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Michael Rand started RandBall with hopes that he could keep lies from conquering the minds of the weak. So far, he's only succeeded in using the word "redacted" a lot. He welcomes suggestions, news tips, links of pure genius, and pictures of pets in Halloween costumes here, though he already knows he will regret that last part.
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Posts about Target Field
Friday (Was the Twins shakeup really that big of a shakeup?) edition: Wha' Happened?
Posted by: Michael Rand Updated: October 5, 2012 - 9:41 AM
On the face of it, the Twins' coaching moves on Thursday seemed quite startling. When you break it down a bit more, however, maybe it wasn't as big or shocking as it looked?
That's the idea we're warming up to, for these reasons:
*It seems like a stunner primarily in the context of what the Twins typically do. They are loyal. They believe in the big-picture, in trusting the method and the people in charge of running it. If the vast majority of teams had back-to-back seasons like the Twins just experienced, massive changes would have been expected – even with a recent track record of success. Just think locally: Denny Green and Brad Childress were fired mid-season the very year after leading the Vikings to an NFC title game. Ditto for Flip Saunders with the Timberwolves. He brought the Wolves to eight consecutive playoff appearances, including a trip to the West finals in 2003-04, but was fired with almost a .500 record in the middle of 2004-05. In baseball, back-to-back seasons like the ones the Twins just had are typically detrimental to a manager. According to research by 1500’s Tom Pelissero, since 1961, not counting expansion teams, only other six managers have survived back-to-back 95-loss seasons and kept their jobs.
*The guys who were outright fired – bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek, third base coach Steve Liddle, first base coach Jerry White and head trainer Rick McWane – do not make up the core brain trust of the on-field staff. Scott Ullger and Joe Vavra were reassigned. Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson were untouched. And the guys rumored to be coming in – Bobby Cuellar, Tom Brunansky, Gene Glynn and perhaps Paul Molitor – are all from within the organization to varying degrees, suggesting that while they would bring a fresh set of eyes and perspectives, they will still be preaching the organizational philosophies.
*Now, that’s not to say continuity is a bad thing. The Twins had a great run of regular-season success in the 2000s with many of the same principles they presumably want to employ now. In our honest opinion, Gardenhire and Anderson deserve a chance to turn things around because of that track record. But we will say this: bringing in Cuellar and Glynn would make it clear the Twins have available in-house interim options at pitching coach and manager if things continue to go south next season and a mid-year move is warranted.
That would be the true shake-up. If the Twins were a house, Thursday amounted to rearranging some furniture and re-painting a few rooms, which feels like a major renovation by Twins standards.
Time will tell if a full remodel is necessary – and if it happens.
Thursday (Three things the Twins must address) edition: Wha' Happened?
Posted by: Michael Rand Updated: October 4, 2012 - 9:42 AM
Three areas the Twins must address in the offseason:
STARTING PITCHING (YEAH, NO KIDDING)
Everybody knows this, but to recap 2012: Twins starters had the worst ERA in the American League (5.40), which is perhaps the main reason their record only improved by three games over 2011 despite tangible gains in offense (701 runs vs. 619 a year ago) and run differential (54 runs better in 2012 than 2011). They were either completely out of a lot of games early or scrambling hard to at least make things close. The bullpen posted a respectable 3.77 ERA (9th in the AL), and the number perhaps could have been even better if guys weren’t overworked and pressed into long-relief situations.
We all also know, of course, that you don’t just press a button and out pops a capable five-man rotation. The Twins thought they could do that in 2012 with Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis and Nick Blackburn – crossing their fingers that the upside in all of them would emerge while ignoring or hoping against the downside that crept in with all of them (Pavano is getting older, Baker is injury-prone, Liriano can’t be trusted and Marquis and Blackburn are probably marginal fifth starters at best). So what do you do in 2013?
Well, Scott Diamond should be written in pen. What else? Good question. In a realistically ideal world, you would take a look at this list of potential free agents and find one guy with upside and sign him to a medium-sized two-year contract. You would find one more up-and-comer who is proven to be major league-ready in a trade (more on that in a minute). And you would have an open competition for the rest of the spots out of Sam Deduno (intriguing because of his stuff), Brian Duensing (still decent overall career numbers as a starter), Kyle Gibson (assuming he is ready) and maybe even Scott Baker on a reduced one-year comeback contract. Blackburn? A last, last, resort. That’s a rotation, potentially, with some arms and upside. It might not be a 90-win rotation, but you could see it being an 80-win rotation, which is the next step back to respectability for the Twins.
DENARD SPAN
Baseball Reference says Denard Span had the highest WAR on the Twins (4.8) in 2012. That’s better than Joe Mauer or Josh Willingham. He had a nice bounceback year, though he still isn’t the player he was in 2009 when he walked 70 times and had an OBP approaching .400 (this year it was .342). As good and dependable as a healthy Span can be, he is also the Twins' best trade asset. And in the offseason, you have to pull the trigger on a trade for that above-mentioned major-league ready starting pitcher.
Outfield is an area of organizational depth with Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia having strong 2012 seasons in the minors. They might not be ready right away in 2013, but outfield is a spot where the Twins can piece things together. You lose outfield range, but you might improve infield defense (again, more on that in a minute). Keep Josh Willingham in left. He’s probably a better DH, but as long as you have Mauer and Doumit, Willingham won’t be a full-time DH. Ben Revere plays center. Right field becomes a mix of Chris Parmelee, Darin Mastroianni, a prospect (when ready) and perhaps even Trevor Plouffe.
INFIELD DEFENSE IS THE SILENT KILLER
Here’s what we think of Plouffe now that 2012 is done: We like his bat enough to see him hit 500 times in a season. He can anchor the lower part of an order and give it real depth. Fielding? We’re not sure he’s ever going to lock down one position. He might be the kind of guy best suited to get 70 starts at third, 50 in the outfield and another handful at DH. That would be a partial help in solving infield defense, if the Twins were willing to sacrifice offense for defense at third in the non-Plouffe starts there. But the overall infield defense is a mess. The Twins made 107 errors in 2012 (11th in the AL). Of those, 78 were infield errors. That’s more than in 2011 (73), when Tsuyoshi Nishioka and a host of others made a mess of things. We didn’t think it was possible to have a worse infield D (at least in terms of errors) in 2012, but it happened. For perspective, the 2002 Twins committed 74 errors as an entire team. This year’s White Sox had just 38 infield errors – fewer than half the number the Twins committed. Maybe they need Jamey Carroll to lock down shortstop for a while longer. Maybe Pedro Florimon is the answer. Whatever the case, it is a fundamental flaw that silently accounted for numerous runs.
One year ago today, the Twins declared: "We will rally."
Posted by: Michael Rand Updated: October 2, 2012 - 3:11 PMA colleague was digging through some Star Tribune archives and found a full-page advertisement the Twins took out in the Star Tribune (and presumably other outlets) Sunday, Oct. 2, 2011.
It was a fairly benign advertisement, reflecting on the few positives of 2011 and thanking fans for coming to games. It mentioned injuries, though not exactly as an excuse. Most of all, it had a tone of accountability -- and a tone that things would get better quickly.
"But ultimately, this season failed to live up to the high standards of baseball for which the Minnesota Twins organization has become known. And we are just as disappointed as you are. But we promise to use this disappointment to motivate us to a better 2012. We will rally."
Those last three words, "We will rally," also appeared in large print as the headline, so to speak, of the entire ad.
A year later, the Twins have improved in some areas. The free agent signings of Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were somewhere between good and fantastic. Joe Mauer is back to being Joe Mauer. Justin Morneau stayed healthy and had productive stretches. Trevor Plouffe had a power binge. Denard Span and Ben Revere gave the Twins far more than they did last season.
And yet, here we are, with the Twins headed for another 60-something victory season. The pitching is a mess. And the organizational tone? Well, it seems different. The notion of a quick fix seems like a thing of the past. An example from today's story:
"Our best pitching is low [in the minors], and that's not good," Twins General Manager Terry Ryan said.
The brass is being realistic and setting up not for a total rebuild, but for a slow process toward winning again. It's probably the right message. But it does stand in stark contrast to what was offered a year ago.
The Twins surely had the best intentions that they would, indeed, rally. It just hasn't happened, and now they are faced with reality. Here is the full ad, if you care to have a look:
TFD: All-Star Game is coming! Wait, everyone already knew that.
Posted by: Michael Rand Updated: August 29, 2012 - 5:04 PMThe worst-kept secret in baseball is official: Target Field will play host to the 2014 All-Star Game.
In all honesty: going to an All-Star Game in any sport has never been high on our sports bucket list, but if it had to be one thing it would be the MLB game. As such, there really isn't much of an excuse now. We pretty much need to find a way to get there.
Your thoughts? Are you eager to pony up hundreds for the privilege of attending this game, or is this one you can skip with no remorse.
Wednesday (It felt like the smallest crowd in Target Field history) edition: Wha' Happened?
Posted by: Michael Rand Updated: August 29, 2012 - 8:34 AM
Small. Small enough to provide a startling contrast between now and just two seasons ago (that picture is from the first regular-season game ever at the ballpark). Small enough that vast swaths of empty seats were easily spotted. Small enough to make us wonder what next year will be like if the losing continues.
The Twins offense looked lethargic, getting just one hit in the first six innings and slapping too many choppers and slow rollers to count. There was the briefest of flickers in the ninth inning, but the rally and the fans were extinguished quickly.
There is no perfect precedent to say what will happen in future seasons at Target Field in terms of attendance. Cleveland, which fielded a consistent winner after opening its new ballpark, had eight consecutive seasons averaging 39,000 fans or more. Then the Indians started losing, and it dropped to 32K and 21K in the next two seasons -- a sharp drop, to be sure. It's never bounced back beyond 29,000 since then, despite a playoff season. San Francisco has never gone below 35K in its new park despite some rough seasons. Pittsburgh never really got the boost from its park despite all its beauty because for almost all the time there the Pirates have been awful.
The Twins had to compete with back-to-school thoughts and the State Fair on Tuesday. The Mariners aren't the most interesting opponent, either. But they couldn't sell the product to 30,000 people on a gorgeous summer night. Unless the product improves, we could be reading "smallest crowd in Target Field history" a lot more more this season and beyond.
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