Roman Augustoviz spends Minnesota's winters covering college hockey, specifically the Gophers, and other University of Minnesota sports. During the summer, he writes about the WNBA's Minnesota Lynx, with a dose of U sports sprinkled in. Follow him on Twitter @RomanStrib.

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If NCAA hockey tournament started today, U would be on bubble

Posted by: Roman Augustoviz under Gophers, Men's hockey Updated: December 3, 2012 - 11:59 PM

If the NCAA hockey tournament were starting today -- and let's assume the current first-place teams won their respective postseason conference tournaments -- the Gophers would be the last of the 16 teams in the field.

Or, if anybody but Niagara emerged as the Atlantic Hockey tournament champion or there was a major upset winner in any of the other postseason tournaments, the Gophers would be out.

Never mind that they are No. 4 in the uscho.com national poll this week, or No. 5 in the USA Today poll.

Interesting, eh?

Here is how I've come to these conclusions. As we all know, the PairWise ratings -- based on team comparisons that a computer can do easily -- mimic how the NCAA picks it's at-large teams.

The champions of the five conferences get automatic bids. Then nine at-large teams are named.

So who is in the field?

Well, the current conference leaders are Niagara in Atlantic Hockey, Miami in the CCHA, Quinnipiac in the ECAC, Boston College in Hockey East and Denver in the WCHA. For the purposes of this exercise, let's say they all win their conference tournaments and get automatic bids.

The four tops seeds -- who will be in separate regionals -- according to the current PairWise ratings would all be schools out East:

Top overall seed: Boston College, No. 1 in the PairWise, first in Hockey East (automatic bid, assuming Eagles win conference tournament), defending NCAA champion, coming to Minneapolis for the Mariucci Classic. Coaches by legendary Jerry York, who just tied the record for most victories by a Division I college coach.

Second seed: New Hampshire, No. 2 in PW.

Third seed: Dartmouth, No. 3 in PW. Would be sent to Midwest or West Region

Fourth seed: Yale, No. 4 in PW. Would be sent to Midwest or West Region.

The four No. 2 seeds in the regionals would be: Boston University, Notre Dame, Miami (automatic bid) and Quinnipiac (automatic)

The four No. 3 seeds: Western Michigan, Denver (automatic), Cornell, Union

The four No. 4 seeds: North Dakota, Harvard, Gophers and Niagara (automatic) ... Gophers, No. 15 in PW, would be last at-large team in.

If one team -- or more -- below Niagara in the PW ratings wins a conference tournament, thereby grabbing an automatic spot, then the Gophers would be out of the NCAAs.

Just missing as of today: Ohio State, tied with Niagara for No. 16 in PW, and three WCHA teams -- No. 18 Nebraska Omaha, No. 19. St. Cloud State and No. 20. Colorado College.

Obviously, a lot can change with the PW ratings week to week. And there are still three months left in the regular season and postseason tournaments to play. This is just a snapshot look at how things stand on Dec. 3.

Here is a breakdown by conference of who would be in:

Atlantic Hockey (1): Niagara

CCHA (3): Notre Dame, Miami, Western Michigan.

ECAC (6): Dartmouth, Yale, Quinnipiac, Cornell, Union, Harvard.

Hockey East (3): Boston College, New Hampshire, Boston University

WCHA (3): Denver, North Dakota, Gophers.

Six ECAC teams in the NCAAs! That would be something for that league. Probably won't end with that many. Things will sort out.

The WCHA only has three because everyone is beating everyone in the conference. Take Saturday for example, lowly Wisconsin wins on the road at first place Denver and Alaska Anchorage gets its first conference win over visiting St. Cloud State, tied for second.

The top four teams in strength of schedule, which influences RPI, an important stat in the PW ratings, are: Dartmouth, Boston College, Boston University and Yale. Three of those teams would be No. 1 seeds today.

The Gophers and Nebraska Omaha, two NCAA bubble teams (as of today) who just split with each other, are Nos. 42 and 43, respectively, out of 59 Division I teams.

The Gophers' strength of schedule will take a jump with Colorado College, Air Force, Boston College and Notre Dame coming up in that succession. They sorta eased into this season. Now it gets rough.

YORK ON CUSP OF MARK

Boston College coach Jerry York's march to a milestone hit a speed bump on Friday. The Eagles, who lost their seassn opener to Northeastern 3-1, won 10 in a row until losing at Boston University 4-2.

But on Saturday, BC bounced back to win 5-2 at home. It was the 924th win for York, tying York with retired Ron Mason of Michigan State for most wins all-tiime as a college hockey coach.

York's record is now 924-558-94 in 41 seasons. He will try to break Mason's mark on Friday at Providence.

The Friars are 7-6-1, 5-4-0 in Hockey East, so a road win is not a foregone conclusion.

If BC, 11-2, 10-2, should lose, there next game is not until the Mariucci Classic. So Gophers fans would have a chance to see hockey history. The Eagles play one-win Alabama-Huntsville on the first day of the tournament and the Gophers on the second.

 

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Tennessee 13 FINAL
Jacksonville 21
Philadelphia 12/20/14 3:30 PM
Washington
San Diego 12/20/14 7:25 PM
San Francisco
Minnesota 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Miami
Baltimore 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Houston
Detroit 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Chicago
Cleveland 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Carolina
Atlanta 12/21/14 12:00 PM
New Orleans
Green Bay 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Tampa Bay
Kansas City 12/21/14 12:00 PM
Pittsburgh
New England 12/21/14 12:00 PM
NY Jets
NY Giants 12/21/14 3:05 PM
St. Louis
Buffalo 12/21/14 3:25 PM
Oakland
Indianapolis 12/21/14 3:25 PM
Dallas
Seattle 12/21/14 7:30 PM
Arizona
Denver 12/22/14 7:30 PM
Cincinnati
New York 97 FINAL
Chicago 103
New Orleans 99 FINAL
Houston 90
Milwaukee 57 3rd Qtr
Sacramento 54
Oklahoma City 44 2nd Qtr 10:11
Golden State 38
Florida 2 FINAL(SO)
Philadelphia 1
Colorado 0 FINAL(OT)
Pittsburgh 1
Toronto 1 FINAL
Carolina 4
Washington 5 FINAL(OT)
Columbus 4
Anaheim 2 FINAL
Montreal 1
St. Louis 3 1st Prd :09
Los Angeles 1
Edmonton 1 2nd Prd
San Jose 0
St Thomas (TX) 61 FINAL
Rice 72
Stony Brook 59 FINAL
Canisius 60
Temple 82 FINAL
Delaware 62
FIU 58 FINAL
Long Island 69
Lehigh 65 FINAL
Quinnipiac 80
South Alabama 54 FINAL
Richmond 65
Seton Hall 89 FINAL
South Florida 69
Ga Southern 76 FINAL
Stetson 67
Yale 57 FINAL
Vermont 56
Cleveland State 54 FINAL
Virginia 70
Wright State 69 FINAL
Western Carolina 56
Nicholls 54 FINAL
Louisiana Tech 79
Morgan State 48 FINAL
Rider 62
Idaho State 72 FINAL
South Dakota St 75
Oakland City 52 FINAL
Austin Peay 76
Eureka 38 FINAL
Bradley 80
Appalachian St 65 FINAL
Charlotte 75
Connecticut 56 FINAL
Duke 66
Southern Miss 46 FINAL
Jackson State 66
Coastal Carolina 68 FINAL
Ole Miss 71
Montana State 53 FINAL
South Dakota 55
LSU 79 FINAL
UAB 70
Ohio 69 FINAL
Evansville 81
CS-Dominguez 30 2nd Half 11:21
Cal State Fullerton 41
Walla Walla 18 2nd Half 16:45
Idaho 54
DePaul 33 2nd Half 16:11
Oregon State 56
Nevada 22 2nd Half 15:59
Pacific 39
Portland State 28 2nd Half 11:27
San Francisco 61
CS-Bakersfield 18 2nd Half
Utah State 20
Nevada 12/20/14 10:00 AM
Louisiana
Utah State 12/20/14 1:20 PM
Texas-El Paso
(23) Utah 12/20/14 2:30 PM
Colorado State
Western Mich 12/20/14 4:45 PM
Air Force
South Alabama 12/20/14 8:15 PM
Bowling Green
BYU 12/22/14 1:00 PM
Memphis
Marshall 12/23/14 5:00 PM
Northern Ill
Navy 12/23/14 8:30 PM
San Diego St
Central Mich 12/24/14 11:00 AM
Western Ky
Fresno State 12/24/14 7:00 PM
Rice
Niagara 76 FINAL
Cleveland State 58
High Point 59 FINAL
VA Commonwealth 81
Towson 64 FINAL
Wake Forest 74
Presbyterian 50 FINAL
Charlotte 66
Chicago State 62 FINAL
Bradley 59
Northwestern Coll 58 FINAL
Drake 102
Vanderbilt 67 FINAL
Marquette 80
Temple 78 FINAL
Howard 48
Southern Miss 66 FINAL
Ole Miss 68
UMBC 55 FINAL
Rider 67
Miami-Florida 74 FINAL
UCLA 67
St Mary-KS 51 FINAL
South Dakota 115
William & Mary 71 FINAL
Wofford 51
Troy 82 FINAL
Evansville 94
Loyola Marymount 54 FINAL
USC 96
St Francis-PA 52 FINAL
Duquesne 92
Indiana-Southeast 45 FINAL
IUPUI 95
Delaware State 52 FINAL
Detroit 74
Tenn Temple 48 FINAL
Gardner-Webb 68
West Virginia St 58 FINAL
Radford 52
Fairfield 47 FINAL
Seton Hall 79
Dartmouth 44 FINAL
New Hampshire 60
Ball State 47 FINAL
Pittsburgh 59
Jacksonville 61 FINAL
Tennessee St 64
Trine 45 FINAL
Western Mich 81
Tenn Tech 53 FINAL
Lipscomb 72
Samford 56 FINAL
Tulane 57
New Orleans 55 FINAL
Tulsa 78
Incarnate Word 61 FINAL
TX-Pan American 65
Ark-Little Rock 42 FINAL
South Dakota St 67
CS-Northridge 77 FINAL
Northern Ariz 71
(19) Oklahoma St 55 FINAL
Weber State 49
Washington 69 FINAL
San Diego State 48
Cal Poly 68 FINAL
New Mexico 84
(10) Louisville 65 FINAL
Grand Canyon 51
Santa Clara 79 2nd OT 3:55
Oregon 79
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Gophers Football Time W L Score
2014 season     
Aug 28 - vs. E. Illinois 6 pmX42-20
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