There probably will only four Big Ten teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the Gophers are tied for fourth place with two regular season games left.
Gophers women's basketball coach Pam Borton doesn't want her players to become paralyzed by the possible postseason scenarios, but she isn't going to sugarcoat things either.
Two consecutive losses, including an unsightly 59-57 home loss to Wisconsin this past Saturday, have stripped the Gophers of the breathing room they had and left them with virtually no margin for error with two games left in the regular season.
Still in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid, the Gophers can essentially punch their ticket by defeating Indiana tonight at Williams Arena and Michigan on the road Sunday. Fittingly, those three teams are tied for fourth place in the Big Ten standings at 9-7.
Stumble once or twice and the Gophers likely will have to win multiple games in the Big Ten tournament next week to secure a berth.
Their fate is still in their hands, a message Borton delivered to her players after their worst loss of the year.
"Our players want to know where we are, what's at stake and what we have to do," Borton said. "They understand it. We've kind of tried to hold it back from them, but now is the time. It's go time right now. We need to play like our life is on the line."
Here's why: It seems likely only four Big Ten teams will earn NCAA tournament bids. Ohio State and Iowa are locks. Purdue is 11-6 in the conference but only 15-13 overall, which puts the Boilermakers on the bubble. A 12-6 Big Ten record, however, would be hard for the selection committee to ignore.
Minnesota (18-10 overall) has two more victories than both Michigan and Indiana, but it's far from settled.
"We definitely still have some work to do, but there is no doubt in my mind that we're going to make it to the NCAA tournament," said Gophers senior forward Leslie Knight, who will play her final home game tonight. "We need to win these next two games, which would secure fourth place in the Big Ten and give us a really good seed."
That is another factor to consider. The top five seeds get a bye in the Big Ten tournament. The Gophers have hardly any depth, so securing a bye would be valuable.
The Gophers certainly can't have any more performances like their most recent one. They missed their final 17 shots against Wisconsin and shot a season-low 30.8 percent from the field in a home loss to a team that was eighth in the conference standings.
"You can't dwell on it," said guard Emily Fox, who carried the Gophers with 28 points. "Hopefully, we can learn some things from it. But we have to move on. We have to play better basketball obviously."
Indiana, which defeated the Gophers in double overtime earlier this season, gained some momentum with an upset of league-leading Ohio State on Monday. The Hoosiers (16-12) have been inconsistent this season, but the Gophers are in no position to take anything for granted.
"I think if we had won that [Wisconsin] game we would have had a little more breathing room going into these last two games," Borton said. "But now there's a sense of urgency, and there's a little more pressure. We want to get to the NCAA Tournament and we need to give ourselves enough wins to get there."
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