Rand: Some analysis is worth analyzing

  • Article by: MICHAEL RAND , Star Tribune
  • Updated: May 11, 2014 - 9:59 PM
hide

Talking heads — that’s Mel Kiper farthest left — become quite prominent before and during the NFL draft, and after it they hand out their grades. A look back at their determinations seems appropriate.

Photo: Jason Szenes • New York Times,

CameraStar Tribune photo galleries

Cameraview larger

The NFL draft has come and gone, but that doesn’t mean we are at the end of the constant chatter or speculation.

If only we were that lucky.

Instead, we have entered that period of time when everyone must rush to declare winners and losers and immediately declare how each team fared with its picks.

How can anyone really know? Well, they can’t — and that’s the beauty of the instant draft “grade.” Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN has already declared this Vikings draft to be a B-minus.

If only Rick Spielman had studied harder and applied himself a little more.

Far more instructive is looking back at past drafts and past grades to see how things that were immediately declared actually played out.

We’re not picking on Kiper here, because he does a good job, but we did go back and look at how he graded Vikings drafts from 2006-2011, years in which we now have a pretty good idea of how things turned out. Here are some highlights:

2006: Kiper called Chad Greenway a “very good pick” at No. 17 overall, which has proven true. But he also said Tarvaris Jackson “has a chance to be Vikings’ future quarterback. His grade: C+. Our grade of his grade: B-.

2007: Adrian Peterson was called a “potential franchise running back.” You think? Sidney Rice in the second round was a “great value pick,” which was accurate. But Kiper also said, “Aundrae Allison spent time on the Big Board in 2006 and was a good pick in the fifth round; Rufus Alexander was a solid sixth-round pick.” They didn’t quite pan out. Kiper’s grade: B+. Our grade of his grade: B.

2008: This might be Kiper’s biggest miss. He wrote, “I had safety Tyrell Johnson going in the first round, so to get him in Round 2 (43rd overall) is a great pick because Johnson has big-time skills.” He also praised the pick of QB John David Booty in the fifth round. Neither really worked out. Kiper’s grade: B. Our grade of his grade: C-.

2009: He said the Percy Harvin pick “could end up being a good selection,” but he was skeptical because of character issues. He also praised third-round pick Asher Allen. Kiper’s grade: C+. Our grade of his grade: B-.

2010: Kiper was down on this draft, questioning the picks of Chris Cook and Toby Gerhart while calling Everson Griffen “inconsistent.” He was spot-on with Cook, to be sure. Kiper’s grade: C-. Our grade of Kiper’s grade: B.

2011: Kiper said the Vikings reached for Christian Ponder at No. 12 and got good value with Kyle Rudolph in the second round. He pretty much nailed it. Kiper’s grade: C+. Our grade of Kiper’s grade: A-.

 

MICHAEL RAND

 

  • related content

  • Two Tipsheet

    Sunday May 11, 2014

    TIPSHEETCompiled by Kevin BertelsKNOW THISThe Wild seemed short of its opponent in athletic ability early in each playoff series. The...

  • get related content delivered to your inbox

  • manage my email subscriptions

ADVERTISEMENT

Toronto 2 Bottom 8th Inning
Baltimore 5
Washington 4 Bottom 9th Inning
Atlanta 0
Miami 6 Bottom 8th Inning
NY Mets 5
NY Yankees 0 Top 8th Inning
Tampa Bay 0
Cincinnati 0 Bottom 7th Inning
Chicago Cubs 0
Chicago WSox 3 Top 7th Inning
Kansas City 0
Cleveland 1 Top 7th Inning
Houston 2
Detroit 6 Top 7th Inning
Minnesota 4
Los Angeles 2 Bottom 4th Inning
Colorado 2
San Francisco 0 Top 2nd Inning
Arizona 0
Seattle - H. Iwakuma 9:05 PM
LA Angels - M. Shoemaker
Philadelphia - J. Williams 9:10 PM
San Diego - A. Cashner
Philadelphia 6 3rd Qtr
Indianapolis 17
Tampa Bay 9/18/14 7:25 PM
Atlanta
San Diego 9/21/14 12:00 PM
Buffalo
Dallas 9/21/14 12:00 PM
St. Louis
Washington 9/21/14 12:00 PM
Philadelphia
Houston 9/21/14 12:00 PM
NY Giants
Minnesota 9/21/14 12:00 PM
New Orleans
Tennessee 9/21/14 12:00 PM
Cincinnati
Baltimore 9/21/14 12:00 PM
Cleveland
Green Bay 9/21/14 12:00 PM
Detroit
Indianapolis 9/21/14 12:00 PM
Jacksonville
Oakland 9/21/14 12:00 PM
New England
San Francisco 9/21/14 3:05 PM
Arizona
Denver 9/21/14 3:25 PM
Seattle
Kansas City 9/21/14 3:25 PM
Miami
Pittsburgh 9/21/14 7:30 PM
Carolina
(5) Auburn 9/18/14 6:30 PM
(20) Kansas State
Connecticut 9/19/14 7:00 PM
So Florida
Old Dominion 9/20/14 11:00 AM
Rice
Troy 9/20/14 11:00 AM
(13) Georgia
Georgia Tech 9/20/14 11:00 AM
Virginia Tech
Eastern Mich 9/20/14 11:00 AM
(11) Michigan State
Iowa 9/20/14 11:00 AM
Pittsburgh
Bowling Green 9/20/14 11:00 AM
(19) Wisconsin
Maryland 9/20/14 11:30 AM
Syracuse
Tulane 9/20/14 11:30 AM
Duke
Hawaii 9/20/14 1:00 PM
Colorado
Marshall 9/20/14 1:00 PM
Akron
North Carolina 9/20/14 2:30 PM
East Carolina
Army 9/20/14 2:30 PM
Wake Forest
Virginia 9/20/14 2:30 PM
(21) BYU
(6) Texas A&M 9/20/14 2:30 PM
SMU
Rutgers 9/20/14 2:30 PM
Navy
Central Mich 9/20/14 2:30 PM
Kansas
Utah 9/20/14 2:30 PM
Michigan
Florida 9/20/14 2:30 PM
(3) Alabama
Louisville 9/20/14 2:30 PM
FIU
Fla Atlantic 9/20/14 3:00 PM
Wyoming
Indiana 9/20/14 3:00 PM
(18) Missouri
San Jose St 9/20/14 3:00 PM
Minnesota
Texas State 9/20/14 3:00 PM
Illinois
Massachusetts 9/20/14 3:00 PM
Penn State
Georgia State 9/20/14 5:00 PM
Washington
Appalachian St 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Southern Miss
Miss State 9/20/14 6:00 PM
(8) LSU
Northern Ill 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Arkansas
Middle Tennessee 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Memphis
Utah State 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Arkansas State
Miami-Ohio 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Cincinnati
Idaho 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Ohio U
Ball State 9/20/14 6:00 PM
Toledo
(14) So Carolina 9/20/14 6:30 PM
Vanderbilt
(4) Oklahoma 9/20/14 6:30 PM
West Virginia
Ga Southern 9/20/14 6:30 PM
South Alabama
UNLV 9/20/14 7:00 PM
Houston
(22) Clemson 9/20/14 7:00 PM
(1) Florida State
Miami-Florida 9/20/14 7:00 PM
(24) Nebraska
New Mexico 9/20/14 7:00 PM
New Mexico St
California 9/20/14 9:00 PM
Arizona
Louisiana 9/20/14 9:30 PM
Boise State
(2) Oregon 9/20/14 9:30 PM
Washington St
San Diego St 9/20/14 9:30 PM
Oregon State
Montreal 16 FINAL
Edmonton 33
Toronto 33 FINAL
Calgary 40
Winnipeg 9 FINAL
Brt Columbia 26
Saskatchewan 3 FINAL
Hamilton 28

ADVERTISEMENT

Advertisement
Golden Gavel by Star Tribune

Countdown to great deals

Bid Sept. 21-29

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

question of the day

Poll: How do you feel about the decision to reinstate Adrian Peterson?

Weekly Question

ADVERTISEMENT

Connect with twitterConnect with facebookConnect with Google+Connect with PinterestConnect with PinterestConnect with RssfeedConnect with email newsletters

ADVERTISEMENT

 
Close