twins/mlb

I understand that many Twins fans are skeptical about the future of the team, and I share their skepticism to some degree. My main reason for feeling shaky is the lack of foresight in the front office that allowed the team to deteriorate as much it has in the last couple of seasons. After a decade sprinkled with division titles, it is still unfathomable that we're now discussing whether or not the 2012 Twins will lose 100 games and whether things will be any better in '13.

My main reason for hope is the turnover in the front office, which seems to be bringing a more aggressive approach to fixing the Twins' problems. The demotion of Nick Blackburn on Monday -- not only sending him to the minors but taking him off the 40-man roster -- was a sign of the demeanor that I hope Terry Ryan exhibits more frequently, both in managing down to the field and up to team ownership.

Monday's move basically relegated $8.5 million in ill-advised contracts (the money owed Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka) to the minor-league roster. If you want to get a sense of how wretched Blackburn has been -- not only recently but since 2010 -- you should take a look at Aaron Gleeman's newest blog post. (If you don't want to look, Gleeman shows that Blackburn has basically turned every hitter he's faced "into a better version of (Justin) Morneau" since the start of 2010.)

Now, that should make you look

The Blackburn demotion came about a week after Ron Gardenhire said on his weekly radio show that Blackburn will be one of the team's pitchers again in 2013, a comment that I'm sure sent shudders through those who will need to convince ticket-buyers to remain faithful.

Honestly, I let that remark go in one ear and out the other because I remember the last run of lean times when Tom Kelly used to say of his roster that it was his job to use the players given to him by the general manager. I filed the Gardenhire comment on Blackburn as stuff managers say.

Suspecting ulterior motives is part of the deal. We can debate the backstory about why the Twins didn't call up Chris Parmelee last week and I'll suggest that, maybe, the Twins were trying to keep Rochester's roster as strong as possible because of the team's outside shot at a playoff berth. Far-fetched? Not after Rochester and the Twins just agreed to a two-year extension of their working agreement after some prior queasiness in their relationship.

The Twins can say they wanted to take a look at Matt Carson instead of bringing back Parmelee, and they could well be telling the truth and not the whole truth. The same could apply if the Twins call up a pitcher other than Liam Hendriks for Wednesday's start at Oakland. (Update: So much for that part of the theory: the Twins have called Hendriks.)

The next wait-and-see will be how aggressive the Twins are in the free-agent market, which the Twins have been reluctant to enter with the enthusiasm  that some would like. I'll repeat the short version rather than go into depth: The Twins need a couple of proven starting pitchers, bullpen help and a solid middle infielder to get them where they need to be for 2013, and provide a bridge to their future.

I'm going to trust Ryan to convince ownership to go that route and trust his skills to make good choices with more money than the Pohlads may have been planning to spend. If the discussion going into next season is whether the Twins are a better bet to lose 90 games or 100, then the Target Field stands will start looking like a cross between what we're seeing this week in Oakland and the student section for Gophers football at TCF Bank Stadium.

Trust me on that.

We really shouldn't be surprised by anything that happens with the Twins over these final six weeks of the season as they try to figure out which of their moving parts should still be in motion as the team careens toward 2013.

The short version is that the Twins are without nearly enough starting pitching, a middle-infield combination, bullpen depth and enough bats on the bench to be taken seriously. There's enough stuff to be sorted out that waiting until the 25-man roster limit disappears on Sept. 1 doesn't give them enough time, which helps to explain the Pedro Florimon-for-Brian Dozier swap at shortstop.

Twins president Dave St. Peter tweeted Tuesday night that he sensed "angst over the Dozier move." Another tweet that flew across my screen complained to a local TV station that the Twins were sending down their best shortstop.

Angst and outrage are not called for. TwinsCentric's Nick Nelson described his play as being "roundly awful for a full three months," and others in the local blogging community have done a good job putting Dozier into context, including this Aaron Gleeman post.

In the office, a colleague called out during Wednesday's loss, "Was Dozier any better than Nishioka?"

Well, in 240 plate appearances last season, Nishioka had a hideous on-base percentage of .278. In 340 this season, Dozier's was .271. (Defensively, despite his errors, Dozier is superior.) The difference, of course, is that the Twins:

1) went halfway around the world in pursuit of Nishioka.

2) gave away J.J. Hardy to make room for him.

3) committed money that could have gone elsewhere while adhering to the "payroll as a percentage of revenue" mantra.

4) created the mess that Dozier was being asked to cover up.

Given the state of the season, it was fine for the Twins to give Dozier a chance to play through his mistakes, but it's also fine to give a look to Florimon, who comes with defensive skills and no pretense of adding offense, before the rosters expand and the remaining games take on even more of a March-in-Florida feel.

Keep in mind that Scott Diamond's call-up was seen as more of a prayer than a solution earlier this season and that Darin Mastroianni's arrival came only after the arrivals and failures of outfielders KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKlete Thomas (16 K's in 28 at-bats, if you didn't count) and Erik Komatsu with his 46 OPS+.

Sometimes you try stuff and it works; sometimes you try stuff and get embarrassed. Given the circumstances, you have to be willing to understand both.

I won't be surprised if the Twins are very, very conservative with Denard Span's return in order to give Parmelee a look in right field and figure out how he fits into their future. I'm not at all confident that there will be any market for Justin Morneau (and not saying at this point whether there should be), so looking at Parmelee at first base for next season isn't on my radar. However, if he can be a successful outfielder, that could free up Span as bait for middle infield and/or pitching help.

The other ongoing tryouts are on the pitching staff. Which members of the Filler D's -- Diamond, Duensing, Deduno and De Vries -- will be serious candidates to start in 2013 and beyond? Diamond, of course, is the best bet, and I want to give Duensing the benefit of the doubt because of the way he's been moved from bullpen to rotation to bullpen to rotation in the last two seasons.

And Deduno is enough of a trip to watch that I can roll with him through the end of the season and then revisit my wildness-driven skepticism.

I'm sharing this statistic only if you promise not to accuse me of comparing Deduno to one of baseball's gods: Nolan Ryan averaged 5.5 walks per nine innings over the first half of his career (when he was barely a .500 pitcher) and then 3.8 over the second half (when he was among the most dominant). It was a different era, but Ryan also had some tiny ERAs while he was handing out lots of walks.

Again, that was NOT a comparison.

But if Deduno can find some command to go with the incredible movement on his fastball...

However, none of those guys -- not Cole De Vries or Nick Blackburn or P.J. Walters or Kyle Gibson or Scott Baker or anyone else -- abdicate management's responsibility to bring in a couple of proven starters for 2013, guys who would be considered at least No. 2 starters. The current Twins are a staff, at their best, of third, fourth and fifth starters. (Diamond needs to have more than 18 starts in a season before I'll move him any higher.)

The bullpen needs help to go with Glen Perkins and Jared Burton. Beyond them, there are no sure things for 2013. The coming weeks will show how many of the young guys are keepers and how much time the Twins will have to expend in scouting and signing the next batch of set-up/middle innings guys.

Here's a list of potential free agents, if you want to play along with the front office.

So don't fret much over the shuttling of personnel over these final weeks. Given what the Twins created for themselves, it's something that has to be done.

I've written this before, but Francisco Liriano was so incredibly bad during much of his time with the Twins, that people had a tendency to treat a solid six-inning performance as great work. It was only "great" in a participation-medal sort of way. "Good job, Frankie. We know better things are ahead for you." (Even though "we" knew better.)

Things got so silly that some folks talked about whether Liriano's recent spate of acceptable work was due to the fact that he'd started chewing gum on the mound.

C'mon, people.

Many of the comments attached to the news story about the trade are lamenting that the Twins defied conventional wisdom and traded Liriano to a division rival.

Granted, you typically don't want to do that.

This isn't typical.

The Twins got what they could for him and, if Liriano stays with the White Sox after this season, the Twins could face him time after time in seasons to come.

The Twins should welcome those opportunities in the same way that Detroit (6.13 ERA), Cleveland (5.67 ERA) and the White Sox (5.77 ERA) have welcomed the chances to swing at his pitches.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the Twins were in a tougher place in terms of getting any significant return for Liriano. This deal makes it clear that, whatever kind words you may hear from the Twins on his departure, management gave up on Liriano and went into addition-by-subtraction mode.

Liriano could have continued an illusion of competence by pitching well in meaningless games in the final two months of the season, causing the fool-me-again crowd to wonder whether this was the time he would turn things around. I'm glad Terry Ryan declined to go there.

Make no mistake: There's heavy lifting to be done to return the Twins to relevance. If addition-by-subtraction is the only arithmetic that gets done between now and next season, Target Field will be an unhappy place.

This Francisco Liriano thing looks to be playing out quite sloppily. After a series of good to excellent starts -- sometimes people have mistaken good starts for great ones because of Liriano's awful work earlier this season -- he melted down in Chicago on Monday night.

Less than three innings, three home runs, seven runs allowed, no command.

Some people are bemoaning that Liriano pretty much nuked his trade value with Monday's performance.

Not really. There wasn't much trade value before that, in part because of changes in the free-agent compensation rules that are frequently talked about and not always completely understood. And, in another part, because Liriano doesn't exactly bring a track record of quality to market.

The bigger issue for Twins fans is the game of chicken being played by the team.

Here's the deal: In order for the Twins to get draft-choice compensation for Liriano, they would have to offer him a one-year contract for about $12.5 million --the average of baseball's top 125 salaries. Liriano would have to decide whether to accept the deal or look elsewhere, most likely for a multiyear deal.

These are new rules that will be in effect for the first time after this season. Here's the best primer on the rules, from the website mlbtraderumors.com.

Do the Twins want to risk making an offer and having Liriano accept it? Fool me once...

Do Twins fans want to hear that other moves will be limited because the Twins spent $12.5 million to keep Liriano? You can fool some of the people...

There's more that works against the Twins. For one thing, a team trading for him will not be eligible for free-agent compensation. So Liriano would basically be a two-month rental. For another, teams looking at Liriano aren't just looking at his recent success when figuring their offers and counteroffers. You're not going to get a Top 25 minor-league prospect, the way Miami did when it got pitcher Jacob Turner from Detroit on Monday for starting pitcher Anibel Sanchez and second baseman Omar Infante.

Interest in Liriano is one thing; interest at more than a modest price is another. Teams know that starting pitching is the Twins' biggest need to again become competitive, so when they see Liriano being dangled, what conclusions do you think they're making?

So do the Twins shun modest offers for Liriano, and risk offering him $12.5 million after the World Series or losing him without getting anything in return?

Can they afford to trade him and not get much in return, like Seattle did when it sent Ichiro to the Yankees?

Can they afford not to deal him?

It's a messy situation the Twins have created for themselves, one without a good outcome.

What would you do?

You're going to read a lot about potential trades in the weeks to come. Some of it will be pretty frivolous, in the sense that even those who generally have keen insights may lose perspective from time to time.

If you look at the Johan Santana situation five years back, people with baseball savvy were writing that the Yankees could perhaps make fans forget some of their struggles by trading Santana for a package that would have included Ian Kennedy, who went 21-4 for Arizona last season, and All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera, plus others. Or the suggestion that a Santana deal would yield a star for the Twins. Robinson Cano, maybe, or Jose Reyes.

Instead, there was Carlos Gomez and the others.

And baseball's rules are different now, even from last year, in a way that won't facilitate some of the Twins dealing that's being imagined. Unless a team offers a free agent about $12 million, it won't receive a draft choice as compensation for losing him. So Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel wouldn't have fetched compensation based on the deals they were offered and eventually made with other teams.

What does that mean for the Twins as the trading deadlines approach? For one thing, don't expect much of anything for midlevel players.

Will contenders be very interested in Matt Capps when Kansas City's Jonathon Broxton, San Diego's Huston Street and Milwaukee's Francisco Rodriguez should be available now because their current teams won't make an effort to keep them under the new rules? We're dreaming if we imagine significant help coming this way for anyone other than Josh Willingham, Denard Span and Francisco Liriano. Anything else is strictly a salary dump with a body or two thrown in. (Think Delmon Young deal.)

Owing to his performance and contract, Justin Morneau has pretty much fallen into the salary dump category, and I can't imagine another team taking on his $14 million contract for this year and next. The Twins best hope is to hold on to him, hold out hope for improvement and see where he stands at this time in 2013, and again at the end of next season.

So where does that leave the Twins?

Needing to change the way they do business, at least in the short term.

Twins management talks of team payroll being a percentage of its revenues. That's fine, until the credibility -- or perceived credibility -- of the product is threatened. The Twins can talk about their $100 million payroll until Minnie and Paul turn blue, but the fact remains that 23 percent of that payroll is tied up for the next 6 1/2 years in Joe Mauer -- a move that had to be done by the Pohlads.

I have made the case previously that the Mauer contract needs to be considered as a separate item from the rest of the payroll. Kind of like an endowed chair at a college, supported by funds from outside of the regular budget. Ownership simply could not have moved into Target Field in 2010 with the Mauer situation unsettled. (The Angels and Tigers made first-cousin moves in their signings of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, paying them for a year or two longer than they are likely to be useful so they can better compete in the present. Better to do this on purpose than by accident -- see Wells, Vernon and Soriano, Alfonso.)

To say that the current and near-future payroll is limited by Mauer's contract is a disservice to anyone who follows the team. (Financial disclosure: I'm in for enough as a season-ticket holder to cover about 2 1/2 innings of Mauer's contract this season. Three innings, I guess, if you count expenditures on beer and the monster yams behind Section 102.) If the Twins need a couple of proven starting pitchers as an anchor for the coming years and a quality middle infielder, then they need to adopt a spend money-to-make money approach as part of becoming a contender.

That's what Wild owner Craig Leopold just did, right?

A total of $27 million comes off the payroll after this season if you assume the departure of Pavano, Liriano, Capps and Scott Baker. (I'll assume the Twins will offer Baker a smaller deal with significant incentives.) After 2013, another $22.5 million comes off the payroll with the Morneau, Nick Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka contracts expiring.

Should the Twins to commit that total -- $49.5 million, plus some "Mauer money"  -- toward the 2013 payroll? Yes, if they want to remain relevant, both in baseball and in the Twin Cities. Ownership can afford it.

The Twins have $43.5 million committed for 2013 to Mauer, Willingham, Span, Ryan Doumit, Glen Perkins and Jamey Carroll. Nobody else on the roster is due for a major salary bump through arbitration.

Terry Ryan has scored well with the Willingham, Doumit and Jared Burton signings and got an infield upgrade with Carroll. The team has done well with its handling of Trevor Plouffe, Scott Diamond and Ben Revere, and is rightly using the remnants of this season to figure out the futures of Brian Dozier and a few others. There are some interesting prospects in the minors and hopes that last month's amateur draft will yield significant pitching help in a few years.

The Twins aren't good right now, but they're interesting -- not like the Twins of the mid- and late-1990s, who were bad and uninteresting.

Despite their record, Ryan's staff is doing pretty well with the mess it was handed -- maybe as well as possible. But to talk about the Twins "improving to .500" next season, or needing a few seasons to become postseason competitive, isn't a discussion that most fans will want to hear. Not when 10 teams make the playoffs.

One more issue: The Twin Cities pro sports landscape has changed markedly and at a lightning pace. The Wild just spent megabucks on Zach Parise and Ryan Suter; the Timberwolves are again interesting and relevant, and the Vikings are getting their new stadium. So continued atrophy, or running in place, could easily land the Twins as No. 4 among the four major pro teams in the Twin Cities -- status as darning as being at the bottom of the weakest division in the American League.

Twins ownership needs to trust Ryan's baseball skills by being willing to go more-in financially.

Otherwise they'll risk people saying: "No, I don't want your Twins tickets. I'm going to see the Lynx."