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Jim Souhan: Not ready to make the leap

Charles Krupa, Associated Press

Even if their relievers manage to clear tall barriers in a single bound this season the way Juan Rincon cleared the bullpen wall in spring training, the Twins likely will have trouble this season.

2008 TWINS PREVIEW Fielding a competitive team just won't get you where it used to in the American League Central.

By JIM SOUHAN, Star Tribune

Last update: March 29, 2008 - 4:33 PM

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2008 TWINS SEASON PREVIEW THE RANKING GAME

BEST OF THE CENTRAL: Where do the Twins fit into the new-look AL Central?

JIM SOUHAN: The Twins will find it tough to even reach a third-place finish.

LINEUPS: Which team packs the most punch at the plate?

PITCHING: The Indians are loaded with talent on the mound.

MANAGERS: Where does Gardy rank?

FRONT OFFICES: Bill Smith embarks on his first season as Twins GM.

DOWN ON THE FARM: Do the Twins still own the top prospects?

BASEBALL TOWN: Patrick Reusse weighs in on Central cities.

AMERICAN LEAGUE: Even the champs have some new faces.

NATIONAL LEAGUE: The Mets are holding an ace.

THE TWINS: Five questions and more.

More from Twins

FORT MYERS, FLA. — The 2002 Twins won the American League Central with Doug Mientkiewicz batting third.

The 2003 Twins played poorly for half a season before the trade for Shannon Stewart and the insertion of Johan Santana into the rotation propelled them to a second consecutive division title.

The 2004 Twins lost A.J. Pierzynski, Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins, remade the bullpen and still won the division.

The 2006 Twins played terribly for two months before staging The Miracle on Puckett Place and winning their fourth division title in five years.

The 2008 Twins are unlikely to be afforded any of the luxuries of their division-winning predecessors. In 2002, 2003 and 2004, the Twins needed only to play close to their capabilities to win a title. In 2006, the Tigers collapsed down the stretch and allowed the Twins to pass them.

Such charity is unlikely this season. The American League Central has become deep and talented enough that the Twins could exceed expectations and finish no higher than third.

Or fourth.

They will not be able to tread water for two or three months and still rally to win. They will not be able to coast against weak competition and rely on dominating their division rivals to pump up their record.

With the imbalanced schedule dictating that almost half of their games will be played in the division, surviving intradivision play will become the goal.

Detroit will field the best lineup in the division, if not baseball. Acquiring Miguel Cabrera is the kind of bold move that sets Detroit's ownership and front office apart from the others in the division.

Cleveland will field the best rotation, thanks largely to dual aces C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, and Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez all are capable of finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting.

Chicago looks like a franchise in a free fall, but its lineup still looks intimidating. And while it would be easy -- again -- to predict a gloomy season for Kansas City, the Royals do bear some resemblance to the turn-of-the-decade Twins teams that built a winner with a lot of good young players.

The Twins have one advantage over their divisional competitors. As long as they have Joe Nathan, they will have the best and deepest bullpen in the AL Central. That advantage would have disappeared had the Twins traded Nathan, but they did the smart thing in signing him to a four-year contract last week.

The 2007 Twins employed Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva and won 79 games. They have replaced that power trio with Delmon Young (who could negate the loss of Hunter's bat but not glove), Livan Hernandez (who can't carry Santana's beard trimmer) and a returning Francisco Liriano (who can't be counted on in any way this season and may never return to his previously dominant form).

The middle of the Twins lineup should be productive -- but not as productive as Detroit's or perhaps Cleveland's or Chicago's. The bullpen should remain excellent now that Nathan is locked up, and the fielding could be above average, although only Adam Everett and Joe Mauer are exceptional at their positions.

And the Twins could present their worst rotation since we last saw Sean Bergman.

If you look at the big picture, the division has gotten increasingly stronger this decade while the Twins have, with the exception of four months in 2006, gotten worse.

Finishing third in 2008 would be an achievement on par with winning the division title earlier this decade.

Jim Souhan can be heard Sundays from 10 a.m.-noon on AM-1500 KSTP. • jsouhan@startribune.com

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