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VikesCentric is written by Twin Cities football writers Bo Mitchell and Patrick Donnelly of SportsData, and Ted Carlson of TST Media. They are Twin Cities-based Vikings and NFL experts who crunch numbers, watch video and tell you what's on their minds.
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VikesCentric: Playoffs?!? You kidding me? Playoffs?
Posted by: Ted Carlson Updated: December 30, 2012 - 9:22 PM
Four weeks ago, the Vikings hit a low point in their season. The December 2 loss in Green Bay left the Vikings at 6-6, and with four losses over their previous five games, it appeared as though an improbable run from 3-13 to the playoffs was over - just another crushed dream for the Minnesota sports scene.
But a funny thing happened while fans were punching Christian Ponder's ticket out of town, calling for the entire coaching staff to be fired, and wondering what wide receiver the Vikings might target with their top-15 pick... the Purple won their final four games and earned the NFC's sixth seed. Amazing.
How refreshingly wonderful does this feel? Over the last four weeks, the Vikings stepped up, defied odds, exceeded expectations, and ripped off wins over the Bears, Rams, Texans, and Packers. Even the most grumbly, curmudgeonly, passive-aggressive Vikings fan should be all smiles right now.
Sunday's win over the Packers was one of the sweetest victories in my recent memory, especially since I'm one of the many Minnesota sports fans often consuming by the pessimistic belief that our teams are somehow doomed to fail and slap us in the face. Every Aaron Rodgers counter-punch - and there were many in the second half; #12 was brilliant - threatened to end the Vikings' season, but MVP* Adrian Peterson, the much-maligned Ponder, and the entire team took the punishment, got off the canvas, and ultimately delivered the victory.
(*There should be zero doubt across the country that AD is the 2012 MVP. I have nothing against Peyton Manning, but he joined a team that won a playoff game last season thanks to an excellent defense and a strong running game. I can name 5-10 quarterbacks who might have led the 2012 Broncos to the playoffs. Replace Peterson with any other running back in the NFL and the Vikings aren't in the postseason.)
In the biggest game of his young career, Ponder may have secured his space atop the 2013 depth chart. We've all been pining for him to perform exactly like he did on Sunday - work off of Peterson's lead, keep the chains moving, protect the ball, and occasionally step up and make a big play or three. I'm still in shock that the Vikings completed four passes of 20-plus yards in one game, including the 65-yard strike to Jarius Wright**. Through 15 games, the Vikings owned a mere 24 completions of 20-plus yards, by far the worst in the NFL.
(**As an aside, this impressive four-game win streak and push to the playoffs has come without Percy Harvin, the team's MVP during the first half of this season. It will be interesting to see how this plays into what should be an interesting offseason when Percy could receive a contract extension, be traded, or begrudgingly play out his contract.)
Ponder has deserved every bit of criticism he has received for his poor on-field play this season, and he also deserves praise for improving in recent weeks and for the win over the Packers. No matter what happens in the playoffs, Ponder's recent play should be a confidence boost as he heads into a critical offseason and a make-or-break 2013 campaign.
The Vikings will be heavy underdogs when they head into Lambeau this coming weekend, and frankly, a victory would simply be extra frosting on what currently feels like a pretty sweet and fulfilling season. Then again, the Purple are peaking at the right time with four straight wins and coulda, shoulda won in Green Bay on December 2. Anything can happen in the postseason; just ask the 2005 Steelers or the 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings.
But let's start worrying about the playoff game later this week. Take a moment to bask in the fleeting glow of a Minnesota sports team rising to the occasion and delivering a winning performance (and four weeks of winning performances) beyond our expectations.
VikesCentric: Adrian already in rarified air
Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: December 11, 2012 - 6:45 PMWith three games to go, Adrian Peterson currently has the 50th-highest single-season rushing total in NFL history, and he continues to climb the list with every run.
Peterson has already admitted he's thinking about the record of 2,105 yards set by Eric Dickerson of the 1984 Los Angeles Rams. All he needs is 169 yards per game over the final three games to break Dickerson's record – which, when you consider the fact he's averaged 165 over the last five games, seems remarkably within reach.
His offensive line, which is also focused on making some history via Peterson, seems eager to do anything it can to help him get there. Listening to center John Sullivan on KFAN Tuesday morning, you'd think they might be more pumped up about getting the record than Peterson.
Of course, as they have been doing all season, Peterson and his line will be attempting to make a little history over the next three games against eight and nine-man defensive fronts. That's not going to change regardless of how Christian Ponder performs. The loss of Percy Harvin made the Vikings offense even more one-dimensional than it already was – making Peterson's exploits all the more astounding. In addition, the fact he's doing all this less than a year after having his knee surgically reconstructed is nothing short of unprecedented.
Teams know Peterson is going to run. They watch film of his runs and then scheme to stop them, paying comically-little attention to the Vikes' passing game. And yet, all Adrian does is pile up one 100-yard game after another.
The superlatives have run out.
In an effort to gain some perspective on just how incredible Peterson's run at 2,000 yards has been given the complete and utter lack of a passing threat, I turned to the statistical record and drummed up some pretty compelling data.
Below is a list of the 28 seasons in which a player has rushed for 1,700 yards. Yes, I know Peterson is only at 1,600, but I think we can all agree he'll get at least 100 more this year. Besides, I didn't want a list of 50. I have included each player's average yards per carry and, as a means of measuring the help he gets from his team's passing attack, the average yards per pass attempt of each player's team.
Keep in mind that Peterson is currently averaging 6.0 yards per carry and Ponder is currently averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
|
Player
|
Rushing yards
|
Year
|
Team
|
YPC
|
Team's Passing YPA
|
|
Eric Dickerson
|
2,105
|
1984
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
5.6
|
6.7
|
|
Jamal Lewis
|
2,066
|
2003
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
5.3
|
6.1
|
|
Barry Sanders
|
2,053
|
1997
|
Detroit Lions
|
6.1
|
6.7
|
|
Terrell Davis
|
2,008
|
1998
|
Denver Broncos
|
5.1
|
7.8
|
|
Chris Johnson
|
2,006
|
2009
|
Tennessee Titans
|
5.6
|
6.5
|
|
O.J. Simpson
|
2,003
|
1973
|
Buffalo Bills
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
|
Earl Campbell
|
1,934
|
1980
|
Houston Oilers
|
5.2
|
7.1
|
|
Ahman Green
|
1,883
|
2003
|
Green Bay Packers
|
5.3
|
7.1
|
|
Barry Sanders
|
1,883
|
1994
|
Detroit Lions
|
5.7
|
6.7
|
|
Shaun Alexander
|
1,880
|
2005
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
5.1
|
7.7
|
|
Jim Brown
|
1,863
|
1963
|
Cleveland Browns
|
6.4
|
7.6
|
|
Tiki Barber
|
1,860
|
2005
|
New York Giants
|
5.2
|
6.7
|
|
Ricky Williams
|
1,853
|
2002
|
Miami Dolphins
|
4.8
|
6.7
|
|
Walter Payton
|
1,852
|
1977
|
Chicago Bears
|
5.5
|
6.8
|
|
Jamal Anderson
|
1,846
|
1998
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
4.5
|
8.8
|
|
Eric Dickerson
|
1,821
|
1986
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
4.5
|
5.9
|
|
O.J. Simpson
|
1,817
|
1975
|
Buffalo Bills
|
5.5
|
7.5
|
|
LaDainian Tomlinson
|
1,815
|
2006
|
San Diego Chargers
|
5.2
|
7.3
|
|
Eric Dickerson
|
1,808
|
1983
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
4.6
|
7.0
|
|
Larry Johnson
|
1,789
|
2006
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
4.3
|
7.2
|
|
Emmitt Smith
|
1,773
|
1995
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
4.7
|
7.6
|
|
Adrian Peterson
|
1,760
|
2008
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
4.8
|
7.1
|
|
Marcus Allen
|
1,759
|
1985
|
Los Angeles Raiders
|
4.6
|
6.9
|
|
Larry Johnson
|
1,750
|
2005
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
5.2
|
7.9
|
|
Terrell Davis
|
1,750
|
1997
|
Denver Broncos
|
4.7
|
7.2
|
|
Gerald Riggs
|
1,719
|
1985
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
4.3
|
6.5
|
|
Emmitt Smith
|
1,713
|
1992
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
4.6
|
7.3
|
|
Edgerrin James
|
1,709
|
2000
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
4.4
|
7.7
|
As you can see from the table above, Peterson is already honing in on pretty exclusive company.
· Only three players have ever rushed for 1,700 yards while averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
· Only three players have ever rushed for 1,700 yards while their team averaged less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
· Most incredibly, only one player (O.J. Simpson in 1973) has ever rushed for 1,700 yards while averaging as many or more yards per carry as his team averaged per pass attempt.
In other words, Simpson's 1973 Bills also had no pass threat for opposing defenses to consider.
The numbers don't lie. Regardless of whether he breaks the record or even gets to 2,000 yards, if those yards per attempt averages hold up over the course of the next three games, Peterson's season should be regarded as one of the most impressive ever by a running back.
Bo Mitchell is the VP of Content at SportsData
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell
VikesCentric: Looking at the NFL's worst vertical passing attack
Posted by: Ted Carlson Updated: December 1, 2012 - 11:59 AMEvery Vikings fan knows that our passing attack is far, far removed from the "Three Deep" days. It's a rare Sunday that we see Christian Ponder unleashing the type of long pass that makes you shift to the edge of your seat in anticipation of a big gain.
We could argue in circles about the reasons behind the lack of explosive plays in the Vikings passing attack - Ponder's downfield inaccuracy vs. a lack of speedy receivers vs. a lack of receivers who can't catch vs. Bill Musgrave's playbook, which seems to include only one or two routes that go beyond 15 yards. It's a combination of all of the above, which have led to these number: 9.6 and 20.
The Vikings are averaging an NFL-low 9.59 yards per reception.
Who is ranked 31st? The Arizona Cardinals sit at 10.54. Yes, an offense that has seen their quarterback carousel turn to Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, and Ryan Lindley manages nearly one full yard per catch more than the Vikings.
The Vikings have completed an NFL-low 20 completions of 20-plus yards.
The Bears (27) and Chiefs (27) are tied for 30th, and it would take a miracle for the Purple to catch them at this point. The 2009 Browns (25) were the last team to finish a full season with fewer than 30 completions of 20-plus yards.
When we stack that 9.6 yards-per-reception average against recent history, we find only four teams who've been more pathetic in the past decade - the 2009 St. Louis Rams (9.5), the 2008 Cincinnati Bengals (8.8), the 2006 Houston Texans (9.2), and the 2003 Detroit Lions (9.4). Let's look briefly look back at those four offenses, where they were, and how they reacted:
The 2003 Lions were led by second-year quarterback Joey Harrington, whose top pass-catchers were running back Shawn Bryson, slot man Az-Zahir Hakim, tight end Mikhael Ricks, and fullback Cory Schlesinger. They were hurt by another Charles Rogers injury (five games played) and a steep fade in production by Bill Schroeder. With the seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft, the Lions selected Texas wide receiver Roy Williams. They also added speedy running back Kevin Jones with the 30th overall pick and signed wide receiver Tai Streets.
The 2006 Texans featured fifth-year starter David Carr, who completed 103 passes to Andre Johnson and 57 passes to aged veteran Eric Moulds. Rookie tight end Owen Daniels (34 catches) was a minor factor, as was Kevin Walter (17 catches). In the 2007 offseason, the Texans ditched Carr and Moulds, made a huge trade with the Falcons to land Matt Schaub, signed speedster Andre Davis, and drafted deep threat Jacoby Jones in the third round.
The 2008 Bengals lost Carson Palmer to an elbow injury after four games and turned the keys over to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was a relatively untested commodity at the time. Chad Johnson punctuated a terrible offseason by changing his last name in August, pouting, playing terribly, and finishing with 53 receptions for 540 yards over 13 games. T.J. Houshmandzadeh caught 92 passes but traveled a mere 904 yards. The Bengals had already prepared for the future by selecting Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell in the 2008 draft, but in the 2009 offseason, they also ditched Housh in favor of Laveranues Coles while praying for Palmer's elbow to heal.
The 2009 Rams opened the season with Marc Bulger under center and eventually also used Kyle Boller (four starts) and Keith Null (four starts). Steven Jackson (51) led the team in receptions, followed by raw speedster Donnie Avery (47), rookie Danny Amendola (43), rookie Brandon Gibson (34), and Randy McMichael (34). With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, the Rams took quarterback Sam Bradford. They also traded for Mark Clayton and Laurent Robinson, selected three pass-catchers in the later rounds of the draft, and gave a shot to undrafted rookie Danario Alexander.
So, what's the lesson here? The Vikings aren't going to cure their lack of a vertical passing game over this final month, but fans can expect Rick Spielman to look far and wide for speedy and big-bodied additions to join Ponder, Percy Harvin, and Kyle Rudolph in the passing attack. We can anticipate waving goodbye to Jerome Simpson, Michael Jenkins, and Devin Aromashodu next offseason, and none of us should shed too many tears.
Some fans are already obsessed with the thought of going over Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, or Dwayne Bowe. I'll leave that discussion for this upcoming offseason, but while we're all dreaming about upgrading this passing attack, it's time to get acquainted with youngsters the Vikings may be looking at with their first-round pick (currently No. 20).
Currently, there's not a clear-cut, top-10 wide receiver in the 2013 draft class. The college player who best fits that profile - USC's Marquise Lee - is only a sophomore. But the Vikings could be in position to go after Keenan Allen (Cal), Justin Hunter (Tennessee), Terrance Williams (Baylor), Robert Woods (USC), or DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson). Tavon Austin (West Virginia) is also in the first-round discussion, but the 5-9, 175-pound speedster isn't the ideal option for a team with Harvin and Jarius Wright.
Rather than ruin my holidays by praying for Simpson to turn into the threat we all hoped he would be, I plan to spend my December dreaming about who might help out this passing attack next year. I suggest my fellow Vikings fans do the same because our current lot of wideouts are what they are and complaining about them will just lead to high blood pressure.
VikesCentric: A must-win game in Chicago
Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: November 24, 2012 - 4:55 PMI generally despise the term "must-win" game.
Shouldn't they all be must-wins? I mean, by its very definition, a must-win game implies that some games really don't matter. I suppose that's the case for teams that are out of playoff contention, but in reality all games should be considered must wins as long as a team is mathematically alive for the postseason. After that, some would argue, games can become "must lose" in order to ensure a higher draft pick.
Now that we've got that somewhat cleared up… Sunday's game in Chicago feels like it should be considered of the must-win ilk for the Minnesota Vikings. This assumes, of course, that you are in the camp that believes it is in the Vikings' best interest to continue winning games in pursuit of a postseason berth.
A cogent argument could be made that the Vikings don't have the horses to go very far – or even advance past the first round – if they do somehow make the playoffs, and therefore losing games down the stretch and missing the postseason wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. That argument presupposes the Vikings are in full-scale rebuilding mode and could benefit more by higher draft picks than a few extra wins during a rebuilding campaign.
Of course, that line of thinking won't get you very far within the halls at Winter Park. For as much as they are refurbishing following last season's 3-13 disaster, the Vikings roster is dotted with high-profile veterans that want to win now. For players like Antoine Winfield, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams time is of the essence. A football player only has so many years to pursue a ring.
Thus, the Vikings really, really need to beat the Bears on Sunday.
The Vikings remaining schedule – as everyone knows – is pretty dicey, and they need to win four of the final six to have a reasonable shot of making it to the playoffs. Ten wins probably gets them in. Nine probably won't cut it. Next week's game against the Packers in Green Bay does not look very winnable for the Purple. The Packers have won the last four games in the series and have won five of the last six games between these two teams at Lambeau Field. And the Week 16 game in Houston appears even less winnable for the Vikings against a 10-1 Texans squad that appears to be one of the four best teams in the league.
In other words, that leaves no room for error in the other four games for Minnesota – two against the Bears, a Week 15 game in St. Louis, and the regular-season finale at home against the Packers.
You want to see the Vikings in the playoffs this season? Then they need to win Sunday in Chicago. Period.
Fortunately for the Vikes, they have a lot of factors aligning perfectly to give them a shot at upsetting the favored Bears – aside from Percy Harvin's tri-lateral ankle sprain that has yet to fully heal.
Not that the Vikings needed a blueprint for beating Chicago, given their familiarity with their division rival, but Monday's lopsided loss by the Bears to the 49ers provided a very detailed roadmap. Christian Ponder and the Vikings offense needs to somehow avoid turning the ball over to the hyper-opportunistic Bears defense and Allen and company need to pin their ears back and pressure the heck out of the quarterback.
Said quarterback will likely be Jay Cutler, who appears on course to return from his concussion, but whether it's Cutler or Jason Campbell, the Vikings have a golden opportunity to really get after him. The Bears offensive line is in complete shambles after being exposed for six sacks by the 49ers. Chilo Rachal was demoted from his starting left guard position following the game and promptly left the team. Meanwhile, starting right tackle Gabe Carimi was also benched after the Niners game. Left tackle J'Marcus Webb hasn't been much better, but remains in the starting lineup to take on Allen – who logged 3.5 sacks against him when these teams met last year in Week 17.
On paper at least, Allen and Brian Robison should have a field day. On paper, Adrian Peterson should be able to continue his dominance because, well, no one has stopped him yet this season. The Bears run defense is stout, but Peterson is playing the best football of his Hall of Fame career right now. On paper, the well-rested Vikings, who don't have many injury concerns beyond Harvin, have the advantage over the Bears who are on a short week after getting mauled on Monday night.
On paper, the Vikings have a really good shot of beating Chicago. And on paper, they really need to do so if they want to remain a relevant playoff contender.
Bo Mitchell is the VP of Content at SportsData
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell
VikesCentric: Giving thanks to the Purple
Posted by: Ted Carlson Updated: November 20, 2012 - 12:08 PMThe holiday week and the bye week have combined to make this a perfect time for Vikings fans to take a step back, consider the big-picture landscape, and think about what they are thankful for this year when it comes to the Purple.
Like most fans, I have plenty to quibble about when it comes to our home club – I’m still trying to get over the Bucs loss and still trying to comprehend the enigma that is Christian Ponder - but when I remember where this franchise sat on January 1, 2012, there are a ton of positives that lead me to believe Vikings fans should be pleased with this year’s progress.
I’m thankful for Adrian Peterson’s inspirational work ethic, alien DNA, newborn-baby knees, and love of the game. It’s an absolute joy to watch him play every week, and it’s mindboggling that he looks this good after tearing up his knee last December.
I’m thankful for the 6-4 record and meaningful games down the stretch. Even with a healthy dose of Purple Kool-Aid in my system, not even my wildest offseason hopes had us sniffing a playoff spot.
I’m thankful for Percy Harvin, who has been arguably the NFL’s most valuable non-quarterback since the middle of the 2011 season. And I’m thankful that Leslie Frazier and Bill Musgrave have found creative ways to get him 166 touches over his last 16 full games.
I’m thankful for the stadium bill.
I’m thankful for Jared Allen’s outspoken attitude and on-field fire. I wish we could bottle up his passion and put it in the home team’s water cooler at Target Field.
I’m thankful for a healthy Antoine Winfield. Watching No. 26 fearlessly take on offensive linemen, tangle with tight ends, and blow up running backs in the backfield brings me as much joy as any AP run or Percy kickoff return.
I’m thankful for Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Jake Locker for assuring us that life isn’t always easy for second-year quarterbacks. Ponder’s fellow 2011 first-round picks have completed 58.0 percent of their passes, own a 80.5 quarterback rating, and are on teams that are a combined 7-23.
I’m thankful for the Vikings 2012 rookie class. Matt Kalil, Harrison Smith, Josh Robinson, Blair Walsh, and Rhett Ellison have all made major contributions, and we saw a spark from Jarius Wright in Week 10. It’s still too early for final grades on this group, but it looks like Rick Spielman deserves something close to an “A”.
I’m thankful for Brian Robison, who continues to remind us that some players are late-bloomers.
I’m thankful that Ponder remembered that Kyle Rudolph is on this team. Rudolph only saw eight combined targets in the Cardinals, Bucs and Seahawks games. That’s unacceptable. Kyle caught seven of his nine targets for 64 yards and a score in Week 10.
I’m thankful to John Sullivan and Kevin Williams for quietly and efficiently anchoring the two lines.
And, finally, I’m thankful that I’m not a Lions fan. Who wants to ruin their Turkey Day meal by watching their team fall in defeat? The Lions have lost eight straight Thanksgiving Day games, and they host the 9-1 Texans this Thursday. Andre Johnson and J.J. Watt should bring their forks in preparation for a slice of post-game turducken.
So, my fellow Vikings fans, what are you thankful for?
Ted is a content strategy manager for TST Media and contributor to LeagueSafe Post. You can follow Ted on Twitter at @tcarlson34.
VikesCentric: What happened to the run defense?
Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: November 7, 2012 - 3:47 PMWhile Minnesota Vikings fans lament Christian Ponder's slump, fret over Percy Harvin's badly sprained ankle and rip the play calling of offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, another significant concern exists on the other side of the ball. The Vikings run defense -- ranked among the best in the league a month ago -- has been obliterated the last four games.
The Vikings have now allowed a running back to top 100 yards and score against them in three straight games: LaRod Stephens-Howling, Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch. Prior to this recent funk, they hadn't allowed three straight running backs to top 100 yards rushing since 2004 and hadn't allowed three straight running backs to top 100 yards rushing and score a touchdown against them since 2003. Lest we forget the week before Howling registered his first career 100-yard game against the Vikes, Redskins rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III rushed for 138 yards and two touchdowns against them.
Through their first five games of the season, the Vikings allowed an impressive 3.2 yards-per-carry – the second-best rate in the NFL – and did not permit a single running back touchdown. Altogether through five games they were ceding 78.6 rushing yards per game and had allowed just one rushing touchdown (to Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford).
However, over the course of the last four games the Vikings have allowed 4.6 yards per carry. Their yards-per-game allowed has more than doubled to 165.8 yards per game. And they have allowed six more rushing touchdowns.
So, yeah, the Vikings' run defense is in just as much of a slump as their pass offense. If there were injuries to the front seven it might be somewhat understandable, but there aren't.
Head coach Leslie Frazier kicked off his Monday press conference a few days ago with a rather scathing assessment of his team's ability to stop the run lately.
"Defensively, our run defense doesn’t resemble the type of run defense we’re capable of playing" Frazier said. "We have to go back to the drawing board and come up with some ways to defend the run better than what we’re doing. We’ve got to look at some things and try to get things corrected and really almost start from square one when it comes to our rush defense. It’s not up to par by any means."
The Vikings' run defense "drawing board" had better elicit some answers in short order – not so much for this weekend's game against the pass-happy Lions, but for what lies ahead of them after the bye week. Three of the Vikings' final six games come against offenses that can and will run the ball all day if allowed, with two games against the Bears and one against the Texans. Matt Forte and Arian Foster are poised to pick up where Martin and Lynch left off unless something is done; and if they do, the Vikings won't have a chance of winning those games.
They'll likely look better stopping the run against the Lions this Sunday. Detroit ranks 22nd in rushing offense at 103.6 yards per game and in their first matchup with the Vikings this season, back in Week 4, they managed only 55 yards on 20 carries.
Even so, the Vikings would be wise not to relax if they find run defense success for one week against Mikel Leshoure and the Lions. Whatever the answer, be it execution, scheme, or a combination of both (which seems most likely) the Vikings stunning and sudden struggles against the run cannot be glossed over.
Bo Mitchell is the VP of Content at SportsData
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell
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