critical of that strategy. I’m not - for two good reasons. First, because these are usually fine questions to answer, and every answer adds a piece to the puzzle. Second, because I‘m about to do much the same thing.

On Friday night, in a Q&A session at the end of the Hot Stove Banquet, Twins President Dave St. Peter answered THE question candidly, if generally. He listed 3 factors:

1) The Twins stretched payroll slightly last year, and so the reduction isn't really $15M over last year's budget.

The last signing of last year's offseason was Carl Pavano, who signed for $8M. At the time, the Twins claimed they stretched a little to make that signing, and before that signing they were still looking into other players, albeit less expensive ones. So let's assume that accounts for $2-3M of the difference.

2) The Twins will need to pay more for draft picks then they did last year.

Last year the Twins paid about $3M for their top draft picks. This year the Twins will have five picks in the top 75. Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, we know almost exactly how much those picks should cost: about $11M.

That's $8M plus $2-3M from stretching last year and now the Twins are down ~$10-11M. We have $4-5M left to find.

3) Finally, St. Peter anticipates a drop in revenue. He clarified this a few minutes later when he said that revenues from the ballpark tend to normalize on a per capita basis. In other words, as the novelty of a new ballpark wears off, people spend less on each trip to the ballpark.

(By the way, the Twins also revealed during the media luncheon on Friday that they only anticipate about a 4% decrease in season tickets this year.)

That makes sense. Since payroll is supposed to be about 50% of the total revenue, a $4-5M decrease in payroll would reflect an $8-10M decrease in revenue. That seems high to me, but not totally unreasonable, especially when St. Peter added that they aren't budgeting for 3,000,000 in attendance this year.

(That last note, by the way, could further explain Phil Mackey’s story about Jim Pohlad taking a “wait-and-see” approach. When I read that story, I was outraged: ownership was expecting fans to make a financial commitment but wasn’t willing to make one itself. Reading between the lines, I wonder if the story isn’t a little different. After last year’s disaster, and with so much uncertainty, ownership directed management to use more conservative models for anticipated revenue. The effect is the same, and it’s essentially what Mackey’s sources said, but somehow this infuriates me less.)

This shouldn't be meant to imply that I approve, or even completely understand. For instance, I still believe it is pennywise and pound foolish to not invest and additional $2M in backup plans at two especially questionable roster spots. And it isn't clear to me why some of that decrease isn't offset by increases in shared national revenues, which consistently increase for MLB teams. I still haven’t answered the question.

But it gets us closer, and leads to some good news/bad news. The bad news is that the Pohlads are not the Ilitchs - they run a business as a business, and not as a charitable organization, no matter how much fun it would be to win a World Series. But it also implies that two of those three cuts should be one-time events.

Hopefully so will this payroll reduction. Which may have been the real $15,000,000 question I wanted answered.
 

Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five.

With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.

Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.

Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.

Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.

Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.

Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.

Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.

Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.

Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.

Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.

Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.

It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.

Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.

I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.

But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?