Jim Souhan analyzes the local sports scene and advises you to never take his betting advice. He likes old guitars and old music, never eats press box hot dogs, and can be heard on 1500ESPN at 2:05 p.m. weekdays, and Sundays from 10 a.m.-noon.

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Posts about All-Stars and honors

Mauer's value

Posted by: Jim Souhan Updated: July 31, 2013 - 9:08 AM

Everytime I write something nice or even neutral on Joe Mauer, I get emails. Oh, I get emails. Mostly from people telling me he's overpaid.

Well, if he is overpaid, it's not by much.

There are two ways of assessing a veteran player's monetary value. One is anecdotal. Talk to people in the game. They said Mauer would have made a killing as a free agent had he become one. Can you imagine what the Red Sox would have paid for a potential Hall of Fame catcher in his prime with a swing that might produce 50 doubles a year off the Green Monster, and who would constantly be on base in front of their sluggers? Probably $25 million a year. And all quality free agents end up being paid more than their actual value, because the bidding becomes a competition between super powers.

So Mauer is certainly worth $23 million anecdotally.

In terms of statistical valuation, I always turn to the great site Fangraphs.com, which calculates the obective value of a player.

Here is how Fangraphs values Mauer, year by year, since 2006: $23.1 million, $12.7 million, $26.6 million, $34.5 million, $21 million, $6.1 million and $21.2 million. This year, he is valued, so far, at $21.5 million.

Obviously, when he doesn't stay on the field, he's not worth the money, which is why 2011 was such an abomination.

When he is on the field, he's worth about what the Twins are paying him. Factor in that the Twins signed him in part to keep his contract status from ruining the opening season at Target Field, and he was an incredible bargain from 2006 through 2009, and the Twins and their fans have little to complain about other than the mystery ailments of 2011.

Mauer's real problem is he plays for a bad team. He doesn't have people on base ahead of him, and he doesn't have people who can drive him in batting behind him. He's not as valuable as Miguel Cabrera, but he's more valuable than the great majority of players with big-money contracts.

He's also the Twins' only above-average position player. He's not the guy you should be complaining about.

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I'll be on 1500ESPN at noon with Judd & Dubay. Please follow me on Twitter at @Souhanstrib.

What a game

Posted by: Jim Souhan Updated: July 23, 2013 - 11:01 AM

Ryan Braun is a fraud, and anyone who believed his previous denials about PED use is a fool, and what more is there to say about him? He's a drug cheat, and there will be more, and if baseball ever eliminates all drug cheats ballplayers will find other illicit advantages. This story will never end.

So last night while the Braun news was breaking, I just watched a ballgame, and was reminded of the beauty of baseball.

It was a meaningless game between two lousy teams, but strip the context away and the Twins' victory over the Angels last night was everything you could ask for in a night of entertainment.

Doug Bernier got his first big-league hit and RBI. Clete Thomas hit a double and a homer and made a game-saving catch. Glen Perkins sweated through a highly-difficult four-out save. Best of all, Sam Deduno showed more emotion on the mound in seven innings than many pitchers do in their entire careers.

This is why baseball survives work stoppages and drug scandals, and bad umpiring and terrible public relations, as evidence by the silly wording of the statements from Braun, the Players Association and MLB last night: The game can be great on any given day.

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I'll be on 1500ESPN at noon with Judd & Dubay.

Leyland was right

Posted by: Jim Souhan Updated: July 17, 2013 - 10:35 AM

Glen Perkins messed up. He had a chance to make it big on the national stage. All he had to do Tuesday night was chase down Mariano Rivera as Rivera neared the Citi Field mound, push him out of the way, and pitch the eighth inning for the American League. He coulda been famous.

It's a shame Perkins didn't get in the game, but he'll have another chance. Tuesday night belonged to Rivera, and, by extension, to Tigers manager Jim Leyland, who did everything he could to win the game while paying homage to the Yankee great.

Leyland nailed it. He used Rivera in the eighth inning, knowing that if the National League rallied to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth off of someone else that Rivera could wind up without a chance to pitch in his last All-Star game.

Then, Leyland told his other players to stay off the field while Rivera warmed up, leaving the stage to the most accomplished closer in history.

Because this is the Twitter Universe, Leyland immediately took heat from people who couldn't figure out the possible scenarios.

Leyland got it just right. He ensured that Rivera would have his moment, and what a moment it was.

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T'oday's column is on John Randle's love of golf. I've never done a column quit like this one. I asked John one question about golf, and he spoke, rapidly and passionately, for 12 minutes straight.

So when I sat down to write, I just got out of the way and let John speak.

It's good to see John in such great shape and good spirits. I covered John when the Vikinigs signed him as an undrafted free agent out of little Texas A&I. I saw him out-hustle and outwork more talented players to become a Hall of Famer.

Monday, he was playing Hazeltine and helping promote one of the many charities for which he does work: The St. David's Center for Child & Family Development.

You can find out more about St. David's here: stdavidscenter.org

Thanks for reading.

I'm very jealous of John's golf game, by the way.

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I'll be on Judd & Dubay at noon on 1500ESPN, and running Sunday Sports Talk 10-noon on Sunday morning.

 

Why I don't hate the HR derby

Posted by: Jim Souhan Updated: July 16, 2013 - 10:12 AM

Here's why I don't hate the home-run derby as much as most baseball writers:

It's on cable TV.

Modern-day cable.

Are we really going to start enforcing old-school standards on modern cable?

Have you seen what becomes a hit on modern cable TV?

Duck Dynasty: A show about inbred southerners who make duck calls. (It's actually pretty funny in small doses, but Shakespeare it ain't.)

Cooking shows: Get one angry chef and a bunch of lowlife wannabe chefs and have 'em cook stuff. Brilliant!

Reality TV about wives: I'd review this genre if I could bring myself to watch any of it.

By these standards, the home-run derby IS Shakespeare.

Chris Berman is an embarrassment to himself and his profession, but the home-run derby is mediocre cable TV stretched out long enough to fill prime time. It's not awful. It's just not as good as ESPN and MLB want it to be.

It's like the NBA all-star game. There's no defense, but it can be interesting if the right personalities are involved.

The Josh Hamilton-Justin Morneau duel was fascinating theater. Seeing Yeonis Cespedes win the Derby on the same day that the San Francisco Chronicle published a wonderful story about his and his family's struggles to make it to America was heartening. Seeing Bryce Harper hit homers off his father's nasty cutter gave us insights into what made Harper such a prodigy.

It ain't Mad Men or Breaking Bad, but even those brilliant shows offer a few bad episodes.

The home-run derby is like most cable television: A decent way to kill time when nothing better is on.

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I'll be on 1500ESPN at noon with Judd & Dubay. Planning a couple of name guests for Sunday Sports Talk, 10-noon on Sunday on 1500ESPN, following the Ron Gardenhire Show at 9:30. (We will take a lot of calls this week if you'd like to ask the manager anything.)

Please follow me on Twitter at @Souhanstrib.

What a lousy game

Posted by: Jim Souhan Updated: September 11, 2012 - 10:51 PM

Twins lose, 9-1, tonight. The Twins announced 28,993, which might have been within 10,000 or so of being correct.

It was ugly. Josh Willingham says he lost a fly ball in the twilight. That led to a three-run inning that goes on Scott Diamond's record. And that was about all that happened.

A few tidbits-

-Ben Revere continues to play with a lot of life. He went 3-for-5, his 38th mutli-hit game. Joe Mauer leads the team with 43. Revere also made a fine running catch in left-center.

Revere got a handshake and a few sentences of praise from Tom Kelly in the dugout before the game. Kelly doesn't offer false praise.

I think Revere should be this team's centerfielder next year. But I've been saying that for a while.

-Justin Morneau went 2-for-3 and is hitting .326 in his last 62 games and .357 in his last 17 games. Some of my insiders say he still struggles to cover the whole plate, but I see him getting hits to leftfield, which is always the sign that he's staying back and swinging well.

-The Twins have scored one run or fewer 24 times this year. While their rotation is the most important area of concern, that's a pathetic statistic for what should be a professional lineup.

-Scott Diamond allowed four runs in six innings, but I thought he battled pretty well despite Willingham's mistake and without his best stuff.

-Pedro Florimon continues to dazzle on some plays, but I see him being a little too lax on relays. He could have thrown one or two runners out at third tonight had he been alert on one play and had he thrown accurately on another.

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To chime in on a popular national debate, I think the aspect of the Stephen Strasburg debate that is too often missing is that the Nationals aren't shutting down someone who would likely have dominated in the postseason. They're shutting down a young pitching coming off Tommy John surgery who likely would have been hitting a wall in October, even if the Nationals had rested him to stretch his workload into the postseason.

In my view, it's unlikely he would have pitched well against top competition while fatigued. The Nationals have a deep rotation without him. Whether or not the Nationals handled Strasburg correctly, they'll be better off with starting pitchers in the postseason who aren't reaching their physical limits.

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I'll be on 1500espn at 2:05 p.m. tomorrow. Please follow me on Twitter at @Souhanstrib.

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