VikesCentric is written by Twin Cities football writers Bo Mitchell and Patrick Donnelly of SportsData, and Ted Carlson of TST Media. They are Twin Cities-based Vikings and NFL experts who crunch numbers, watch video and tell you what's on their minds.

Posts about Bears

VikesCentric: Vikings face long odds if they fall to 0-2

Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: September 13, 2013 - 9:21 PM

There aren't many outside of Winter Park who seriously expect the Minnesota Vikings to win on Sunday. You know it's true.

In fact, given their history at Soldier Field, one has to wonder just how confident the Vikings themselves are of coming away with a win in Chicago this Sunday. Obviously, not a single person employed by the Vikings would ever admit such a thing on the record, but it is human nature to have such doubts. A look at the track record tells us why.

It's perfectly logical to question the Vikings' ability to win in Chicago – where the Bears have won the last five in a row and 11 of the last 12. That's an unmistakable trend, folks. Yes, the Vikings beat the Bears the last time these two teams squared off in Week 14 last season, but that was at Mall of America Field.

Vikings vs. Bears in Chicago
Year Bears Vikings
2012 28 10
2011 39 10
2010 27 13
2009 36 30
2008 48 41
2007 31 34
2006 23 13
2005 28 3
2004 24 14
2003 13 10
2002 27 23
2001 17 10

The Bears have defeated the Vikings by an average score of 28.4 to 17.6 over the last 12 games in the Chicago. My Richfield math tells me that's a double-digit difference on average. That's not promising for the Purple.

As the table shows, the Vikings' lone win in the Windy City in the last 12 years came in 2007. They needed overtime as well as 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns from a rookie named Adrian Peterson to win that day. They might need a similar Herculean effort from the MVP to do it again – which of course is never out of the question when it comes to Peterson.

Regardless of what Adrian does, Christian Ponder needs to play better and the defense needs to figure out a way to stop Matt Forte or he'll do the same thing Reggie Bush did to them in Week 1.

Moreover, if the Vikings are serious about their playoff chances – and I have every reason to believe that they are -- they'll have to buck the odds and figure out a way to win. If you've been paying attention to football at all this past week you have undoubtedly heard the daunting statistic about 0-2 teams and the postseason: since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 0-2 teams have gone on to make the playoffs only 11.6 percent of the time.

Of course, starting 0-2 on the road isn't the worst thing in the world. I think the Vikings will likely lose this Sunday, but I also expect them to win their next two games against the Cleveland Browns (at home) and Pittsburgh Steelers (in London). I'm guessing the percentage of teams that start 2-2 and make the playoffs is considerably higher than 11.6.

Should Vikings fans be concerned if they fall to 0-2 this Sunday? Of course. Should they throw in the towel on 2013 if they lose? Absolutely not.

Bo Mitchell is the Vice President of Content at SportsData

You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

VikesCentric: Harvin package exceeds expectations

Posted by: Ted Carlson Updated: March 11, 2013 - 2:05 PM

Well done, Rick Spielman.

We'll likely never have all of the insider details around the Vikings' choice to trade Percy Harvin, but if it absolutely had to happen, the Purple did well in netting a sizable return for the dynamic, multi-faceted All-Pro.

Harvin brings a different skill set to the table than a typical NFL wide receiver, but prior to a deal being done, we still had to gauge his trade value against recent history. A few weeks ago, I told fellow VikesCentric bloggers Bo Mitchell and Patrick Donnelly that people were crazy to think we'd even get a first-round pick for Percy.

My evidence:

>>In March 2012, the Bears acquired Brandon Marshall from the Dolphins in exchange for two third-round picks.

>>In October 2011, the Rams acquired Brandon Lloyd from the Broncos for a conditional sixth-round pick (turned into a fifth). Lloyd led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010.

>>In April 2011, the Jets acquired Santonio Holmes from the Steelers for a fifth-round pick. Holmes had 79 catches and 1,248 yards in 2010.

>>In March 2010, the Dolphins acquired Marshall from the Broncos in exchange for two second-round picks.

>>In March 2010, the Ravens acquired Anquan Boldin from the Cardinals in exchange for a third-round and a fourth-round pick.

Again, I understand that Harvin possesses a unique package of talents beyond just being a pass-catcher and is still headed into his prime years. But he also carries off-field baggage and a reported desire to sign a $16.5 million/year contract (or something close to that) in the very near future.

Given all that came with Harvin (good and bad) and given recent NFL history with notable wide receiver trades, Vikings fans should at least be pleased that the squad received a first-rounder (2013), a seventh-rounder (2013), and a mid-round pick (2014).

VikesCentric: Vikings looking for a rare victory outdoors

Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: January 3, 2013 - 5:35 PM

The Vikings are scheduled to break ground on their fancy new stadium sometime in 2013 – a stadium that will likely have a retractable roof of some kind. That obviously means some of the games at the new joint will be played outdoors.

 
Suggestion: the Vikings might want to work on their "outdoor game" between now and the projected opening of the new digs in 2016 because, well, their record outside of domed stadiums hasn't been so hot the last several seasons. Another suggestion: this might be a good week to begin whatever it is they have to do in order to find a winning formula outdoors.
 
The Vikings are 5-15 in their last 20 outdoor road games. Throw in the snowy game played at TCF Bank Stadium on Dec. 20, 2010 against the Bears and they are 5-16 in their last 21 outdoor games. Of those games, 10 were played with a game-time temp of less than 50 degrees. The Vikings won only three of these "cold" games: once against the Eagles (Joe Webb's finest moment) in December of 2010 and twice against the Redskins (in 2011 and 2010).
 
Oh sure, the Vikings will probably close the roof at the new stadium if the weather gets inclement or the temperature falls below, say, 50 degrees. That's what retractable roofs are for. However, they won't be able to close the roof at Lambeau on Saturday night.
 
Here's where those of us who are old enough to remember might start waxing nostalgic about the glory days at the old Met when opposing teams used to dread coming to play here in the cold. Bud Grant banned space heaters on the sidelines. The players didn't wear gloves… heck, some didn't even bother with long sleeves. Many teams were psychologically defeated the minute they stepped off the plane.
 
Have the Vikings gone soft?
 
I wouldn't ever go that far. These are tough guys capable of enduring all kinds of pain, punishment and uncomfortable conditions. NFL players are, by and large, anything but soft.
 
However, there is something to be said for not being used to playing on grass or overcoming cold, wind and precipitation. The Vikings played 11 indoor games this season. If you don't play outside very often, it's hard to get quickly acclimated to things like bad footing and wind once the conditions get a little sketchy.
 
Yes, the Packers will be playing in the cold on Saturday night as well. The game time temperature is projected to be in the 20's. The Packers players are, for the most part, more used to those kinds of conditions, but it's not like it's always 20 degrees and snowy on the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field. We all know it can actually be pretty nice in terms of football weather in this part of the world through much of October, oftentimes longer. Bottom line: the cold and wind will affect both teams.
 
The numbers don't lie, though. The Vikings' record is abysmal outdoors. Moreover, they have won just once in their last six visits to Green Bay.
 
Leslie Frazier apparently has the troops practicing this week with the doors open and the air conditioning cranked at the Winter Park practice facility to replicate some of the cold conditions they'll be dealing with on Saturday. That's great, but it's going to take more than that to overcome the malaise the Vikes generally find themselves in when braving the elements.
 
As if it's not enough they have to contend with the game's best quarterback and play in a hostile environment against a team that rarely loses at home, the Vikes have to overcome this losing trend in games played outdoors. And make no mistake: 5-16 is a strong trend. Vikings fans better hope Frazier devises a game plan for winning outdoors in the cold between now and Saturday night.
 
Who knows? He just might. Not many people thought the Vikings would win their last four games of the season, but they found a way. If the Vikings have proven anything this season, it's "expect the unexpected."
 
 
Bo Mitchell is the VP of Content at SportsData
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

VikesCentric: Playoffs?!? You kidding me? Playoffs?

Posted by: Ted Carlson Updated: December 30, 2012 - 9:22 PM

Four weeks ago, the Vikings hit a low point in their season. The December 2 loss in Green Bay left the Vikings at 6-6, and with four losses over their previous five games, it appeared as though an improbable run from 3-13 to the playoffs was over - just another crushed dream for the Minnesota sports scene.

But a funny thing happened while fans were punching Christian Ponder's ticket out of town, calling for the entire coaching staff to be fired, and wondering what wide receiver the Vikings might target with their top-15 pick... the Purple won their final four games and earned the NFC's sixth seed. Amazing.

How refreshingly wonderful does this feel? Over the last four weeks, the Vikings stepped up, defied odds, exceeded expectations, and ripped off wins over the Bears, Rams, Texans, and Packers. Even the most grumbly, curmudgeonly, passive-aggressive Vikings fan should be all smiles right now.

Sunday's win over the Packers was one of the sweetest victories in my recent memory, especially since I'm one of the many Minnesota sports fans often consuming by the pessimistic belief that our teams are somehow doomed to fail and slap us in the face. Every Aaron Rodgers counter-punch - and there were many in the second half; #12 was brilliant - threatened to end the Vikings' season, but MVP* Adrian Peterson, the much-maligned Ponder, and the entire team took the punishment, got off the canvas, and ultimately delivered the victory.

(*There should be zero doubt across the country that AD is the 2012 MVP. I have nothing against Peyton Manning, but he joined a team that won a playoff game last season thanks to an excellent defense and a strong running game. I can name 5-10 quarterbacks who might have led the 2012 Broncos to the playoffs. Replace Peterson with any other running back in the NFL and the Vikings aren't in the postseason.)

In the biggest game of his young career, Ponder may have secured his space atop the 2013 depth chart. We've all been pining for him to perform exactly like he did on Sunday - work off of Peterson's lead, keep the chains moving, protect the ball, and occasionally step up and make a big play or three. I'm still in shock that the Vikings completed four passes of 20-plus yards in one game, including the 65-yard strike to Jarius Wright**. Through 15 games, the Vikings owned a mere 24 completions of 20-plus yards, by far the worst in the NFL.

(**As an aside, this impressive four-game win streak and push to the playoffs has come without Percy Harvin, the team's MVP during the first half of this season. It will be interesting to see how this plays into what should be an interesting offseason when Percy could receive a contract extension, be traded, or begrudgingly play out his contract.) 

Ponder has deserved every bit of criticism he has received for his poor on-field play this season, and he also deserves praise for improving in recent weeks and for the win over the Packers. No matter what happens in the playoffs, Ponder's recent play should be a confidence boost as he heads into a critical offseason and a make-or-break 2013 campaign.

The Vikings will be heavy underdogs when they head into Lambeau this coming weekend, and frankly, a victory would simply be extra frosting on what currently feels like a pretty sweet and fulfilling season. Then again, the Purple are peaking at the right time with four straight wins and coulda, shoulda won in Green Bay on December 2. Anything can happen in the postseason; just ask the 2005 Steelers or the 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings.

But let's start worrying about the playoff game later this week. Take a moment to bask in the fleeting glow of a Minnesota sports team rising to the occasion and delivering a winning performance (and four weeks of winning performances) beyond our expectations.

VikesCentric: Parsing the playoff picture

Posted by: Patrick Donnelly Updated: December 21, 2012 - 2:16 AM

Coming off a 3-13 season, that last thing any of us expected to be doing in Week 16 is discussing the Vikings' playoff chances, but here we are. As you all know, the Vikings are 8-6 and currently hold the sixth and final seed in the NFC Playoffs. Thus, if the season ended today, the Vikes would be in.

However, the season doesn't end today. It ends next Sunday. And strange as it might sound, the Vikings could win their final two games and still find themselves on the outside looking in.

That's right, the Vikings don't control their own destiny, for reasons that are probably far too convoluted to get into in a blog post. (It boils down to conference record – because the Vikings play an AFC team in Houston on Sunday, they have only one more chance to improve their NFC record, while most of the other teams in the 8-6 logjam play two more NFC foes.)

So who should Vikings fans root for this week? It's pretty easy to figure, actually, because most of the teams the Vikings need to lose are facing opponents who are non-factors in the NFC playoff race. The biggest question is the Niners-Seahawks game in Seattle. Vikings fans should be rooting for the 49ers to win that one, because even if the Niners lose out, their 10-5-1 record would be a half-game better than the Vikings' best possible record of 10-6. Thus, hope Seattle goes in the tank – just keep in mind that Seattle has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Purple by virtue of its win on Nov. 4, so if Minnesota hopes to leap-frog the Seahawks, it'll need to win out and have the Seahawks lose home games to the Niners and Rams. That's about as likely to happen as the networks to eschew their standard "fish tossing" shot at the world-famous Pike Place Fish Market on any given week. Meaning, not bloody likely.

We'll sort through the various scenarios in greater detail next week. For this weekend, just pull for the Purple, and pull for the Giants to lose at Baltimore, the Cowboys to lose to the Saints, the Redskins to lose at Philadelphia, and the Bears to lose at Arizona. Then we can pull out the calculators and slide rules and figure out what needs to happen in Week 17 for the Vikings to return to the playoffs.

Patrick Donnelly is a Senior Editor at SportsData and a contributor to the 2012 Vikings Yearbook. He's covered the Vikings for FOXSportsNorth.com, Viking Update and the Associated Press. Follow him on Twitter at @donnelly612.

VikesCentric: Adrian already in rarified air

Posted by: Bo Mitchell Updated: December 11, 2012 - 6:45 PM

With three games to go, Adrian Peterson currently has the 50th-highest single-season rushing total in NFL history, and he continues to climb the list with every run.

 
Peterson has already admitted he's thinking about the record of 2,105 yards set by Eric Dickerson of the 1984 Los Angeles Rams. All he needs is 169 yards per game over the final three games to break Dickerson's record – which, when you consider the fact he's averaged 165 over the last five games, seems remarkably within reach.
 
His offensive line, which is also focused on making some history via Peterson, seems eager to do anything it can to help him get there. Listening to center John Sullivan on KFAN Tuesday morning, you'd think they might be more pumped up about getting the record than Peterson.
 
Of course, as they have been doing all season, Peterson and his line will be attempting to make a little history over the next three games against eight and nine-man defensive fronts. That's not going to change regardless of how Christian Ponder performs. The loss of Percy Harvin made the Vikings offense even more one-dimensional than it already was – making Peterson's exploits all the more astounding. In addition, the fact he's doing all this less than a year after having his knee surgically reconstructed is nothing short of unprecedented.
 
Teams know Peterson is going to run. They watch film of his runs and then scheme to stop them, paying comically-little attention to the Vikes' passing game. And yet, all Adrian does is pile up one 100-yard game after another.
 
The superlatives have run out.
 
In an effort to gain some perspective on just how incredible Peterson's run at 2,000 yards has been given the complete and utter lack of a passing threat, I turned to the statistical record and drummed up some pretty compelling data.
 
Below is a list of the 28 seasons in which a player has rushed for 1,700 yards. Yes, I know Peterson is only at 1,600, but I think we can all agree he'll get at least 100 more this year. Besides, I didn't want a list of 50. I have included each player's average yards per carry and, as a means of measuring the help he gets from his team's passing attack, the average yards per pass attempt of each player's team.
 
Keep in mind that Peterson is currently averaging 6.0 yards per carry and Ponder is currently averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
 
Player
Rushing yards
Year
Team
YPC
Team's Passing YPA
Eric Dickerson
2,105
1984
Los Angeles Rams
5.6
6.7
Jamal Lewis
2,066
2003
Baltimore Ravens
5.3
6.1
Barry Sanders
2,053
1997
Detroit Lions
6.1
6.7
Terrell Davis
2,008
1998
Denver Broncos
5.1
7.8
Chris Johnson
2,006
2009
Tennessee Titans
5.6
6.5
O.J. Simpson
2,003
1973
Buffalo Bills
6.0
5.8
Earl Campbell
1,934
1980
Houston Oilers
5.2
7.1
Ahman Green
1,883
2003
Green Bay Packers
5.3
7.1
Barry Sanders
1,883
1994
Detroit Lions
5.7
6.7
Shaun Alexander
1,880
2005
Seattle Seahawks
5.1
7.7
Jim Brown
1,863
1963
Cleveland Browns
6.4
7.6
Tiki Barber
1,860
2005
New York Giants
5.2
6.7
Ricky Williams
1,853
2002
Miami Dolphins
4.8
6.7
Walter Payton
1,852
1977
Chicago Bears
5.5
6.8
Jamal Anderson
1,846
1998
Atlanta Falcons
4.5
8.8
Eric Dickerson
1,821
1986
Los Angeles Rams
4.5
5.9
O.J. Simpson
1,817
1975
Buffalo Bills
5.5
7.5
LaDainian Tomlinson
1,815
2006
San Diego Chargers
5.2
7.3
Eric Dickerson
1,808
1983
Los Angeles Rams
4.6
7.0
Larry Johnson
1,789
2006
Kansas City Chiefs
4.3
7.2
Emmitt Smith
1,773
1995
Dallas Cowboys
4.7
7.6
Adrian Peterson
1,760
2008
Minnesota Vikings
4.8
7.1
Marcus Allen
1,759
1985
Los Angeles Raiders
4.6
6.9
Larry Johnson
1,750
2005
Kansas City Chiefs
5.2
7.9
Terrell Davis
1,750
1997
Denver Broncos
4.7
7.2
Gerald Riggs
1,719
1985
Atlanta Falcons
4.3
6.5
Emmitt Smith
1,713
1992
Dallas Cowboys
4.6
7.3
Edgerrin James
1,709
2000
Indianapolis Colts
4.4
7.7
 
As you can see from the table above, Peterson is already honing in on pretty exclusive company.
 
·         Only three players have ever rushed for 1,700 yards while averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
·         Only three players have ever rushed for 1,700 yards while their team averaged less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
·         Most incredibly, only one player (O.J. Simpson in 1973) has ever rushed for 1,700 yards while averaging as many or more yards per carry as his team averaged per pass attempt.
 
In other words, Simpson's 1973 Bills also had no pass threat for opposing defenses to consider.
 
The numbers don't lie. Regardless of whether he breaks the record or even gets to 2,000 yards, if those yards per attempt averages hold up over the course of the next three games, Peterson's season should be regarded as one of the most impressive ever by a running back.
 
 
Bo Mitchell is the VP of Content at SportsData
You can follow Bo on Twitter at @Bo_Mitchell

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT