Don’t count on any big changes for Twins

Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson sang Carl Pavano's praises after Sunday's season-ending 4-1 loss to the Yankees in Game 3 of the American League Division Series.

"He's a great pickup," Anderson said. "Hopefully he's back here next year."

Pavano is one of the main offseason question marks, being one of five pending free agents the Twins could lose before opening Target Field next April. The list also includes Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Ron Mahay and Mike Redmond.

The Twins entered their offseason Monday facing new questions, as fans on various message boards began scribbling wish lists. A sampling:

1) Sign Joe Mauer to a lifetime extension; 2) sign Angels pitcher John Lackey and third baseman Chone Figgins, both free agents; 3) trade Carlos Gomez and a pitching prospect to the Brewers for former All-Star shortstop J.J. Hardy.

The Twins' 31-14 regular season finish stirred interest and the three-and-out postseason against the Yankees left fans demanding more, especially heading into a new ballpark.

But it's time for a reality check. First, take inventory of what the Twins have and what it all costs.

It's easy to forget how different the roster will look next spring as players return from the disabled list. A healthy Justin Morneau sure changes the lineup. And the rotation looks better with Kevin Slowey, who was 10-2 with a 4.04 ERA two starts before undergoing season-ending wrist surgery in July.

Don't forget about Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser, who both played big roles as rookies on the Twins' 2006 division champions. After recovering from arm surgery, each will be fighting for jobs in a crowded and increasingly expensive bullpen.

Looking at 2010 projected salaries, the bullpen figures are eye-popping. Imagine this team spending $21 million just on relief. Joe Nathan will make $11.25 million again, and his setup crew is getting more expensive.

Jon Rauch is under contract for $2.9 million, while Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain could command about $3 million apiece through arbitration. That's one reason Crain is among the team's nontender candidates. The tender deadline is Dec. 12.

The Twins 2010 payroll will easily surpass this year's $72 million, but that doesn't mean they have room to spend freely.

As usual, the Twins aren't disclosing their 2010 payroll budget, and while there have been indications it could grow to the $85-$90 million range, a chunk of that increase is already spoken for.

The Twins have eight players under contract for next season at $62.15 million. Morneau's salary jumps by $3.6 million from this season to next. Other notable increases include Scott Baker ($2.25 million), Mauer ($2 million), Michael Cuddyer ($1.75 million) and Jason Kubel ($1.6 million).

Even as revenues increase at Target Field, the price of keeping this nucleus together will go up, too. So tough decisions must be made.

One of the Twins' first offseason moves likely will be picking up Cuddyer's $10.5 million option for 2011. They have until five days after this year's World Series to do so, and Cuddyer certainly looks deserving.

But the Twins have to consider how Cuddyer's 2011 salary will fit with the combined $26 million they will pay Nathan and Morneau -- not to mention Mauer, whose next deal could pay him about $20 million annually.

The payroll will have to expand quickly to keep them all together, especially as younger players such as Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Denard Span enter their arbitration years.

Mauer isn't a free agent until after 2010, but the Twins sound committed to extending his deal this offseason. It's a no-brainer, but the deal has to be structured wisely so the team can surround Mauer with enough talent to remain competitive.

Fans get wide-eyed at this time each year, imagining all the help their teams could get from the outside. Yet the Twins' biggest questions are internal, such as third baseman Danny Valencia. He was their top position prospect at Class AAA, but will he be ready to handle the hot corner for the Twins next season? The Twins could use Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris to keep the position warm until Valencia is ready.

It would be a surprise if the Twins took another flier on Crede at third, given his injury history and their in-house alternatives. But re-signing Pavano and/or Cabrera might make sense, if it's another depressed market and they return at discount rates. One splurge the Twins could make is to sign veteran lefthander Jarrod Washburn.

The premium free agents, such as Lackey, Figgins and Matt Holliday, quickly will price themselves out of the Twins' budget -- both short-term and long-term -- so look for the Twins to hunt for bargains again, while focusing on their homegrown talent.

This approach might not stir excitement during the winter meetings, but it has landed the Twins in the postseason five of the past eight years. This team just needs to get over the first-round hump.

The Twins hope to land top-shelf talent in the draft (see first-rounder Kyle Gibson's $1.9 million signing this year) and international market (see Miguel Angel Sano's recent $3.1 million deal), rather than overspending on free agents.

This should help them keep Mauer and stay competitive through the honeymoon phase at Target Field.

Joe Christensen • jchristensen@startribune.com