The Twins found yet another way to lose a game on Monday afternoon in Detroit. The team fell to just 17-35, They are now 14.5 games behind Cleveland and 5.5 games behind Kansas City for just fourth place in the division. The Twins are two games worse than any other team in baseball. As much as I want to believe that the Twins are historically a second-half team and really play great down the stretch. It is getting harder and harder to believe. For the longest time, I would say that I just wanted to get Joe Mauer and Tsuyoshi Nishioka back and play with a full lineup for a few weeks before I would admit that the hopes for a playoff spot in 2011 would be over. They are each likely at least two more weeks out, and frankly, by the time they get back, it will be too late.

So, what should the Twins do at this point?

There is one theme that should be considered throughout the rest of this season. Everything that happens the rest of 2011 should have 2012 in mind.

I am often asked if the Twins should have a fire sale and blow things up. To that, I say Absolutely Not. Although we haven't seen it yet this year, there is a lot of talent on this team. There have been injuries and return from injuries. There have been some weak spots in the roster that have definitely been exposed (see Bullpen, The). But when this team is running on all cylinders, there is no reason to believe that they can't win a lot of games in 2012 with some immprovement by players and some focus on addressing some needs.

So what does that mean to me? Probably different than it means to anyone reading this, and certainly different than the Twins front office may think. I'm sure that even within the Twins front office there are differing opinions on next steps. Here are my thoughts, and we would welcome your thoughts as well.

The first thing to do is to consider who will be back for sure in 2012:

  1. Joe Mauer will be back. The Twins aren't going to trade him, and that contract and his injury history and even his age are now at the point where, combined, there are only two teams that could take on the contract.
  2. Justin Morneau will be back. Again, the contract is going to mean that not a lot of teams would be able to acquire him, and his nijury risk and struggles to this point this season would mean that the Twins would not get much in return.
  3. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is going to stay on the roster in 2012.

Next, at this point in the 2011 season, the only way to make real change is through trades before the deadlines. Here are the players who could be traded this season:

  1. Kevin Slowey - It would appear it is just a matter of when he will be traded. At this point, they will try to get whatever they can for the talented right-hander.
  2. Carl Pavano - Throughout the offseason, I believed that bringing back Pavano would be a mistake. He would never duplicate what he did in 2010 and he would add dollars to the payroll that could be used elsewhere. However, when he signed for 'just' two years and $16.5 million, it was a reasonable contract for a guy capable of throwing over 200 innings. At this point, it would be great to trade Pavano to a team looking for a veteran. It will be difficult because of the 2012 portion of his contract.
  3. Scott Baker/Nick Blackburn - There likely would be little interest in Blackburn because of his lack of strikeouts, but he is capable of pitching a lot of innings. The reason that the Twins should consider trading him is because of the strikeout tally combined with his long-term contract. Baker would have a large market of teams interested in him because he does have good stuff and his strikeout totals have been very good. That is the reason the Twins should at least consider putting him on the market.
  4. Jason Kubel - Kubel is the one Twins hitter meeting expectations in 2011, and now he is out for a few days. The Twins could likely get a decent return for the Twins outfielder. However, he should be a Type A free agent at the end of the season, and the Twins could get two draft picks in next year's draft if he then signs elsewhere. So they would have to get something equivalent if they did trade him.
  5. Michael Cuddyer - The long-time Twins outfielder came into the 2011 season with just-shy of eight years of service time, so any reports you have read that he has 10-5 rights (and can veto any trade) are not true. There will be teams interested in Cuddyer, to be sure. A playoff team will look for a right-handed bat with experience and power, and a guy who can play multiple positions. Also, his team-first attitude and leadership skills will be something that a winning team will want.
  6. Denard Span - Span is again having a solid season, and he has been a terrific leadoff hitter in now three of his four big league seasons. Teams could be looking for that for a playoff run. He is still young and has a very fair contract over the next several seasons. Because of that, the Twins would need to get a huge haul to consider trading him.
  7. Matt Capps - First things first, the Twins will NOT get back a prospect anywhere close to what they gave up for Capps, but a strong, veteran reliever who has as much of a track record as Capps has will be wanted by playoff teams. It's hard to imagine that anyone that is in a position to win would want him as their closer, but he can be a very good seventh and eighth inning guy too. He will be a free agent at the end of the season.
  8. Joe Nathan - We will have to see how he comes back from his current Disabled List stint before determining if he is even tradeable. He has an expensive, eight-digit option for 2012 that no one in their right mind would consider picking up, so he would also be a short-term rental for a team trying to acquire him.
  9. Drew Butera - Teams wanted to acquire him from the Twins before this season. As bad as he has been offensively, teams knew he was that bad before the season as well and still wanted him. Could there be a team that would still want him?
  10. Delmon Young & Francisco Liriano - The topic of long term contracts came up with both of these guys last offseason. Thankfully the Twins did not sign either beyond 2011. They each will again be arbitration-eligible in 2012. They both have too much talent to non-tender, however, the Twins should consider trading each of them. One of the things that the Twins considers when thinking about whether or not to give a player a long contract is how they would handle the long-term security. I don't know that either would handle it well. I would consider trading both of these guys, but not for just anything. If you have to bring them back on an arbitration-determined one year contract and play it out as both may have done enough to get at least Type B status.

But 'thinking about 2012' isn't just about making trades and getting rid of players. It can also be about promotions and call ups this year.

  1. Kyle Gibson - Everyone seems to want him to be promoted now, but I have to ask, what would the incentive be? He is going to be a very good pitcher, but he has things he can continue to work on. That is the main reason to keep him in Rochester for another month or two. However, at this point, why would you not consider the financial ramifications of the Super 2 status in coming years when 2011 isn't going to matter.
  2. Carlos Gutierrez - See Gibson. Gutierrez has been very good in the Red Wings bullpen this year, finally getting to spend an entire season pitching in relief. All reports indicate that he does have things to work with in terms of control. He is going to be a terrific big league reliever, but they might as well wait until late June to call him up.
  3. Ben Revere - He has been playing very well for the Red Wings since returning to AAA last week, and that is good. Until there is a job opening that would allow him to play every day (or close to everyday) for the Twins, there is no reason to call him up.
  4. Joe Benson & Chris Parmelee - I don't think there are any who believe either is going to be in the big leagues this year, but I believe that the Twins struggles this year mean that these two talents should remain in Double-A New Britain (where each is hitting .289) at least until late in the season. They need to play every day and they need to play at a level where they will be able to continue to impove and make adjustments.
  5. Tsuyoshi Nishioka - Now that he is not eligible to come off of the 60 Day Disabled List for a few extra days, I believe that the Twins should be more patient with bringing him back to the Twins. I would suggest that following his time with the Extended Spring Training team, he play for Ft. Myers for four or five games. Then move up to Double-A New Britain for four or five games. And finally, send him up to Triple-A Rochester for a week or games. A player on the Disabled List can get 20 days of rehab, and I think that the Twins would be wise to let Nishioka work his way back up slowly and at various levels.

Finally, the Twins and their brass need to use the remainder of the season to see what they have and who will be able to play in 2012.

  1. Jim Hoey - Hoey has dominated in Rochester and really struggled in the big leagues. However, he has some really good stuff and he throws hard. He is not the kind of guy you give up on. Remember just a year ago at this time, Twins fans were ready to quit on Jesse Crain and he became one of the best bullpen arms in baseball. Remember that it was just this spring that no one believed in Glen Perkins and he became a dominant reliever. Hoey can be that good, especially if he gains confidence and success with the split-finger pitch and the slider.
  2. Dusty Hughes, Chuck James, Phil Dumatrait - Chuck James is finally getting his opportunity, and we will see how he reacts and responds. But like Dumatrait, they are veterans signed to minor league contracts. These three are all left-handed and breathing, a good thing.
  3. Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe - The Twins have to figure out what to do with these two players. It appears that Casilla is not an option as a regular at this point (despite being really good over the past five or six games). Plouffe needs to be given more time to see what he can do and be as a shortstop or as a utility guy. Tsuyoshi Nishioka will return and he will need to get some time at shortstop and second base along with these guys. The goal needs to be figure out where Nishioka will play and whether Plouffe can be considered as an option for 2012 and beyond. If not, then free agency is the only way to acquire a starter.
  4. Luke Hughes - The Twins need to determine if he can be a solid bench option for the team. Can he be a right-handed DH, bat off the bench, or even a utility player, able to play 3B, 2B, 1B or even the corner outfield spots.

The bullpen and the middle infield have been the two biggest areas of frustration this season, so those are the two areas that the Twins need to find out exactly what they have over the remainder of the season.

The Twins and their fans appear to be in for a long season, but if we can all see a plan in place looking toward competing again in 2012, it at least gives some reason for optimism. Blowing up the roster to 'start over' means that the time before they will be competitive again will be years. Things will be tough enough because Cleveland has some young talent and Kansas City's prospects are starting to make their way to the big league roster. Chicago and Detroit can each spend enough to stay cmopetitive.

That's why I believe that the Twins need to do everything with the idea of competing in 2012.

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