La Velle E. Neal III's Sunday Insider: An MVP case for Morneau

Despite no protection behind him, the Twins slugger has better overall numbers than Boston's Dustin Pedroia.

By LA VELLE E. NEAL III, Star Tribune

Last update: September 20, 2008 - 10:33 PM

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Boston's Dustin Pedroia has hit out of his mind in the post-Manny Ramirez era. Baltimore's Aubrey Huff is quietly having a great season. The Angels' Francisco Rodriguez is finishing up a record-breaking year.

But when the votes for the American League Most Valuable Player are finally tabulated, the Twins' Justin Morneau should finish in the top three -- and perhaps win his second MVP award in three seasons.

I've watched Morneau be an RBI machine in a season during which there's been a revolving door of No. 5 hitters behind him. His AL-leading 16 intentional walks attest to that.

His candidacy, however, is based on much more than that.

He won't finish with at least 30 homers for the first time since 2005. But he entered the weekend with just as many extra-base hits, 72, as he did in his MVP season, 2006.

He's sixth in the AL in on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS) and eighth in slugging percentage. He leads the majors with 24 doubles since the All-Star break, two more than Pedroia.

There will be a big push for Pedroia to be the MVP. He's having a fantastic year for a second baseman, batting .348 since the All-Star break and hitting 17 homers during the season. And he beats Morneau soundly with a .379 batting average in close and late situations. Morneau bats .293 in that category.

But where would the Red Sox be without Kevin Youkilis? In a year during which David Ortiz has been hampered by a wrist injury and Manny Ramirez was been traded to the Dodgers, Youkilis is batting .310 with 26 homers and 106 RBI. He has been a rock in the middle of that lineup.

Where would the Twins be without Morneau, who's batting .311 with 23 homers, 128 RBI and 45 doubles? There a stat called win shares, based on a complicated formula that takes in everything a player does to help his team win. Morneau entered the weekend leading the AL with 28. Joe Mauer was third. Youkilis was seventh and Pedroia 14th.

Morneau is third in the league with a .373 batting average with runners in scoring position. He's batting .360 with runners in scoring position and two out -- sixth best in the league.

In addition to the players mentioned above, Chicago's Carlos Quentin should get plenty of votes for his stunning season. Josh Hamilton, who finally has beaten the demons of addiction, has had a big year. Mauer, with a shot at a second batting title in three seasons, could finish in the top 10. And those who remember Dennis Eckersley in 1992 and Willie Hernandez in 1984 will fight for K-Rod, now the single-season saves leader.

But it would not be surprising to see Morneau, who shows up among the league leaders in several offensive categories and is by far the main run producer on a winning team, win the award -- especially if he can nudge the Twins into the postseason.

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