

Startribune.com digital sports editor Howard Sinker used to cover the Twins and now shares season tickets with friends in Section 219 of Target Field. He blogs about baseball from the perspective of a long-time fan who loves the game, doesn’t always believe the hype and likes hearing what others think.
First of all, the Twins didn't intend for the news to come out this way, for the coaching staff casualties to dribble over over the course of Thursday in ones and twos.
That was the excellent work of writer La Velle E. Neal III, who was hard-wired into the organization and went all Brian Urlacher, totally disrupting whatever plans existed and reporting on the firings in as close to real time as they could be confirmed. La Velle was also in transit from Toronto to the Twin Cities, getting the information and getting it to startribune.com as quickly as he could confirm things.
Let me suggest that the Twins should get on with their overhaul with the same intensity that La Velle showed on behalf of Twins fans.
General Manager Terry Ryan decimated Ron Gardenhire's band of brothers Thursday -- firing three coaches, reassigning two and sparing the manager's best baseball buddy, pitching coach Rick Anderson. If we assume that the Rochester pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar, will take over as bullpen coach and Gene Glynn, the Rochester manager, will get a Twins coaching job, you can consider Gardy and Andy to be on a very short leash in 2013.
Talk all you want about the weak starting pitching -- or obfuscate even more and blame it on the injuries to several of the failed starters -- and you ignore the fact that the "Twins way" has become one of mental mistakes in all aspects of the game: Mental errors, giveaway at-bats, flawed pitching. All of those traits manifest themselves in a second season of frightful baseball unworthy of their new ballpark.
However hard the coaches and Gardy were working, things were lost when the messages were delivered from the staff to the players. Ten years ago, the Twins were in need of Gardy's folksy approach as a replacement for the taciturn Tom Kelly.
Now, Gardy is being told by Ryan that what his staff was doing had stopped working and that he'll be given one more chance to fix things without a staff of his own choosing. Faced with what Ryan decided, there are managers who would have walked away with their guys.
I'm going to take it as a good sign that Gardy decided to take on the challenge. Whether he can lead the change is an interesting and debatable question.
Over the last few weeks, when people have asked what I thought would happen, I suggested that things were too quiet for big changes not to be made. I am also certain that nobody in the Twins organization thinks a new coaching staff alone can be sold as big change.
Players will come and go during the off-season. I would bet on minimal drama before things happen and a couple of dramatic moves intended to make 2013 more than a season of meandering toward .500. Many of the empty seats that you could see at Target Field as the season wore on were generating revenue because they were held by absentee season-ticket holders. In my circle, many people are bailing out on their season-ticket investments -- cutting back or getting out entirely.
Baltimore and Oakland this season have shown what's possible. Keep in mind that, with better geography, either of those teams would have handily won the AL Central based on the bigger chunks of Twins, Royals and Cleveland on their schedules.
The Twins not only finished last in their division, but they finished last in the only division in baseball that had three teams lose 90 or more games. The AL Central finished 28 games under .500 against the West and 24 under .500 against the East. (The Twins were 22-50 outside of their division, a .305 winning percentage.)
What happened on Thursday was a message to Gardy. He will have a boatload of work to do during the winter, preparing a new coaching staff -- one that won't of his choosing, however the replacements get spun -- to function the way he needs when the Twins gather in Florida next February.
In return for keeping his job, Gardy has basically forfeited the right to make personnel decisions about his staff that, in a better situation, a GM wants to be able to mostly leave to his field manager. On Twitter, Patrick Reusse described Gardy and Andy as being on "double secret probation."
That's the price of stink.
What needs to happen next are more moves by Ryan and ownership to further show that the painful performances we've witnessed for two years will be replaced by ones we can watch without holding our noses and looking away.
The flaws of the Twins have been pretty well exposed even though there are still 143 games to play: The starting pitching is messed up, the defense is a drawer of mismatched parts, the hitting in key situations hasn't been nearly as good as the hitting overall. If you watched them leave 13 runners on base Wednesday night, maybe you noticed that, with two outs, the Twins went 0-for-8 with a walk and a hit batsman. (It wasn't 0-for-9 only because Sean Burroughs grounded into a double play with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth, ending a five-run inning in which he also made the first out.)
The Red Sox came to town struggling and left on a three-game winning streak.
The Twins played one disastrous game and two that were exciting. 1 + 2 = 3 more losses.
The end result for the Twins: A five-game losing streak and a 5-14 record. Monday's loss, as much as everyone wants to blame Matt Capps for the ninth-inning home run he gave up to Cody Ross, was aided and abetted by poor outfield defense. Parmelee in left, Span in center and Doumit in right sounds like an exhibition day afternoon alignment, not something you should pay for at Target Field.
All three games featured crummy starting pitching. I remember the word "warrior" being attached to Jason Marquis by one of the TV guys on Monday, but that was still five runs and 11 hits in six-plus inning -- and you'd be right to debate Gardy's letting Marquis go out for that plus inning when Ross bombed his other home run. Nick Blackburn and Liam Hendriks were worse. Much worse.
After Tuesday's thumping -- seven innings for me at Target Field and home in time for the final out -- Gardy said something about needing to use the guys they have. That's a summary of a longer and grumpier response in the TV part of the postgame dissection. If that's the case, then it's up to Gardy and Rick Anderson and Joe Vavra to move the starting pitching toward competence and get more intelligent at-bats from the offense. (How many outside pitches are being pulled into weak grounders?)
The way the Twins are playing, there are no "easy portions" to their schedule. Kansas City is here this weekend and fans will be treated to a series between teams with two of the three worst records in the majors. The Royals broke a 10-game losing streak Wednesday and are 4-14.
Speaking of fans, one friend tweeted during the Red Sox series: "Pleased #twins season ticket holder rep called to upgrade tonight's seats to lower deck. Sad because this is edging into #twolves territory."
Lots of times you can look at a team that gets off to a bad start and know it won't continue. Boston isn't going to continue at the pace they played at through the first couple weeks of the season. Neither are the Angels, who are 6-12 and still waiting for Albert Pujols (batting .222) to hit a home run.
The Twins? At the current pace, they'll lose 119.4 games.
Let's round that to 120. Right now, I don't doubt that could happen.
It was amusing to watch the postgame session with Gardy for FSN after Monday's Twins victory when he talked about the game and ended one of his thoughts by noting that some people have been writing that his team has been struggling. I took it as a cheerful chirp, although one of the FSN guys afterward called it "a shot."
Whatever.
Every now and again, people ask why I don't write more about the announcers, with the implication that any two people on a sofa in Edina or a bar stool at B-Dubbs could do a better job, which is pretty silly. We all have our stuff to do. TV and radio guys talk for hours on end, even when they might not have hours of great material. Beat writers and columnists offer up analysis that has the benefit of more perspective, more independence and more access than the rest of us have. Bloggers can sleep on stuff if they want and decide whether or not they have anything to add.
If anyone thinks the Dick 'n' Bert roles (or the studio or the radio jobs) are easy, you're wrong. That's one of the reasons I've become especially fond of Dan Gladden over the years as he's combined his rough-hewn honesty about the game with a radio presence that improves every year. Try talking your way through a game some time, staying on point and fresh, even on your sofa or at the bar.
(Now, for one of my favorite transitions: That being said...)
That being said, it was interesting to take a night off -- for the most part -- from the home team view in favor of watching the ESPN crew. Yes, one of the guys stumbled over Ryan Doumit's name and there was some naive-sounding stuff more geared to those who don't see the Twins as often as we do.
It was an interesting contrast to the local call.
This one could go on and on. But here's what i was struck by: As the ESPN guys were parsing Carl Pavano's performance, increasing their praise as the night went on and he found his groove, they went back and wondered whether Pavano gave up home runs to the first two Yankees batters -- Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson -- because he wasn't totally ready to pitch. One of them (and I apologize for not keeping track of whether it was Aaron Boone or Rick Sutcliffe) said it could have been because of the long first inning.
And they could have been totally wrong.
On the FSN postgame, Ron Coomer dismissed the home run pitches as one that Jeter "inside-outed" over the wall in right and Granderson's as a low and inside pitch that some left-handed batters are just bound to hit deep.
And Coomer could have been totally right.
They were two hugely different perspectives.
We all bring different perspectives to the ballpark or the sofa. Some of us will go to Target Field whether the Twins are 20 games under .500 or 20 games over. Others will become much more occasional followers, or claim to be, anyway. Some will really go away until things get better. And, again, all of those are appropriate.
I keep reminding myself that Dick 'n' Bert, and Cory 'n' Dan, and Anthony 'n' Robbie 'n' Marney 'n' Coomer 'n' Roy 'n' Kevin 'n' Tim Laudner are talking to a wide audience while representing a narrow perspective -- their employers. I understand that (even if I'm totally at a loss to explain the "Fox Sports North Girls," but that's for another day) and I'm not going to jump them for doing what they're paid to do.
That being said: Yes, Gardy, your team has been struggling. I know that you know it, too.
I was as grumpy as the next person watching the Twins at Target Field on Opening Day. The Twins went down that late afternoon in such humble fashion that I concluded there was a good reason why the Twins were distracting us with so many tales of their new food offerings -- and other thoughts that were less civil.
I played around with words, but held back on sharing any of them because everything -- from hooting at Joe Mauer's early performance to the lack of defense to my frustration over the Twins bullpen seemed either a bit premature or well-written about elsewhere. I try to live by a "when you don't have anything to add, add nothing" blog stance. (I try, but don't always succeed.)
There are still a bundle of concerns even though the Twins finally won on Tuesday.
You have been warned that the Twins have traded defense for offense this season, and that was manifest Wednesday.
Poor defense contributed to four of the Angels' runs, whether it was Josh Willingham slamming into the wall while trying to catch the fly ball that turned into an inside-the-park home run, or Jamey Carroll being unable to handle the skipping throw from Denard Span on Torii Hunter's seventh-inning double, not to be confused with the slow start Span got on Hunter's ninth-inning ground ball double.
Also, Carl Pavano made a poor throw on a grounder that could have started a fourth-inning double play, when the Angels scored their first run. That would have been close either way, but it was still a play that wasn't made nearly as well as it should have been.
There was also concern in the ninth inning when Gardy didn't pull either Willingham in left or Ryan Doumit in right for Ben Revere as a defensive replacement. Gardy told La Velle that he didn't want to take Willingham out and he was concerned about pulling Doumit in case something happened to Mauer.
It seemed like a pick-your-poison situation: Go with the guys who might not get to the ball or the guy who will have trouble making a good throw if he does get to it.
And good on Gardy for going with Parmelee during the winning rally. If Parmelee isn't good enough to bat against a pretty good -- but not great -- lefty reliever, then he's not good enough to be in the majors.
Day baseball today. Find an excuse to pay attention.
What do the Yankees, Red Sox and Twins have in common? They're all 0-3.
The difference between the Eastern teams and the local team is in the likelihood of losing 100 games or so.
Even before things started to come unwired toward the end of spring training, the debate over the weakest team in the AL Central always included a heavy dose of Twins talk. That was before Justin Morneau was relegated to DH and two of the expected five starting pitchers opened the season not in the rotation.
A team without much margin for error, even to reach .500, was being forced into make-do mode before the first pitch in Baltimore.
Add to that the compromises that had been struck by design and the recipe is there for an awkward season that could turn the Twins into successors to the pre-Rubio Timberwolves in how they are perceived in Minnesota.
Some of the compromises were on glaring display during the opening series of losses to the Orioles.
*When Morneau is the full-time DH -- a best-use decision for his health -- it means that Ryan Doumit has to use a glove. When he was signed as a free agent, the Twins made it clear that it was for his bat, not his defense. On Friday, he misplayed a deep fly ball into a triple -- taking a bad route and having the ball go off his glove -- that helped Baltimore stretch its 2-0 lead into 4-0. Ben Revere was the starting right fielder in the next two games, a compromise because his subpar arm is more suited for left, the position that Josh Willingham is playing, Gardy said, because Willingham is more comfortable there. (If you missed it, Willingham mishandled two balls for errors on Saturday.)
*The starting rotation is compromised by its reliance on hope: Hope that Francisco Liriano's spring training is more indicative of how he'll do than his 2011 season, that Scott Baker would be healthy and Carl Pavano would return to something close to his 2010 form. Saturday's start for Liriano was promising -- until the second inning. Baker, who should be the strongest starter, is out with arm problems and Jason Marquis isn't ready yet because of the attention he's properly paid to his daughter's health. Add to that Liam Hendricks' food-poising bout and Pavano's lack of velocity on Opening Day and the Twins are 5-for-5 in rotation issues just three games into the season. Are we going to have to hear about 2012 as Perfect Storm, the sequel?
*Over the winter, Terry Ryan opted to duplicate the painful path of 2011 in regard to looking for relievers. The Twins opted against the numerous veterans who were on the market -- save for re-signing Matt Capps -- in favor of another venture to the discard rack for guys no longer wanted by their previous employers. A bunch of them didn't make it out of spring training; a couple of them didn't look so good in Baltimore. Just after the TV guys were talking Saturday about Jared Burton's track record of not giving up home runs, two guys took him deep. Matt Maloney turned 1-0 into 3-0 on Sunday, in part because of a glaring mental mistake that resulted in a double steal. (See: Doing the little things right.) You were warned that a good March means little in April. Anyone remember Keith Comstock? Joe Klink? Tom Klawitter? Don't make me recite three decades of names.
Beyond those compromises, the Twins spent the opening series making three Orioles starting pitchers with mediocre (at best) career records look like C.J. Wilson, Jared Weaver and Dan Haren, the three Angels pitchers whom the Twins are scheduled to face at Target Field this week. Will the Twins will make those three look like Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller and Bert Blyleven? And for all of the appreciation of Anthony Swarzak's work on Sunday, if he wore Orioles colors, we'd be talking about him in the same terms that we've used for that team's starters.
Also, Gardy had issues with Danny Valencia's defense, Burton and Joe Mauer's inability to grasp the scouting report on Nick Markakis (No changeups, darn it) and Maloney's failure to watch runners. Combine that with a top-of-the-order that got four singles in three games and the other statistical shortcomings that should shake themselves out, and you have 0-3 with the next 10 games against postseason-built opponents.
Allow me to cherry-pick some numbers for a second: The Twins managed to finish 36 games under .500 in 2011 despite a midseason stretch of winning 30 out of 50 games. Take away that middle third and the Twins, counting this year's opening series, have a .287 winning percentage (33-82) going back to the start of last season.
For those of you who need to bring a math question to class this week, try this: A team that plays .287 baseball over a 162-game season suffers how many losses?
Answer: 116.
I'm not saying it will be that bad. The 1991 Twins lost nine of their 11 games (with Jack Morris going 0-3, 6.38) before getting straightened out and winning the World Series. The 1987 Twins, the other Series champions, gave up more runs than they scored and had a .358 winning percentage on the road.
Teams can find ways to overcome their shortcomings, so you'd be jumping to conclusions by kissing off the season with 159 games to play. (Offstage voice: OK, I'll give it another week.)
I am saying that the first weekend of games gave us very little about which to be optimistic. Will the first week of home games be any different?
You're not foolish to wonder.
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