Pondering Joe Nathan's value

Last update: October 14, 2009 - 7:38 AM

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Patrick Reusse kicked up a spirited debate by suggesting, among other things, the Twins should trade closer Joe Nathan. Thousands of voters on a Startribune.com poll landed pretty close to a 50/50 split on whether it was a good idea. A sampling of common reactions left by commenters: "Are you crazy? Ship out Nathan and then replace him with a combo of Jose Mijares and Pat Neshek? Yeah, that will show Mauer we're serious about winning." The other side: "Even though Nathan had an outstanding year and we should be grateful, it seemed that he struggled the last month of the season. ... Unfortunately he may be losing his velocity and for a closer that's a disaster."

Here's a little more of our own food for thought on a question that has no easy answer (and really might be moot anyway if the Twins don't see it as a question, but that's the beauty of sports banter):

• In the regular season, Nathan has 246 saves in six seasons with the Twins -- 41 per year. He's never posted an ERA above 2.70, and he has four years below 2.00. He's been dominant and reliable. What more could you ask for in a closer?

• Nathan is owed $22.5 million over the final two years of his contract. While there is no replacement for the feeling you get from having a closer that is close to automatic, there is a school of thought that says closers are overrated and that most good relievers with a couple of out pitches and the right mind-set can be closers. Nathan had one career save and one pretty good year as a set-up man before he arrived from San Francisco. Not every story turns out like his, of course, but there might be a younger, cheaper version of Nathan out there.

• The Twins have other players we assume they'd love to unload, but the fan dream scenario of "let's trade our three least favorite players for the best player on that team" is unrealistic. This is a team with glaring holes. As great as the 17-4 finish was, it was fueled by short-term aberrations more than production that will be replicated in the long-term. The Twins should never trade Nathan in some sort of salary dump. But his value could be an intriguing piece to a possible trade for a front-of-the-rotation pitcher or a bona fide slugger on the left side of the infield.

• Clearly, a move like that would be risk-reward, and part of the equation is asking whether GM Bill Smith can make the right deal. It would create a giant question mark at a spot that has been well-covered since Nathan took over, and there is no obvious heir apparent. If the right deal never comes along, you happily head to spring training with Nathan as your closer. But if the right deal comes along -- say the Cubs make an offer or the Phillies are undone in the NLCS by a Brad Lidge implosion and knock the Twins' socks off with an offer -- it could be worth pursuing.

MICHAEL RAND

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