The Santana trade: Lacking leverage, and timing

Johan Santana ... two-time Cy Young Award winner ... baseball's best pitcher and only 28 years old ... traded for four prospects?

The reality of this week's trade of Santana to the Mets has led to national media ridicule of the Twins -- one East Coast writer called the team incompetent -- and outrage from sports fans in the Upper Midwest.

Should the Twins be blamed for being too patient? Or was it unrealistic to expect a blockbuster deal because of the accompanying factors that included Santana's desire for a trade, his complete no-trade clause and the magnitude of his contract?

The Star Tribune spoke with numerous baseball sources -- front-office personnel, scouts and agents -- who painted a portrait of a complex and everchanging trading landscape that challenged first-year Twins General Manager Bill Smith's expertise. Most of those interviewed requested anonymity because they were not authorized by their teams to comment publicly.

The common theme that emerged from those inside baseball is that Smith did the best he could with the little leverage he had. In the final four weeks before the deal, the Mets were the only team seriously trying to complete a trade after the Yankees and Red Sox virtually dropped out. Seattle and Texas had early interest, but Santana would not consider a trade to those teams.

"Obviously, Johan had incredible leverage as it related to the no-trade clause," Twins President Dave St. Peter said. "He earned that no-trade, but as far as the Twins, that certainly narrows the ability to speak to some teams that expressed interest that Johan ruled out.

"Secondly, I'd say the reality everybody knew that Johan and his representatives were positioned to command a record-breaking contract. That absolutely had a tremendous impact as to what was available to the Twins in these discussions."

The Twins shot for the stars early on in negotiations, hoping top prospects such as Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury could be packaged by Boston; that prized pitching prospects Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, plus starting center fielder Melky Cabrera, would anchor a dazzling four-player package from the Yankees; and that the Mets would include electrifying shortstop Jose Reyes.

The best-case scenario for the Twins was a bidding war in which at least one of the teams would meet the Twins' asking price. But the bidding war never materialized.

The Mets made it clear they would not part with Reyes before the December winter meetings and never budged from that position. Yankees officials debated internally whether to pursue a deal, and ultimately decided to hang on to young pitching prospects Hughes and Kennedy. The Red Sox, baseball's 2007 champions, were wary of depleting their farm system when they already have the best team in baseball.

A brief window

Criticism that Smith was too patient and overplayed his hand can justifiably be directed at a 36-hour span during baseball's winter meetings.

The Twins started the winter meetings asking the Yankees for Hughes, one of baseball's elite starting prospects, Kennedy, Cabrera and pitcher Jeff Marquez. The Yankees said no, offering Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez and a fourth player.

Yankees "alpha personality" Hank Steinbrenner, son of owner George Steinbrenner, made it clear at the start of the meetings that he didn't want to get into a bidding war with the Red Sox. He gave the Twins a Dec. 3 deadline to accept the Yankees offer.

"We need to get this done. If we don't, I certainly won't be upset about keeping Hughes and Cabrera," he told the New York Times on Dec. 2. "I definitely won't. I don't think Minnesota wants to be stuck negotiating with just one team."

The Twins backed off of Kennedy and asked for infielder Mitchell Hilligoss instead. One problem: By the time the Twins countered, the Yankees had a Dec. 3 commitment that veteran free-agent lefthander Andy Pettitte would return.

Internally the Yankees were divided. GM Brian Cashman never wanted to include Hughes. Once Pettitte was back in the fold, Hughes was off the table for good.

Rumors about a potential trade with the Red Sox at the winter meetings started flying when Boston provided the Twins with medical reports of potential trade candidates. It's a common practice that frequently happens when a deal is near completion.

There were two trades under discussion with the Red Sox. One consisted of lefthander Lester, outfielder Coco Crisp and righthander Justin Masterson. The other consisted of Ellsbury, infielder Jed Lowrie, Masterson and a fourth player. The Twins wanted that fourth player to be a top prospect, but the Red Sox balked.

Red Sox officials talked excitedly among themselves at the winter meetings about landing Santana. During one meeting in the team's suite, a Red Sox official took out a silver marker and wrote "Santana = Dynasty" on an apple and placed it on a table for his counterparts to see.

Boston genuinely wanted Santana -- but didn't need him. The defending World Series champions, after all, already boasted a strong rotation featuring Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling and promising youngsters such as Lester and Clay Buchholz.

Boston never felt motivated to increase its offers. The Yankees showed uncharacteristic restraint.

"They told us several times during discussions that they wanted to be like the Twins and hold on to their own players," St. Peter said.

The bidding war never developed.

For two stunning months, the bitter AL East rivals tabled their historical game of one-upmanship.

Asking price drops

By the end of December, the Twins adjusted their demands. They became open to the notion of a deal with the Mets without getting Reyes in return.

The Mets had first put together an offer of prospects in late November, when the Twins were still holding out for Reyes. But by late December, the offer of outfielder Carlos Gomez and righthanders Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra began to gain steam.

Gomez, considered an outstanding prospect with tremendous speed, and Guerra, an 18-year old who held his own in high Class A ball last season, have the most upside. Humber was the third overall pick in 2004 but had Tommy John surgery in 2005. Mulvey could develop into a No. 3 starter.

The Twins wanted the Mets to add outfielder Fernando Martinez, the club's top minor league prospect, but the Mets declined. The Mets gave the Twins a choice between Guerra and another A-ball pitcher, lefthander Jonathon Niese. The Twins chose Guerra, who like Santana is a native Venezuelan.

The Twins continued to say that they were willing to bring Santana to spring training and even start the season with him. But internally, the Twins expressed differing opinions. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire went to team officials in January and said he was concerned about a repeat of the distractions of a year ago during Torii Hunter's final contract season.

"It's something we spent a lot of time talking about," St. Peter said. "I don't think it was anyone's first choice. There were concerns about distractions. It was on the manager's mind. We felt [a trade] would be the best move for the club and the player."

The leverage belonged mostly to Santana. The pitcher's agent, Peter Greenberg, reminded reporters throughout the offseason that they could choose to play out the 2008 season, never waive the no-trade clause in his contract and then explore the free-agent market after the season. The Twins would get only two draft picks as compensation if that happened.

Over the final two weeks, the climate only worsened.

Hughes was out. Lester was out. And the Red Sox had replaced Masterson and Lowrie with unappealing prospects in the Ellsbury package.

The Twins kept a poker face, maintaining the talks were ongoing with all three teams and that anything could still happen. Maybe they even believed it. But all signs started pointing to only one team -- the Mets.

"The Red Sox and Yankees were pretty passive over the last couple of months," St. Peter said.

The Mets briefly considered adding to their package of players -- possibly even including Martinez. But Mets officials gambled that they were the only team left standing and stood pat with their four-prospect offer.

Santana grew weary, wanting to put the uncertainty behind him. Greenberg finally informed the Twins before the start of TwinsFest on Jan. 25 that they needed to have a deal done by Jan. 29, or Santana would decline to waive his no-trade clause for the entire season.

By Jan. 25, the Twins were out of leverage. When they announced that day that they had agreed to terms with Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer on long-term deals, they were quietly telling the Red Sox, Mets and Yankees that it was time for their final, best offers.

On Jan. 29, Smith spoke with the Yankees in a last-ditch effort to get them involved, and asked for Chien-Ming Wang, Kennedy, Marquez and Cabrera. Wang, the runner-up to Santana for the 2006 AL Cy Young, had been among players the Yankees had been willing to discuss early in the process. This time, the Yankees weren't interested.

The Red Sox had pulled back so far that talks could not be rekindled.

Smith was left with one option -- the Mets package -- unless the Twins brought Santana to spring training, an option most team officials didn't favor.

"Our only hope going in was that we might be able to help our major league club a little more right now," Smith said. "As we put together the available packages. The best package was going to have some younger prospects."

To hear baseball people tell it, the Twins finally accepted a ''scouts' deal" -- based on their evaluation of the young Mets prospects. The Twins have a history of doing well in those types of deals.

Nearly 10 years ago they were ridiculed for dealing Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees for four prospects, Two of those prospects -- Cristian Guzman and Eric Milton -- became All-Stars and helped the Twins become contenders.

"We have four very good young players," St. Peter said. "We had the benefit of having Johan Santana pitch for us and develop into a two-time Cy Young and help lead us to the playoffs.

"History will hopefully tell us that this was a trade that worked out for everyone."

Staff writer Joe Christensen contributed to this report.