TwinsCentric was formed by Twins super-bloggers Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, Parker Hageman and John Bonnes. Together they publish at TwinsDaily.com and have authored books, e-books and magazines that provide independent and in-depth coverage of the Minnesota Twins from a fan's perspective. You can contact them at TwinsCentric@gmail.com.

Read more about them.

TwinsCentric: On Paradigms and Kevin Correia

Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: December 11, 2012 - 12:06 PM

 

 

The easy reaction to the news that the Minnesota Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms.

A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom.


A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere.

Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either.

Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest.

That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm.

The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis.

So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million.

Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL.

I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline.

And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal.

I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified.

But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.

~~~

Twins Daily has been killing it lately.

 

4:10 PM ET123456789RHE
MinnesotaK. Correia (4-11)000
ColoradoT. Matzek (1-3)000
@theBallpark
Preview | Matchup | Lineup | Log | Wrap | Box

ADVERTISEMENT

Chicago WSox - S. Carroll 2:05 PM
Cleveland - Z. McAllister
Atlanta - M. Minor 3:05 PM
Chicago Cubs - E. Jackson
NY Yankees - S. Greene 3:05 PM
Baltimore - C. Tillman
Arizona - W. Miley 3:05 PM
San Francisco - R. Vogelsong
St. Louis - A. Wainwright 3:10 PM
Milwaukee - J. Nelson
Miami - T. Koehler 3:10 PM
NY Mets - D. Matsuzaka
Boston - J. Peavy 3:10 PM
Houston - B. Oberholtzer
Minnesota - K. Correia 3:10 PM
Colorado - T. Matzek
Toronto - D. Hutchison 3:10 PM
Tampa Bay - J. Odorizzi
Detroit - R. Porcello 6:10 PM
Kansas City - J. Shields
Washington - S. Strasburg 6:15 PM
Philadelphia - C. Hamels
Pittsburgh - C. Morton 6:15 PM
Cincinnati - M. Leake
LA Angels - J. Weaver 6:15 PM
Texas - M. Mikolas
San Diego - I. Kennedy 9:10 PM
Los Angeles - P. Maholm
Oakland - J. Chavez 9:10 PM
Seattle - H. Iwakuma
Colorado 6:00 PM
Philadelphia
Houston 6:00 PM
Toronto FC
Columbus 6:00 PM
Red Bull New York
Chicago 6:30 PM
New England
Sporting Kansas City 6:30 PM
Montreal
Chivas USA 9:00 PM
Vancouver FC
Real Salt Lake 9:30 PM
Los Angeles
Winnipeg 34 FINAL
Montreal 33
Ottawa 11 FINAL
Edmonton 27
Calgary 5:30 PM
Toronto
Brt Columbia 8:30 PM
Saskatchewan
Edmonton 7/17/14 7:30 PM
Winnipeg
Toronto 7/18/14 6:00 PM
Ottawa
Hamilton 7/18/14 9:00 PM
Calgary
Montreal 7/19/14 6:00 PM
Brt Columbia
Atlanta 6:00 PM
Indiana
Washington 7:00 PM
Tulsa
Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

question of the day

Poll: What are you most looking forward to during All-Star festivities?

Weekly Question

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT