Joe Christensen's Sunday Insider: An aberration, or a return to days gone by?

Commissioner Bud Selig calls it an aberration, and the Twins hope he's right, but the teams spending the most are winning the most this season.

According to USA Today's latest payroll calculations, seven of the nine highest-paid teams would make the postseason if it started today.

That was a recurring story line in the late 1990s, but earlier this decade, successful low-budget teams such as the Twins and Athletics helped change the dynamic.

In 2007, the Indians (with baseball's 23rd highest payroll), Rockies (25th) and Diamondbacks (26th) all reached the second round of the postseason. Last year, the three teams with the highest payrolls -- the Yankees, Tigers and Mets -- missed the playoffs, and the Rays (29th) made the World Series.

Now, big spenders are dominating again, and in a troubled economy, the gap between rich and poor teams widens. Slumping attendance helped spur the Indians, Rays and Padres to unload key members of recent playoff teams.

"Am I discouraged from a competitive balance or parity standpoint? No, not in the least," Selig said in a telephone interview this week. "I believe that the competitive balance we've had the last four or five years is a more accurate reflection of where we are."

The Twins hope so. As they prepare to open Target Field next season, they are facing the biggest payroll decision in franchise history -- how much to offer Joe Mauer. Just when the Twins appear ready to take their payroll to new levels, the question is, will it be enough?

"I don't know that there's a small- or mid-market team out there that doesn't have a constant concern about baseball's economics," Twins President Dave St. Peter said. "That being said, nobody with the Twins will ever use that as an excuse. It is our belief that we can compete and will continue to compete at a high level."

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When the Twins still had Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, in 2007, their Opening Day payroll was a franchise record $71 million. With those two stars gone, and the team much younger, the payroll dipped to $57 million last season. This year, it started at $65 million, ranking 24th in the majors.

It was the smallest Opening Day payroll in the AL Central and dwarfed by the first-place Tigers ($115 million).

Opening Day payrolls tell part of the story, but USA Today recently calculated the average salary per player on each team's roster as of Sept. 1, factoring in all the midseason moves.

The White Sox acquired Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. The Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff. No team was more active than the Cardinals, who added Julio Lugo, Mark DeRosa, Matt Holliday and John Smoltz.

Meanwhile, the Indians conducted a fire sale, trading away Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and five others. In another sign of the times, the Rays traded franchise cornerstone Scott Kazmir to the Angels.

With baseball's overall attendance down almost 7 percent, Target Field has given the Twins a recession buffer. Though the Twins have been mediocre, their fans keep coming, if only to maintain priority seating for the new ballpark.

Entering Friday, the Twins ranked fifth in the American League in average attendance, with 28,781 per game. Since no AL Central team ran away in the standings, the Twins added talent for a change, acquiring shortstop Orlando Cabrera and pitchers Carl Pavano, Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay. Counting the $2.6 million the Twins are paying Mike Lamb (despite releasing him last year), their final payroll will be about $72 million.

Without naming names, St. Peter noted that the Twins pursued other players that would have bumped the payroll even more. They made unsuccessful waiver claims for pitchers Brad Penny and Rich Harden, among others.

"Frankly, I think [CEO] Jim Pohlad would have liked to see us do more," St. Peter said. "The reality of it is deals are easier to talk about than execute, and Jim understands that as well."

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St. Peter said the Twins will soon set their 2010 payroll budget, though they never publicize that number, so as not to give agents extra leverage. But there have been indications the payroll will climb toward $90 million.

The Twins already have $62 million committed to eight players next season, and they could have nine arbitration cases. St. Peter said the team is on pace to meet next year's goals for season tickets, sponsorship and broadcast revenues.

"That should give us the resources necessary to not only handle the general inflation that will come with our 2010 roster ... but also give [general manager] Bill Smith the flexibility to do some other things to improve this baseball team."

What will that mean for Mauer, a potential free agent after 2010?

Though he was speaking only generally, Smith's words about Target Field's payroll impact sounded encouraging.

"I think Jim Pohlad's been pretty clear that there's a certain percentage of revenue that he expects to be used for player payroll," Smith said. "As revenues go up, player payroll goes up. That's going to help us retain our top players, and it's going to help us acquire new players. It's going to help us in a lot of ways."

Joe Christensen • jchristensen@startribune.com