YOUR GUIDE TO THE TWIN CITIES
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Joe Christensen, the Star Tribune's national baseball reporter, has covered the big leagues since 1998. A Faribault native, he graduated from the University of Minnesota in 1996. Before working for the Star Tribune, he spent three years covering the Orioles for the Baltimore Sun. He also covered the Padres and Dodgers for newspapers in Southern California. He'll share his thoughts here on the Twins and all things baseball.
Monday update: If the playoffs started today...
Posted by: Joe Christensen under Twins game coverage Updated: August 16, 2010 - 11:21 AM
For my Sunday baseball column, I wrote about BaseballProspectus.com's daily Postseason Odds report, which then gave the Twins a 70 percent chance of winning the AL Central, compared to 30 percent for the White Sox.
This computer simulation, which factors in such things as run differential and strength of schedule, now lists the Twins as 5-to-1 favorites (83.5 percent compared to 16.3 percent) to win the division. Of course, those numbers could go the other direction in a hurry this week, if the Twins get overconfident against Chicago at Target Field.
But even if you are convinced the Twins are heading toward their sixth division title in nine seasons, there's another important race to follow: The race for postseason positioning.
If the postseason started today, it would still be Yankees vs. Twins and Rays vs. Rangers.
No Twins fan wants to see them face the Yankees in the first round again, but it comes down to best record, and the wild card winner can't play the team from its own division. The Twins are gaining in that race, too, and at this rate, they might even challenge for the AL's best record, which would mean home field advantage (Target Field advantage) for the first two rounds.
1. Yankees 72-45 (.615) ----
2. Rays 71-46 (.607) 1 Game Back
3. Rangers 67-49 (.578) 4.5 GB (Corrected)
4. Twins 68-50 (.576) 4.5 GB (Corrected)
So there's another reason to pay attention tonight, when Texas sends Cliff Lee to the mound at Tropicana Field, opposite David Price.
Note: Also tonight, at Mancini's Char House in St. Paul, they'll be celebrating the release of the new edition of Gordy Jones' children's book, "The Baseball Guy." It runs from 4-7 p.m., with scheduled appearances by Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer's father, Jake.
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