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Yankees ... Red Sox ... or maybe the Mets

The less talked-about team from New York might be a better match for the Twins in Johan Santana trade talks.

Last update: January 10, 2008 - 12:00 AM

After weeks of speculation that the Yankees and Red Sox were the two favorites to land Johan Santana, the Twins could wind up shipping him to the Mets.

Ultimately, the Mets might be the best fit.

They have the greatest need. They have the money to sign Santana. And they play in the National League, where he's less likely to haunt the Twins.

The players the Mets would send the Twins aren't household names. There's no Jose Reyes or David Wright. The offers aren't perfect.

But it's become abundantly clear the Twins won't be able to make the perfect trade here. Not for a two-time Cy Young winner. Not for a lefthander who is 93-44 for his career and won't turn 29 until March.

No team is going to give the Twins everything they need when that team must turn around and hand Santana a five- or six-year contract extension worth at least $20 million per year.

According to people with knowledge of the discussions, the Mets have offered top pitching prospect Deolis Guerra, along with center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

The Twins like those players. They've told the Mets they'd have a done deal if New York would add prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez.

Even then, it wouldn't be a perfect trade.

It would give the Twins a big stack of potential, with few guarantees. Consider:

• Gomez, 22, could step in as the Twins' everyday center fielder next year. He is faster than Jose Reyes, the All-Star shortstop the Mets have made untouchable. But scouts say Gomez also has trouble hitting a slider. In four minor league seasons, he has 250 strikeouts in 1,251 at-bats and a meager .336 on-base percentage.

• Guerra is a 6-5 righthander who signed with the Mets out of Venezuela for $700,000 in 2006. He pitched in the Class A Florida State League last season and posted a 4.01 ERA -- at age 18.

• Martinez was recently named the Mets' top prospect by Baseball America. Guerra was No. 2. While scouts are skeptical about Gomez's ability to hit, they are more confident in Martinez, who climbed to Class AA last year at age 18.

• Mulvey, 22, and Humber, 25, are both considered prospects, though neither currently projects better than a No. 4 starter.

That's a problem.

The Twins already have bid goodbye to Matt Garza and Carlos Silva this offseason. If they subtract Santana, the remaining starters would be Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano, who is coming off elbow surgery.

"There's no question our starting pitching is going to be very young," General Manager Bill Smith said Wednesday. "We've lost two good guys, and we certainly have our eyes open looking for starting pitching."

The Yankees have offered one of the game's top pitching prospects in Phil Hughes. Beyond him, however, the Twins aren't so sure.

They wonder if center fielder Melky Cabrera would struggle when taken out of the Yankees lineup. He'd probably be pitched to differently, which could cause him to struggle.

The Red Sox have offered lefthander Jon Lester and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. But not in the same deal.

The Twins like infield prospect Jed Lowrie, who has been offered in both proposals. Again, these offers would address one need -- adding position prospects or a quality starting pitcher -- not both.

For now, this remains one big staring match. The Twins are waiting for some team to blink. In the end, it just might be the Mets.

Joe Christensen • jchristensen@startribune.com

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