twins/mlb

A new year is upon us, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine the Twins' resolution for 2013: Get better. After consecutive putrid seasons that were essentially over by the All-Star break, the club is aiming to field a more competitive group in the coming campaign and beyond.

Certainly they've made some nice moves to address the "beyond" part, but what about the short-term? As I discussed with Aaron on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast over the weekend, there's a sizable difference between striving to compete and actually contending. For Minnesota, the latter is highly unlikely this year but the former should be expected.

As the Twins work to escape the AL Central cellar, they need to concentrate on making up ground against divisional opponents, most importantly in the pitching department. So let's take a look at all of the arms that have been added to the Central thus far, and see how the Twins' acquisitions stack up.

Below, I've listed all the major-league starting pitchers who've been signed, re-signed or traded for by teams within the Central, ranked by my subjective assessment of quality. If I missed anyone, please feel free to add names in the comments section.

1. James Shields (Royals)
2. Anibal Sanchez (Tigers)
3. Jake Peavy (White Sox)
4. Trevor Bauer (Indians)
5. Ervin Santana (Royals)
6. Jeremy Guthrie (Royals)
7. Wade Davis (Royals)
8. Vance Worley (Twins)
9. Brett Myers (Indians)
10. Kevin Correia (Twins)
11. Mike Pelfrey (Twins)

You can quibble a bit with the rankings, but looking over this list one thing becomes clear: every other team in the division has sought and landed higher quality on the pitching market than Minnesota. The Twins had a more urgent need for rotation help than perhaps any other team in baseball, and although they've been aggressive in the sense that they've added several players, the ones they've brought in compare poorly against those acquired by opponents. That's not even touching on the other side of the ball, where other clubs have been making additions (e.g. Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Mike Reynolds and Jeff Kepinger) while the Twins have been making only subtractions.

Minnesota was the worst team in the Central last year and the rest of the division seems to be only widening that gap this winter. Simply unacceptable.

The potentially good news is that there are still a few names on the market that would rank respectably on the list above and would considerably improve the grade of the Twins' offseason. These include Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders, but the crop is dwindling.

It's unclear whether Terry Ryan is interested in legitimately pursuing any of these players. If he doesn't, it will be difficult to look at his offseason as anything short of a failure.

With Mr. Bonnes still out of town, I stood in as the geek of the week with Aaron Gleeman for the latest GATG podcast. We spent about 100 minutes babbling about baseball and the Twins, discussing our favorite free agent pitching deals thus far and talking big picture for the local nine. Check out the latest episode via any of these channels:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes.

Through free agent signings and trades, the Twins have added three names to their 2013 starting pitching mix, along with a couple prospects who can help down the line.

As we assess the progress of this rebuilding unit, can we say with assurance that the three MLB pitchers they've added – Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey – are significantly better than the three that just exited as free agents – Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Scott Baker? I don't know that we can, and that is troubling.

Here's a look at how the best-case starting five would shake out if everything stayed the same:

1. Scott Diamond
2. Vance Worley
3. Kevin Correia
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Kyle Gibson

It's got the makings of a below-average rotation, with a chance to be respectable but a greater chance to blow up, especially with flimsy defensive support. Keep in mind that the last two on the list won't necessarily be ready to pitch in the majors right off the bat.

Behind these five names, the depth chart is an assortment of major question marks, including Liam Hendriks, Nick Blackburn, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries and Brian Duensing. It was quite clear last year that none of those players had what it took to start in the majors, so it'd be somewhat surprising if any (save for perhaps Hendriks) suddenly turned a corner and became an adequate piece.

Long story short, the Twins' immediate starting pitching outlook remains dreary. At this point, the addition of even one established quality starter would go a long way toward improving the unit's overall chances at staying afloat next season, but it's unclear Terry Ryan intends to do that.

As things stand, it's impossible for me to believe he could look at his current group and feel confident that they're likely to perform a whole lot better than last year's.

 The Minnesota Twins’ offseason has been interesting to say the least.

With the team trading away not one but two of their major league ready center fielders, the writing on the wall at 1 Twins Way appears to read that the focus is on the future. Outwardly, the Twins are sending the message that they are doing what they can to build a competitive team in 2013 but also taking measures to fortify the club for the coming years. Behind closed doors however, the tone may be different as the reality is that the organization recognizes the window for success begins at least one year down the road.

And this may be the reason why Justin Morneau could be traded yet this offseason.  

During the winter meetings, the Twins were reported to have been “gauging interest” from other teams on what they would give for Morneau. Obviously nothing materialized at the time and, furthermore, the Twins may have simply been testing the waters rather than outright shopping their first baseman. That said, as the team made abundantly clear after last season, no one is untradeable.

The conditions were not favorable at the time of baseball’s annual agent orgy, at least not for the first base market. Had someone like the Orioles offered up a top flight arm, Morneau may already be eating Maryland crab cakes. Instead, teams were still addressing other needs. Targeting vital up-the-middle position players. Trying to land top-of-the-rotation arms. The game’s top free agents had yet to sign. The dominoes were still mostly intact.

That changed yesterday when Angels signed outfielder Josh Hamilton out from under the Texas Rangers’ nose. Not only did the Rangers lose a talented player to their division rival, they also became fairly exposed from the left-side of the plate.

Because of that, it may not be long before the Rangers call on Morneau and ask: “How much?”

Aside from losing Hamilton’s production from the left side, they also have lost their designated hitter in Young. Potentially desperate to address those needs, Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels may be inquiring on Morneau soon. With the Angels launching themselves into the catbird seat of the AL West and the surprising and youthful Oakland A’s extremely competitive as well, Daniels will surely need to counteract what his rivals have done this winter.

From the Rangers’ perspective, targeting Morneau makes plenty of sense. In spite of witnessing a decline in his home run totals in recent years, a new venue could help rejuvenate the Canadian slugger. The Ballpark at Arlington is one of the most favorable environments for left-handed hitters to play. According to StatCorner.com’s Park Factors, Texas’s stadium has a home run factor of 117 (anything over 100 favors hitters). By comparison, Target Field’s confines thwart that type of power production to the tune of 78. In theory, Morneau’s numbers would be enhanced significantly with the Rangers.

Additionally, with one year left on his contract, it would be a relatively risk-free (minus the concussion, of course) deal for Texas. Under most circumstances, the idea of asking a team to absorb $14M for a 31-year-old with injury issues may be a tall task, however, Texas is one of a few teams who seem able to assume the risk. The Rangers, who have lost Hamilton’s previous contract ($15.25M), Mike Napoli’s ($9.4M) and a portion of Michael Young’s ($5.5M of his total $16M owed), have payroll space to add Morneau’s contract if they so choose. As it stands, they have roughly $50M committed to players (pre-arbitration contracts, of course) after reached $120M in 2012. After all, in addition to whatever revenue they generate for being one of the best attended teams in the American League (2 of 14), they also have approximately $80 million a year coming in from their TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest.

Conversely, by most measures, the Rangers are a smart team. Daniels has been one of the most impressive general managers in the game – building his organization from the ground up, emphasizing scouting, bringing in elite international talent and targeting quality free agents. After making several moves to acquire players like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster in recent years, he has also lost some notable prospect talent so it is hard to envision the Rangers sacrificing much in any deal.

Likewise, the overall market for Morneau was lukewarm at best at the deadline last year. Even losing a star player to a division opponent may not be enough to inspire Daniels to surrender the young pitching the Twins are hoping for.

Does Morneau make the Twins better in 2013? Yes. Would trading him upset the fan base? Of course. Is he untouchable? Obviously not. The Twins sent the message at the winter meeting that Morneau could be had for a price, not it appears that the Rangers maybe in a position where they might have to pay that.

 The Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame began in the year 2000 when they inducted former owner Calvin Griffith along with Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Kent Hrbek, and Kirby Puckett. Since then, one or two people (players or other Twins-related personnel) have been added each year. Last year, Camilo Pascual was named to the Twins Hall of Fame.

 Recently, the Minnesota Twins put their online ballot for the 2013 Twins Hall of Fame. The ballot includes 18 former Twins players. Ten hitters and eight pitchers comprise the ballot. Today, I’m going to post some numbers for the hitters and the pitchers before I rank the candidates, 1 through 18. In the comments, let us know which former players you would vote for, and why. Then, go to the Twins website and make your actual votes.

Let’s take a look at the candidates.

THE STARTING PITCHERS

 
THE RELIEVERS

 
THE HITTERS

 
THE RANKINGS

Let me again say that this ranking is mine. Each of you will likely switch some players around and although it could look similar, it could also look completely different.

#18 – Dan Gladden – OF – 1987-1991

Gladden came to the Twins before the 1987. He was the team’s leadoff hitter on the two Twins championship teams. He scored the World Series-winning run in the 10^th inning of Game 7 of the 1991 World Series after his hustle double. He was a solid left-fielder, but he was a leadoff hitter with a .318 on-base percentage. Maybe he can make the Twins Hall of Fame several years down the line for his radio work.

#17 – John Castino – IF – 1979-1984

Castino was the co-AL Rookie of the Year in 1979 along with Alfredo Griffin. Unfortunately, his career was shortened by back injuries.

#16 – Jeff Reardon – RH RP – 1987-1989

Like Gladden, Reardon also came to the Twins before the 1987 season. Although he posted a 4.48 ERA that season, it was such an improvement from The Ron Davis days that people thought it was good. He was actually much better in 1988.

#15 – Jim “Mudcat” Grant – RH SP – 1964-1967

Grant has done quite well for himself after his playing days with a career in music. He was also very good on the mound. He was a huge part of that 1965 World Series team when he won 21 games. He struckout pretty much no one, and he walked no one. He was also a pretty good hitter.

#14 – Brian Harper – C – 1988-1993

Harper came to the Twins as a journeyman before the 1988 season. He established himself as a very good batting average-hitting catcher with some doubles power. Although he refused to walk, he put together solid at bats. He was a key to the 1991 World Series team.

#13 – Dean Chance – RH SP – 1967-1969

Chance could probably be higher on this list, but he played for the Twins for just three years. He had a no-hitter, and he won 20 games in 1967. He was worth 12 WAR in just three seasons.

#12 – Eddie Guardado – LH RP – 1993-2003, 2008

Guardado’s overall numbers certainly don’t look great. He was not good as a starter his first couple of seasons. Although he earned the “Every Day” nickname, his first several seasons in the Twins bullpen were not successful. However, from 2001-2003, Guardado did a tremendous job as the Twins closer. His ‘stuff’ was not all that impressive, but he was all guts.

#11 – Larry Hisle – OF – 1973-1977

Hisle is another guy who did not spend a lot of time with the Twins, likely because he played so well he priced himself out of Mr. Griffith’s comfort zone. He posted hi 15.8 WAR in just four seasons.

#10 – Tom Brunansky – OF – 1982-1988

“Bruno” came to the Twins from the Angels as a 21-year-old who had just made his big league debut. He joined the other young Twins who came up in 1982 and provided the nucleus for that 1987 team. He represented the Twins in the 1985 All Star game. He was quite durable in his time with the Twins, and although he didn’t hit for average, he averaged over 28 homers a season from 1983 through 1987. He is now the Twins hitting coach.

#9 – Dave Boswell – RH SP – 1964-1970

Boswell is best known for his 1969 fight in Detroit with manager Billy Martin, but he also won 20 games during that season and was a solid performer for the Twins. He actually threw hard and unlike most pitchers from that era, he wasn’t afraid to try to miss bats. Boswell passed away this past June.

#8 – Al Worthington – RH RP – 1964-1969

Worthington was the Twins’ closer during the pre-closer era. He actually came to the Twins in 1964 as a 35 year old reliever. He debuted with the New York Giants in 1953, and he was just a 5^th or 6^th starter and long reliever for parts of seven seasons. He was in the minor leagues in 1961 and 1962 before resurfacing. However, once he got to the Twins, he was a dominant reliever for five years. He didn’t post an ERA over 2.84 until his final (age 40) season.

#7 – Roy Smalley – SS – 1976-1982, 1985-1987

Back in the 1970s, shortstops were supposed to be just good glove little guys. Smalley was the Twins shortstop during his first stint in the organization and provided 25-30 doubles and 18-20 home run power. He came back to the Twins as a part-time player in 1985 and ended his career with the 1987 World Series champion team. He now is an analyst for the Twins on Fox Sports North.

#6 – Kevin Tapani – RH SP – 1989-1995

Tapani came to the Twins from the Mets in the Frank Viola trade. He put together several solid, innings-eating seasons. He was kind of Brad Radke before Radke as he walked hardly anyone. His career season was 1991 when he was 16-9 with a 2.99 ERA in 244 innings.

#5 – Cesar Tovar – IF/OF – 1965-1972

Tovar was a player who could do it all. He played everywhere during his time with the Twins, and not just in the 1968 game in which he played all nine positions. From 1968-1971, he was a well-above average player. He played every day (and even played 164 games in 1967). He led the lead with 204 hits in 1971. He led the league in 1970 with 36 doubles and 13 tripled. He stole 186 bases during his time with the Twins.

#4 – Shane Mack – OF – 1990-1994

As I wrote last week, the former Rule 5 pick is one of the most underrated players in Twins history. A bust with the Padres, Mack became one of the best outfielders in baseball during his first years with the Twins. His 130 OPS+ shows just how much better than league average he was for that entire time frame. He did it all. He hit for average, got on base, showed power, stole bases and played great defense.  

#3 – Corey Koskie – 3B – 1998-2004

Speaking of underrated, the Manitoba native put up some very good numbers during his time with the Twins. He came up to the Twins as a project, a defensive liability at third base. Through hard work, he became one of the better defensive third basemen in the league. He had some power, and he took tremendous at bats.

#2 – Dave Goltz – RH SP – 1972-1979

The Minnesota native got to live a dream of playing for his home-state team. Goltz didn’t strike anyone out, certainly not unusual in that era, but he also had good control. He won 20 games in 1977 when he also threw 303 innings. From 1974-1978, he never posted an ERA over 3.67, and his best ERA was 2.49 in 1978. The innings caught up to him. After leaving the Twins, he fought arm problems and only had one more season in which he threw more than 90 innings.  

#1 – Chuck Knoblauch – 2B – 1991-1997

By the numbers, Knoblauch is clearly the best player on this list. The 1989 first-round pick had an incredible debut in 1991. He was the AL Rookie of the Year that season and was an ideal top-of-the-order hitter for the World Series championship team. He was a tremendous defensive second baseman who, if not for Roberto Alomar, would have won several gold glove awards. He became the team’s leadoff hitter and his .391 on base percentage. He stole 276 bases. He eventually added some doubles power. Things got a bit weird for Knoblauch and his career after he was traded to the Yankees, but Knoblauch is one of the greats in Twins history.

So there you have my thoughts. I would probably cast a vote for my #1-5 choices, but it would be in this order. What do you think? Cast your vote in the Comments and then on the Twins site. 

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Be sure to check out the transcript from last night's Live Chat with Aaron Gleeman on Twins Daily. If you want to do a Twins podcast, John and Aaron let you know how to get started. 

For the first time in his tenure as manager, Ron Gardenhire will enter the 2013 season without a contract extension in place that carries him beyond the coming year. Lacking job security, Gardenhire spoke openly last week about the possibility of moving on.

"If I don't make it through this year, I'll be OK," Gardenhire told reporters during the Winter Meetings. "I've had a great opportunity here, I love the Minnesota Twins, I love where I'm at and hopefully I stay there for the rest of my career, however long that may be. We all know what happens in this game -- you're held accountable and I'm held accountable. I'm not worried about a contract extension. That's not up to me."

For his part, Terry Ryan has tried to steer the microscope away from Gardy, stating that responsibility for the product on the field falls more onto his shoulders than the manager's. Still, one can't ignore the realities of a disenchanted fan base that will grow all the more irate if forced to sit through another non-competitive season in this young ballpark, and it's obvious that Gardenhire is ahead of Ryan on the chopping block.

If the Twins are truly prepared to evaluate the long-time skipper based on the upcoming season and make a change if things don't improve significantly – a respectable stance given that the club has sunken to the bottom of the American League under his watch – it's starting to look like they might be setting him up for failure.

I want to believe Ryan's claims that the team isn't ready to punt in 2013, but players like Kevin Correia won't help much and with the Royals emphatically making their push by acquiring a legit ace in James Shields, the division gets that much tougher. Ryan has balked at the market for legitimate free agents and his recent trades of Denard Span and Ben Revere for young pitching, along with statements that he's willing to listen on Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau, suggest that the true aim is to field a contending club in 2014 at the earliest.

That's dandy for the long-term health of the franchise, but it's not so dandy for the manager whose job is on the line in the short-term. If Gardenhire enters the 2013 campaign with a roster that closely resembles this year's -- plus a few mediocre starting pitchers and minus a couple quality outfielders -- it'd be tough to expect much improvement in the W/L column. And another 90-loss season would almost certainly spell the end for Gardy, right? Even if the Twins are internally committed to a rebuild, managers just don't survive three consecutive last-place finishes often.

In his live chat at Twins Daily last week, ESPN 1500's well-connected Doogie Wolfson said he's been getting the sense that the team is prepared to go through another down year and then make a managerial switch. He brought up Paul Molitor's name, which would help explain Gardenhire's reluctance to add Molitor to the staff this season.

All in all, it seems like a raw deal for Gardy. Barring an unforeseen spending spree to add immediate impact talent, the manager will need to pull off the improbable by making this rebuilding roster competitive or quite possibly lose his job.

It's no wonder he grumpily complained to reporters during the Winter Meetings that the front office was "trading my whole damn team." Even if he believes that these moves are for the betterment of the franchise in the long haul, they do him very little good.

~~~

Tons of new content on Twins Daily today, including:

* Seth goes through 12 questions with Twins prospect Nate Roberts. He also takes a look at the latest week in the Winter Leagues.

* Parker takes an in-depth look at Trevor May, the pitching prospect acquired in the Ben Revere trade.

* Make sure to stop by the site later tonight, when Aaron Gleeman of NBCSports.com will host a live chat and answer your Twins-related questions after a busy week of hot stove action.