TwinsCentric was formed by Twins super-bloggers Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, Parker Hageman and John Bonnes. Together they publish at TwinsDaily.com and have authored books, e-books and magazines that provide independent and in-depth coverage of the Minnesota Twins from a fan's perspective. You can contact them at TwinsCentric@gmail.com.

Read more about them.

TwinsCentric: On Paradigms and Kevin Correia

Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: December 11, 2012 - 12:06 PM

 

 

The easy reaction to the news that the Minnesota Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms.

A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom.


A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere.

Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either.

Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest.

That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm.

The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis.

So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million.

Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL.

I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline.

And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal.

I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified.

But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

~~~

Twins Daily has been killing it lately.

 

7:05 PM ET123456789RHE
MinnesotaK. Gibson (11-10)000
BaltimoreC. Tillman (11-5)000
@theBallpark
Preview | Matchup | Lineup | Log | Wrap | Box

ADVERTISEMENT

NY Yankees - LP: M. Pineda 0 FINAL
Toronto - WP: D. Hutchison 2
Detroit - LP: M. Scherzer 3 FINAL
Chicago WSox - WP: C. Sale 6
Chicago Cubs - WP: F. Doubront 5 FINAL
St. Louis - LP: J. Masterson 1
Cincinnati 1 Bottom 6th Inning
Pittsburgh 3
Minnesota - K. Gibson 6:05 PM
Baltimore - C. Tillman
Philadelphia - J. Williams 6:10 PM
NY Mets - B. Colon
Miami - J. Cosart 6:10 PM
Atlanta - A. Harang
Boston - A. Webster 6:10 PM
Tampa Bay - J. Odorizzi
Cleveland - T. Bauer 6:10 PM
Kansas City - J. Shields
Detroit - K. Ryan 6:10 PM
Chicago WSox - C. Bassitt
Texas - R. Ross Jr. 6:10 PM
Houston - S. Feldman
Colorado - T. Matzek 7:10 PM
Arizona - V. Nuno
Chicago Cubs - T. Wada 7:15 PM
St. Louis - M. Gonzales
Los Angeles - Z. Greinke 7:40 PM
San Diego - I. Kennedy
Milwaukee - M. Fiers 8:05 PM
San Francisco - J. Peavy
Oakland - J. Samardzija 8:05 PM
LA Angels - C. Rasmus
Washington - S. Strasburg 8:10 PM
Seattle - R. Elias
Green Bay 9/4/14 7:30 PM
Seattle
BYU 35 FINAL
Connecticut 10
(6) Jacksonville St 7 FINAL
(8) Michigan State 45
Bowling Green 31 FINAL
Western Ky 59
TX-San Antonio 27 FINAL
Houston 7
Colorado State 31 FINAL
Colorado 17
UNLV 13 FINAL
Arizona 58
Penn State 26 FINAL
UCF 24
Troy 10 FINAL
UAB 48
(7) UCLA 28 FINAL
Virginia 20
Western Mich 34 FINAL
Purdue 43
(5) Ohio State 34 FINAL
Navy 17
Appalachian St 14 FINAL
Michigan 52
Ga Southern 23 FINAL
NC State 24
Boston College 27 4th Qtr 11:48
Massachusetts 7
West Virginia 17 3rd Qtr 14:42
(2) Alabama 20
Rice 10 3rd Qtr 14:50
(17) Notre Dame 28
(10) South Dakota St 18 3rd Qtr 10:12
(24) Missouri 27
Fla Atlantic 7 3rd Qtr
(22) Nebraska 31
California 31 3rd Qtr 9:05
Northwestern 7
Marshall 28 3rd Qtr 13:59
Miami-Ohio 3
UC Davis 0 3rd Qtr
(11) Stanford 38
Arkansas 21 3rd Qtr
(6) Auburn 21
(16) Clemson 0 1st Qtr 14:51
(12) Georgia 0
Liberty 5:00 PM
(23) North Carolina
Ohio U 5:00 PM
Kent State
Louisiana Tech 6:00 PM
(4) Oklahoma
Idaho 6:00 PM
Florida
Stephen F Austin 6:10 PM
(20) Kansas State
Fresno State 6:30 PM
(15) USC
Southern Miss 6:30 PM
Miss State
Texas-El Paso 7:00 PM
New Mexico
North Texas 7:00 PM
Texas
(1) Florida State 7:00 PM
Oklahoma State
(14) Wisconsin 8:00 PM
(13) LSU
South Dakota 9:30 PM
(3) Oregon
(25) Washington 9:30 PM
Hawaii
Utah State 8/31/14 6:00 PM
Tennessee
SMU 8/31/14 6:30 PM
(10) Baylor
Miami-Florida 9/1/14 7:00 PM
Louisville
Arizona 9/4/14 7:00 PM
TX-San Antonio
Pittsburgh 9/5/14 6:00 PM
Boston College
Washington St 9/5/14 9:30 PM
Nevada
SMU 9/6/14 11:00 AM
North Texas
Fla Atlantic 9/6/14 11:00 AM
(2) Alabama
Buffalo 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Army
(24) Missouri 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Toledo
Arkansas State 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Tennessee
(8) McNeese State 9/6/14 11:00 AM
(22) Nebraska
Central Mich 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Purdue
Akron 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Penn State
Western Ill 9/6/14 11:00 AM
(14) Wisconsin
(20) Kansas State 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Iowa State
(4) Oklahoma 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Tulsa
Western Ky 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Illinois
SC State 9/6/14 11:30 AM
(16) Clemson
Navy 9/6/14 12:00 PM
Temple
UAB 9/6/14 1:00 PM
Miss State
South Alabama 9/6/14 1:00 PM
Kent State
New Mexico St 9/6/14 1:00 PM
Georgia State
Colorado 9/6/14 2:00 PM
Massachusetts
Fresno State 9/6/14 2:00 PM
Utah
(1) Eastern Wash 9/6/14 2:00 PM
(25) Washington
(15) USC 9/6/14 2:30 PM
(11) Stanford
Ohio U 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Kentucky
Middle Tennessee 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Minnesota
Northern Ill 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Northwestern
Missouri State 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Oklahoma State
Ball State 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Iowa
Maryland 9/6/14 2:30 PM
So Florida
Eastern Mich 9/6/14 3:00 PM
Florida
Georgia Tech 9/6/14 3:00 PM
Tulane
(18) Ole Miss 9/6/14 3:30 PM
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion 9/6/14 5:00 PM
NC State
(8) Michigan State 9/6/14 5:30 PM
(3) Oregon
(19) Arizona State 9/6/14 6:00 PM
New Mexico
Louisiana Tech 9/6/14 6:00 PM
Louisiana
San Jose St 9/6/14 6:00 PM
(6) Auburn
East Carolina 9/6/14 6:00 PM
(9) So Carolina
Duke 9/6/14 6:00 PM
Troy
Idaho 9/6/14 6:00 PM
ULM
(17) Sam Houston St 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(13) LSU
Michigan 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(17) Notre Dame
Lamar 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(21) Texas A&M
Northwestern St 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(10) Baylor
BYU 9/6/14 6:30 PM
Texas
Citadel 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(1) Florida State
San Diego St 9/6/14 7:00 PM
(23) North Carolina
Virginia Tech 9/6/14 7:00 PM
(5) Ohio State
Memphis 9/6/14 9:00 PM
(7) UCLA
Colorado State 9/6/14 9:15 PM
Boise State
Air Force 9/6/14 9:15 PM
Wyoming
Oregon State 9/6/14 9:30 PM
Hawaii
Texas Tech 9/6/14 10:00 PM
Texas-El Paso
Colorado 0 2nd Half 20:00
Seattle 1
New England 2 1st Half 20:00
Toronto FC 0
Columbus 6:30 PM
Montreal
FC Dallas 7:30 PM
Chicago
Real Salt Lake 9:30 PM
San Jose
Portland 9:30 PM
Vancouver FC
Ottawa 10 FINAL
Montreal 20
Winnipeg 8/31/14 3:00 PM
Saskatchewan
Toronto 9/1/14 12:00 PM
Hamilton
Edmonton 9/1/14 3:30 PM
Calgary
Brt Columbia 9/5/14 6:30 PM
Ottawa
Calgary 9/6/14 6:00 PM
Edmonton
Hamilton 9/7/14 12:00 PM
Montreal
Saskatchewan 9/7/14 3:00 PM
Winnipeg
Chicago 6:00 PM
Indiana
Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

question of the day

Poll: How sure are you that the Twins are on the road to improving?

Weekly Question

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT