Is Mauer Just Unlucky?

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Is Mauer Just Unlucky?

Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: June 23, 2010 - 9:38 PM

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We’re hearing Dick and Bert talk a lot about how unlucky Joe Mauer has been lately. Is that just homerism, or is there evidence to support it beyond the anecdotal?

I don’t think I’m breaking new ground when I say Joe Mauer is considered a line drive hitter. Usually that’s high praise, though to his detractors, it’s often said derisively to illustrate his lack of power. But Mauer has traditionally been an awfully good line drive hitter, which you might expect from a three-time batting champion.

(By the way, all of the next stats are coming from fangraphs.com. )

For instance, in 2008, he hit line drives 22.6% of the time. Among qualified hitters, that ranked 28th. Not as high as you might expect, given that he won a batting title that year.

In 2009, he hit again hit line drives 22.6% of the time. But this time that ranked 11th among qualified hitters in the majors.

This year, the year he’s in danger of falling below .300, he has seen that rate RISE. His line drive rate is up to 26.8%, which ranks him 3rd in the league. It’s the highest line drive rate he’s put up over any year of his career.

Now, line drive rate doesn’t necessarily correlate well to offensive production. (I’ll let someone who isn’t on vacation run the correlation for that.) For instance, the top line drive rate in the MLB is James Loney, and he’s hitting just .297.

But if you think your eyes are telling you that Mauer is getting unlucky - you’re probably right.

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For those of you in New York City this weekend to watch the Twins, several TwinsCentric guys will be there too. Nick and I (and Parker?) will be at Frankie Rodriguez's bar after Saturday's game with lots of other writers. Hope you can make it.

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