Michael Rand started RandBall with hopes that he could convince the world to love jumpsuits as much as he does. So far, he's only succeeded in using the word "redacted" a lot. He welcomes suggestions, news tips, links of pure genius, and pictures of pets in Halloween costumes here, though he already knows he will regret that last part.

Follow Randball on Twitter

Data model ranks Rubio, Love as the two worst qualifying players in NBA in 2012-13 season

Posted by: Michael Rand under Wolves news Updated: February 6, 2014 - 4:32 PM

A paper will be presented at the increasingly famous MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference later this month that summarizes methodology and early results from a new basketball statistic called Expected Possession Value.

One of the authors, Kirk Goldsberry, wrote about it on Grantland, and you can summarize it thusly: EPV seeks to place a value on every single movement of every single player every second they are on the court.

The abstract of the paper provides this:

"We propose a framework for using player-tracking data to assign a point value to each moment of a possession by computing how many points the offense is expected to score by the end of the possession, a quantity we call expected possession value (EPV). EPV allows analysts to evaluate every decision made during a  basketball game – whether it is to pass, dribble, or shoot – opening the door for a multitude of new metrics and analyses of basketball that quantify value in terms of points."

It is somewhere between fascinating and terrifying. We plan to write a little more about it for print tomorrow. Basically, as Goldsberry writes, "For years, we have talked about 'advanced stats' when what we were really talking about was slightly savvier arithmetic. That’s going to change, whether we want it to or not."

This could be the next revolution, and as it pertains to the 2012-13 Timberwolves and their two core players going forward, it is not pretty.

The number assigned to EPVA (EPV Added) amounts to the number of "points added" by a particular player in relation to an average player, as defined by what they do every time they touch the ball. Chris Paul has the best number, at 3.48. That means by being Chris Paul instead of an average player, he adds 3.48 points per game.

There were 327 players last season who had the requisite number of "qualifying possessions" to be charted. The player with the worst EPVA of those 327 was Ricky Rubio, at minus-3.33. The player with the second-worst EPVA was Kevin Love, at minus-2.38. (The top 10 and bottom 10 are located in one of the "tables" in that link.

Some other players we consider to be very good -- Russell Westbrook and Paul George among them -- were also in the bottom 10. And let's remember that Love had a largely ineffective and injury-marred season and is almost certainly much better in that number this year. As for Rubio? Well, as Goldsberry writes:

Rubio owes most of his “points lost” to his unfortunate shooting skills. Relative to league averages, he struggles to make shots in every part of the scoring area. In terms of EPV “over replacement,” almost every jumper Rubio decides to take is a proposition less valuable than if almost any other similar player took that exact same shot.

Goldsberry doesn't claim EPV is the end-all, be-all statistic. Rather, he comes from a point of curiosity and love of data -- and he asserts that the contribution of EPV "remains unknown." We encourage you to read the entire Grantland piece if this all interests you.

But the methodology and sheer data involved are frightening in both scope and what they could mean for the Wolves' point guard. 

ADVERTISEMENT

Post By Category

Arts (1) Books (1)
Movies (3) Music (6)
Hobbies (1) Fishing (1)
Society (3) Crime (1)
Sports (523) Baseball (1)
Professional baseball (786) Basketball (13)
College basketball (6) Football (1)
College football (118) Professional football (560)
Technology (1) Food and drink (14)
Politics (1) Transportation (1)
Employment (1) Career development (1)
Cooking (2) Pets (1)
Vikings (1075) Men (3)
Games (1) Gambling (1)
Commercial (1) Animals (3)
Dogs (3) Gripes (1)
Newspapers (1) Beer (6)
Minnesota wine retailers (1) Wine retail + marketing (1)
Bad driving (1) Commuting (1)
High School Sports (1) Family activities (1)
Style (2) Pregnancy (1)
Car buying (1) Retirement (1)
Shopping (1) Chickens (2)
Fruit and berries (1) Weather (1)
Internet (2) Twitter (2)
Video games (2) Web pick (1)
YouTube (1) Birds in the backyard (1)
Business trends (2) Loopholes (1)
Problems on the job (1) The rich get richer (1)
Airlines (1) Midwest getaways (1)
Road trips (1) Skiing (1)
Travel deals (1) Wisconsin (3)
Gopher road games (1) TCF Bank Stadium (1)
NCAA: football (124) Basketball on TV (2)
Gophers coaches (1) Frozen Four (11)
North Dakota (1) College hockey (20)
Fantasy football (12) Golf (84)
Minnesota state tournaments (20) Preps (8)
Soccer (93) WNBA (16)
Wild news (8) Wolves news (393)
NFC (2) Super Bowl (1)
Vikings coaches (1) Behind the scenes (3)
Celebrities (1) Dance (1)
Local TV and radio (2) Ex-players (1)
Injury report (2) Baseball wisdom (1)
Target Field (262) Twins fans (807)
Twins game coverage (17) Twins management (3)
Twins offense (1) Twins pitching (3)
NBA playoffs (1) Wolves draft news (1)
Wolves guards (1) Wolves players (9)
Values and morals (2) Miscreants (1)
Wild coaching (67) Wild game coverage (3)
Wild off-season news (1) Wild player moves (3)
Wild pregame skate (1) Wild trade news (1)
Movies (1) Buffalo Lake-Hector (1)
Ortonville (2) Brad Childress (1)
Stillwater (1) Television (2)
NHL news (97) Outdoors Women (1)
Olympics (2) Olympic hockey (1)
Glen Perkins (1) Health + Beauty (1)
Beer (2) Wine (1)
Public safety (1) Gophers (203)
Pen Pals (1)
Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT