VikesCentric is written by Twin Cities football writers Bo Mitchell and Patrick Donnelly of SportsData, and Ted Carlson of TST Media. They are Twin Cities-based Vikings and NFL experts who crunch numbers, watch video and tell you what's on their minds.

Posts about Super Bowl

VikesCentric: It doesn't feel like Packers week

Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: October 19, 2011 - 10:00 PM

Wait a minute… this is "Packers Week," isn't it?

Yep, I just double-checked: the Vikings absolutely host the Packers at Mall of America Field this Sunday afternoon at 3:15.
 
Normally, Packers Week in Vikings territory is filled with back-and-forth taunting and braggadocio across the state line -- or in some cases even across the office or across the living room. The Vikings/Packers border battle is the biggest rivalry in Minnesota sports and one of the biggest in the NFL, but you'd never know it this week.
 
Whether by some odd design or coincidence, Vikings fans find themselves distracted by shiny objects in the days leading up to Sunday's showdown, namely: a new starting quarterback and the prospect of a shiny, new stadium. 
 
Perhaps it's a good thing the focus is elsewhere. Frankly, the Vikings/Packers rivalry isn't really much of a rivalry right now. On paper it's a sizeable mismatch.
 
Just two years ago, during Brett Favre's first season with the Vikings, the intra-divisional feud was at its zenith. Who will ever forget that Bizarro-World Monday night in October of 2009 when Favre played as a Viking against the Packers for the first time? The buzz was off the charts and the prime time contest drew record ratings.
 
The Vikings swept the Packers in 2009 en route to the NFC Championship game. The Packers reciprocated in 2010, and one-upped the Vikes by sweeping them en route to a Super Bowl championship. The second game of the series in 2010 – a 31-3 blowout by the Packers at the Metrodome – was the final straw for Brad Childress. It also signaled a hiatus in the heated rivalry.
 
Vikings/Packers will become a true rivalry once again, in time, provided the Vikings get a new stadium in the Twin Cities rather than relocating to Hollywood.
 
(Side note: by mentioning a new stadium not once, but twice, I have virtually ensured that at least 95 percent of the comments below will not be about the Vikings/Packers, but will instead be anti-stadium rants.)   
 
For now, however, even the most ardent Vikings fan can't boast with a straight face that they have a shot of beating the snot out of the Packers on Sunday. Yeah, I know, I know, "on any given Sunday…" but let's be serious.  On paper, this doesn't look like much of a game.
 
Starting with that four-touchdown loss to the Packers last season, the Vikings have won just four of their last 14 regular season games. Meanwhile, including last year's postseason, the Packers have won the last 12 times they have taken the field. The Packers are the only undefeated team in the NFL right now and they lead the league in points.
 
So what's the worst thing that could happen for Vikings fans this Sunday? It's not another four- or five-touchdown blowout. I would argue the worst thing that could happen to the Vikings is having the Packers treat them like they did the Rams last Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Packers raced to a 28-3 halftime lead over the Rams last week, and then… stopped trying. They took the foot off the gas and toyed with the Rams in the second half like a dog plays with its food.
 
It was almost as if they felt sorry for the Rams so they showed some mercy. It was kinda sad.
 
If this Sunday's game gets that out of hand – if even the Vikings' hated rivals from across the border don't consider them as a serious enough threat to put forth a full, 60-minute effort – then this season will have reached a new low.
 
Vikings fans can only hope it doesn't come to that.
 
Bo Mitchell is VP of content at SportsData and co-host of the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on Saturday mornings on KFAN 100.3 FM.
 
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

VikesCentric: A memorable rivalry

Posted by: Patrick Donnelly Updated: October 7, 2011 - 10:41 AM

 

For two teams that don't play in the same division, the Vikings and Cardinals have put together a pretty impressive run of memorable games lately. Sunday's game will be the sixth meeting between the teams in the last nine years, and four of the last five games have carried special significance for the Purple.

So join us, won't you, as we take a walk down memory lane and revisit this curious rivalry between the desert dwellers and the tenants of the tundra.

Nov. 7, 2010 – Vikings 27, Cardinals 24 (OT)
Fresh off the debacle in New England and the release of Randy Moss, Brad Childress needed his team to make a statement in the Metrodome in order to save his job. But for the first 55 minutes of the game, that statement appeared to be, "Fire the bum already!" The Cardinals led by 14 and the Vikings were spinning their wheels until Brett Favre briefly became The Ol' Gunslinger again, leading the offense on two TD drives in the final 4 minutes and 32 seconds and sending the game into overtime on a 25-yard strike to Visanthe Shiancoe with 27 seconds left.

Favre threw for a career-high 446 yards, including a 22-yard pass to Bernard Berrian (he must have had no other options) that set up Ryan Longwell's 35-yard game-winning field goal that temporarily calmed the fans' thirst for Childress' blood.

"I think they came expecting to see an execution, and it ended up a pretty good football game at the end," Childress said afterwards. But it was just a temporary reprieve for the 3-5 Vikings and their beleaguered head coach. Two weeks later, after a listless home loss to the Packers, the fans got their wish and Chilly got his pink slip.

 

Dec. 6, 2009 – Cardinals 30, Vikings 17
The Vikings were riding high at 10-1 when they traveled to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals in a nationally televised Sunday night game. The offense had been held below 27 points only once, in their lone loss at Pittsburgh a month earlier. But Favre threw two picks (after having thrown only three in the previous 11 games) and Adrian Peterson was held to 19 yards on 13 carries as the Vikings fell behind 21-10 at the half and didn't do much the rest of the way.

In many ways, this game was the beginning of the end for the magical 2009 season. Favre was seen quarreling with Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell on the sidelines, the first actual evidence of the infamous schism that became an undercurrent of the final two months of the season. Throw in E.J. Henderson's gruesome broken leg, which forced rookie Jasper Brinkley into a key role the rest of the way, and this loss knocked the Vikings off-kilter on both sides of the ball.

 

Dec. 14, 2008 – Vikings 35, Cardinals 14
At 8-5, the visiting Vikings needed two wins in their last three games to wrap up a playoff berth, while the Cardinals already had sewn up the NFC West (their first division title in 33 years), and from the outset it was clear which team had shown up to play. Stepping in for the injured Gus Frerotte, Tarvaris Jackson threw a career-high four touchdown passes and the Vikings raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. Berrian returned a punt 82 yards for Minnesota's first score, and Jackson later hit him on a 41-yard rainbow for another TD (too bad B-Twice wasn't on Twitter yet) and the rout was on.

The Vikings went on to beat the Giants in Week 17 to clinch the NFC North before losing to the Eagles and some guy named McNabb in the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were destroyed in New England the next week, then rattled off a nice little four-game winning streak to reach their first-ever Super Bowl.

 

Nov. 26, 2006 – Vikings 31, Cardinals 26
Umm … OK, this one's not actually worth remembering. The Vikings got three TD passes from Brad Johnson (to Marcus Robinson, Billy McMullen and Jeff Dugan – I told you it wasn't worth remembering) while Cardinals rookie Matt Leinart threw for 405 yards, a mark he hasn't come close to matching since. Denny Green made his not-so-triumphant return to Minnesota that day, but his 2-9 Cards were no match for Chilly's 5-6 juggernaut. Arizona did tie an NFL record with two 99-yard touchdowns – a kickoff return by J.J. Arrington and a fumble return by Adrian Wilson – but the Vikings pulled out to a 31-13 lead in the fourth quarter and held on for what turned out to be a pretty meaningless win in a pretty meaningless season.

Perhaps the game was most notable for being the first meeting between the Cardinals and Vikings since …

 

Dec. 28, 2003 – Cardinals 18, Vikings 17
"NOOOOOOOOO! NOOOOOOOOOO! The Cardinals have knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!" Yes, all the Vikings had to do was defend one more play and the NFC North crown would have been theirs, in Mike Tice's second season as head coach, no less.

But of course, we all remember Arizona quarterback Josh McCown scrambling to his right and heaving the ball into the end zone, where journeyman receiver Nate Poole hauled it in and got two feet down for a 28-yard touchdown that sent the Vikings home for the season, put the Packers in the playoffs, and gave Paul Allen his first dose of national airtime with that painful final play call.

(NOTE: Careful readers have pointed out that Poole technically did not get two feet down -- the Vikings were victimized by the lame "force-out" rule that's since been excised from the books. True. Also a distinction without a difference. It didn't make that flight back from Phoenix any happier for the Vikings knowing that if the play had occurred in a different era they would have won. And yet, thanks to those who have pointed out the discrepancy.)

So what will we remember from this year's Vikings-Cardinals game? Will it be the start of the Christian Ponder Era? Will Donovan McNabb save his job and get head coach Leslie Frazier his first victory since the interim tag was removed from his title? Or maybe Larry Fitzgerald will blow up for four touchdowns, Kevin Kolb will start earning that ridiculous contract he weasled out of the Cardinals, and Berrian will insult a nun on Facebook. As recent history has shown, almost anything is possible when the Vikings and Cardinals get together.

 

 

Patrick Donnelly is a Senior Editor at SportsData, contributor to the Maple Street Press Vikings 2011 Annual (on newsstands now!), and has covered the Vikings for FOXSportsNorth.com, Viking Update and the Associated Press.

VikesCentric: If not now, when?

Posted by: Updated: October 4, 2011 - 3:53 PM

I’m sure the Vikings can see what everyone else can see. They aren’t going to make the playoffs this year. There are too many holes on the roster – from defensive back to the offensive line to the obvious problem at quarterback – and at 0-4 with two 4-0 teams in the same division, the season is effectively over.

You can’t possibly expect the coach or organization to admit that, though, which is exactly what they’d be doing by inserting Christian Ponder over Donovan McNabb right now. No rational organization would send such a signal after just four games, no matter how deflating the four losses have been. The only way a team can pull that off is by admitting that they’re rebuilding right from the start. Had the Vikings opted not to acquire McNabb and instead said right from the get-go that they were going to sacrifice the season in favor of developing Ponder for the future, that’s something you can at least attempt to sell to the public.

Once the Vikes brought in McNabb and trotted him out as the starter in Week 1, they were declaring their intentions. They weren’t the Bengals or the Panthers – teams that could afford to start their own rookie quarterbacks coming off of a long history of futility (not to mention, it’s a different story if you’re Carolina and your rookie quarterback is the No. 1 overall pick in the draft). They weren’t even the Jaguars, who announced their intentions loud and clear when they canned veteran signal-caller David Garrard on the eve of the season with the obvious intention of playing rookie Blaine Gabbert sooner rather than later.

The fans in Cincy and Jacksonville are used to losing. They’re ready to be sold on the future, even if it means there’s no hope for this year. The Bengals can be excited (well, not that excited, but we’ll get to that in a bit) about watching Andy Dalton and A.J. Green with no expectations other than seeing some sign that there’s hope for the future.

But the Vikings are only one full season removed from the NFC Championship game. It’s a lot tougher to sell a rebuilding effort when you were on the cusp of the Super Bowl less than two calendar years ago. Or when you’re paying millions of dollars to a couple of high-priced defensive stars (Jared Allen and Kevin Williams) in the prime of their careers. Or when you’re trying to sign two of your young building blocks (Chad Greenway and Adrian Peterson) to mega-contracts before they walk away to less purple pastures. And if you can’t sell a rebuilding effort to your own locker room, it’s an even tougher sell to the fans. This wasn’t a rebuilding year to the tens of thousands of season ticket holders who renewed their seats after last year’s wasted season. It wasn’t a rebuilding year the day single-game tickets went on sale. It wasn’t even a rebuilding year the day they picked Ponder in the first round of the NFL Draft.

And it’s not a rebuilding year now, either. Not publicly. Just four games in, the Vikes just aren’t at a point where they can admit their mistake and look to 2012. Not yet. Not when there are tickets to sell for the next home game. Just ask Leslie Frazier. Or, ask the Bengals. Bengals fans in the immediate Cincinnati area are so excited about the “hope” being sold by Dalton and Green that they haven’t seen their squad play on TV since the middle of last year. Turns out, hope is a tough sell, as they’ve now failed to sell out their last six consecutive home games.

As of last Tuesday, the Vikings were 6,500 seats shy of a sellout for this week’s game. I get the sense the insertion of Ponder would actually be a short-term boost from a PR perspective, even if it’s a long-term hit when the team inevitably continues to lose. A cynic might say the Vikings must be close to selling out this week’s game already and that they don’t need the Ponder PR boost this week.  Perhaps the team is keeping that bullet in the chamber with the expectation that they'll need it in mid-November, the next time they’ll be in danger of a home non-sellout (the only home game between Arizona and November 20 against the Raiders is the always-sold-out Packers on October 23).

And who knows, perhaps by November 20 the McNabb-led squad will have engineered an unlikely about-face with four consecutive wins over the Cardinals at home, the Bears on the road, Green Bay at home, and Carolina on the road. Actually, nevermind. But even so, November 20 is still the next-most likely date for Ponder’s unveiling. Even at 0-5, you wouldn’t throw him to the wolves at Chicago next week or at home against the Packers the week after that (remember, cynics, you don't need to sell tickets to that game). October 30 at Carolina is a possibility, but the Week 9 bye sure would be handy from a preparatory standpoint to start giving Ponder first-team reps in practice. And asking a rookie to debut on Monday night on the road against the Super Bowl champs in Week 11 is just asking for disaster.

That brings us to November 20, at home against the Raiders. Realistically, at that point the Vikings are 2-7, maybe 3-6 if they catch a few breaks, and with very little chance of selling out against an annually non-contending AFC team. And then, with hope undeniably lost for 2011, it will be time to start selling hope in the future.

 

VikesCentric: Fail to the Chiefs

Posted by: Updated: September 29, 2011 - 8:44 PM

Take heart, Vikings fans, it could be worse. You could be a Chiefs fan.

For all their shortcomings, the Vikings are in a far better position than the Chiefs headed into a Week 4 game only blood relations and fantasy football players could love.

Think the Vikings are struggling on third down? They've converted them 36.1% of the time. The Chiefs are at 27.8%.

Think the Vikes need to score more points and allow fewer? They average 20 per game on offense and are yielding 24.7 on defense. Kansas City has scored 27 points all season long and gives up an average of nearly two touchdowns per game more than the Vikings on defense.

Think the Minnesota passing game couldn't be worse? The Chiefs' Matt Cassel hasn't thrown for more than 176 yards in a game, is averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt (for the record, Donovan McNabb isn't that much better at 5.9... but given the Vikings pitiful downfield passing game, it's saying something that Kansas City's is worse), and has been directly responsible for six turnovers.

Think the Purple should have fewer three-and-outs and hang on to the ball more? Eleven teams have worse time of possession than the VIkings (28:01 per game), including the Chiefs, who rank ahead of only the Peyton Manning-less Colts at a hair over 25:17. The good news: someone has to have the ball this Sunday.

Turnovers? How about a turnover margin of minus-6 for the Chiefs, compared to +1 for the Vikings.

All of which means next-to nothing, of course. Except maybe to the fatalistic Vikings backer who might be afraid it's all going to turn around for the Chiefs this weekend. I'm merely illustrating that the Chiefs have sunk even lower than the Vikings - especially when you consider where they came from.

Believe it or not, the Chiefs won the AFC West last season. Seriously, I looked it up. Their 10-6 record wasn't world-beating, but they were 7-1 at home and had little or no reason to believe they had a one-way ticket to the NFL's cellar in 2011.

Conversely, the Vikings came into 2011 on the heels of a 6-10 season while playing in a division that produced the reigning Super Bowl champ and both NFC title game participants a year ago.Expectations simply weren't (or shouldn't have been) that high. Frankly, had a rational  Vikings fan looked at this year's schedule a couple of months ago, a trip to one of the NFL's loudest stadiums against a division-winning opponent that went 7-1 at home the year before looked like a loss, even for the thirstiest of grape Kool-aid drinkers.

Now, the Vikings, at 0-3 and with three back-breaking, snatch-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory losses, with an offense that can't convert a third down and a defense that has made an artform out of the second-half collapse, are favored to beat the 2010 AFC West champions on their turf.

Oh yes, it could be worse.

 

Christian Peterson is the Operations Manager at LeagueSafe.com and is a contributor to Vikings.com, the 2011 Maple Street Press Vikings Annual, and the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on Saturday Mornings on KFAN 100.3 FM.

VikesCentric: Pondering a change …

Posted by: Patrick Donnelly Updated: September 26, 2011 - 12:47 AM

The Vikings keep finding more creative ways to lose games, and in the wake of the ever-stupefying defeats, naturally fans are looking for somebody to blame. Leslie Frazier, Bill Musgrave, Tyrell Johnson, Ragnar … hell, there are probably some people still mad at Bob Schnelker.

But the No. 1 target of the fans' disdain is quarterback Donovan McNabb. The scorn is justified. McNabb has been everything we saw last year in his dismal stint with the Redskins – inconsistent, indecisive, and all too inaccurate. So naturally, Vikings fans and even some in the media have begun calling for Frazier to bench McNabb in favor of rookie Christian Ponder.

I understand the argument – I really do. McNabb has been just shy of terrible, three other rookie quarterbacks (Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert and Andy Dalton) are already starting even though Ponder was dubbed the most "NFL-ready" of the No. 1 draft picks, and the backup quarterback is always the most popular guy on the roster.

So I understand the calls for Ponder. I just don't agree with them.

To be clear, this is not a defense of McNabb. He's been the main reason for the three straight second-half collapses – the offense has done next to nothing after halftime all year, leaving the defense tired and exposed. He can't throw downfield (though his receivers and offensive line are a huge part of that dynamic), and when he had a chance to hit Bernard Berrian (!) with a potential game-winning TD on Sunday, McNabb's throw fluttered harmlessly out of bounds.

But this decision should have nothing to do with McNabb. Remember, when the Vikings traded for the veteran quarterback, they told us he was brought here to protect Ponder. The Vikings brain trust didn't want to rush the rookie. They didn't want to force-feed their No. 1 draft pick to NFL defenses before he was ready, and the offseason labor stoppage cost him valuable time to master Musgrave's offense.

Thus, it really doesn't matter if McNabb throws for 39 yards in a game, or can't hit an open man in the end zone, or throws ball after ball at his receivers' feet. Because this decision isn't about McNabb – or at least it shouldn't be.

The only factor that matters is whether Vikings coaches believe that Ponder is ready to start. If there's any chance that playing Ponder right now will risk long-term damage to his development – or endanger his health, given the Vikings' pass-protection issues of late – there's no reason to throw him to the wolves right now.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this team is not Super Bowl-bound. I'll admit that when the season started, I thought the Vikings were about an 8-8 team – maybe they'd catch a few breaks, win a couple tossup games and pull out a Wild Card berth. Well, they've now had three of those tossup games, and they've lost them all.

Sure, it's frustrating to watch an over-the-hill McNabb waste three straight impressive performances by the Vikings defense with second-half performances that would make Spurgeon Wynn cringe.

But even if you think Ponder gives them the best chance to win right now, there's no sense in calling on the rookie quarterback to save the season, because there's nothing to save.

The Vikings traded for Donovan McNabb to serve as a bridge to the Christian Ponder Era. No need to cross that bridge until you have a better idea of what's on the other side.
 

Patrick Donnelly is a Senior Editor at SportsData, contributor to the Maple Street Press Vikings 2011 Annual (on newsstands now!), and has covered the Vikings for FOXSportsNorth.com, Viking Update and the Associated Press.

VikesCentric: Lions bandwagon careens out of control

Posted by: Updated: September 20, 2011 - 9:47 PM

It's kind of cute, really. The down-on-their-luck, plucky kids from Detroit are on a roll. Led by Matthew Stafford and a high octane offense and Ndamukong Suh's flashy defensive playmaking, the Lions are 2-0 and everyone's darling.

So much so, in fact, that the Lions are favored to beat the Vikings on Sunday. In Minnesota. Where they haven't won since 1997. Where they've lost by an average score of 25-17 over the last 25 years.

As ESPN's NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert notes, the Vegas line on this game (The Lions are favored by 3.5-4.0 points depending on your source) is essentially unprecedented.

In the aforementioned 25-year span, the Lions have defeated the Vikings in Minnesota only four times. Not since 1991 has the winning margin been greater than four points. In the last 17 games at Mall of America Field, Detroit has scored more than 17 points just twice. They haven't scored more than 10 points in Minnesota since 2006. Heck, they've only beaten the Vikes twice in the last 9 games in Detroit. In other words, no matter where these two teams have played in the last decade, the Vikings have gone 17-3. Only one of those three Lions wins was by more than 3 points.

I get it. The Vikings are reeling. The Lions are riding high. The Vikings offense can't convert a third down and the defense has collapsed in the second half two weeks in a row. The Lions have scored 75 points in two games and haven't given up a sack. Dating back to last December, and including the preseason, they've won each of the last 10 times they've taken the field. The Vikings have won just one of their last six regular season games. Calvin Johnson is made out of titanium and has Red Bull pulsing through his veins. Percy Harvin is one sneeze away from his next migraine. Matthew Stafford is the next Tom Brady. Donovan McNabb is the next Tarvaris Jackson. Jahvid Best is the next Barry Sanders. Suh is the next Kevin Williams. And on and on.

It's all very intriguing. And almost enough to make me believe the downtrodden, underdog Vikings have no chance to pull out a win against the dominating, been-there, done-that, bona fide Super Bowl contender Lions this Sunday.

Almost.

 

Christian Peterson is the Operations Manager at LeagueSafe.com and is a contributor to Vikings.com, the 2011 Maple Street Press Vikings Annual, and the Fantasy Football Weekly radio show on Saturday Mornings on KFAN 100.3.

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