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## Data model ranks Rubio, Love as the two worst qualifying players in NBA in 2012-13 season

Posted by: Michael Rand under Wolves news Updated: February 6, 2014 - 4:32 PM

A paper will be presented at the increasingly famous MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference later this month that summarizes methodology and early results from a new basketball statistic called Expected Possession Value.

One of the authors, Kirk Goldsberry, wrote about it on Grantland, and you can summarize it thusly: EPV seeks to place a value on every single movement of every single player every second they are on the court.

The abstract of the paper provides this:

"We propose a framework for using player-tracking data to assign a point value to each moment of a possession by computing how many points the offense is expected to score by the end of the possession, a quantity we call expected possession value (EPV). EPV allows analysts to evaluate every decision made during a  basketball game – whether it is to pass, dribble, or shoot – opening the door for a multitude of new metrics and analyses of basketball that quantify value in terms of points."

It is somewhere between fascinating and terrifying. We plan to write a little more about it for print tomorrow. Basically, as Goldsberry writes, "For years, we have talked about 'advanced stats' when what we were really talking about was slightly savvier arithmetic. That’s going to change, whether we want it to or not."

This could be the next revolution, and as it pertains to the 2012-13 Timberwolves and their two core players going forward, it is not pretty.

The number assigned to EPVA (EPV Added) amounts to the number of "points added" by a particular player in relation to an average player, as defined by what they do every time they touch the ball. Chris Paul has the best number, at 3.48. That means by being Chris Paul instead of an average player, he adds 3.48 points per game.

There were 327 players last season who had the requisite number of "qualifying possessions" to be charted. The player with the worst EPVA of those 327 was Ricky Rubio, at minus-3.33. The player with the second-worst EPVA was Kevin Love, at minus-2.38. (The top 10 and bottom 10 are located in one of the "tables" in that link.

Some other players we consider to be very good -- Russell Westbrook and Paul George among them -- were also in the bottom 10. And let's remember that Love had a largely ineffective and injury-marred season and is almost certainly much better in that number this year. As for Rubio? Well, as Goldsberry writes:

Rubio owes most of his “points lost” to his unfortunate shooting skills. Relative to league averages, he struggles to make shots in every part of the scoring area. In terms of EPV “over replacement,” almost every jumper Rubio decides to take is a proposition less valuable than if almost any other similar player took that exact same shot.

Goldsberry doesn't claim EPV is the end-all, be-all statistic. Rather, he comes from a point of curiosity and love of data -- and he asserts that the contribution of EPV "remains unknown." We encourage you to read the entire Grantland piece if this all interests you.

But the methodology and sheer data involved are frightening in both scope and what they could mean for the Wolves' point guard.

older post

### TFD: Updated mock drafts from Kiper, McShay -- one has Vikings taking QB

 NY Mets - LP: J. Familia 6 FINAL Miami - WP: A. Ramos 9
 Philadelphia - WP: C. Hamels 7 FINAL Atlanta - LP: J. Teheran 0
 Boston - LP: B. Badenhop 3 FINAL Tampa Bay - WP: G. Balfour 4
 Minnesota - WP: P. Hughes 6 FINAL Baltimore - LP: K. Gausman 4
 Pittsburgh - LP: G. Cole 4 FINAL St. Louis - WP: S. Maness 5
 Milwaukee - LP: J. Nelson 2 FINAL Chicago Cubs - WP: J. Turner 4
 Detroit - WP: D. Price 12 FINAL Cleveland - LP: C. Kluber 1
 Seattle - LP: C. Young 1 FINAL Oakland - WP: J. Hammel 6
 San Francisco - WP: J. Affeldt 4 FINAL Colorado - LP: C. Friedrich 2
 Arizona - LP: T. Cahill 1 FINAL San Diego - WP: T. Ross 3
 San Francisco - LP: S. Romo 9 FINAL Colorado - WP: L. Hawkins 10
 Washington - WP: G. Gonzalez 6 FINAL Los Angeles - LP: R. Hernandez 4
 Texas - LP: C. Lewis 3 FINAL Kansas City - WP: Y. Ventura 4
 Green Bay 9/4/14 7:30 PM Seattle
 Buffalo 9/7/14 12:00 PM Chicago
 New Orleans 9/7/14 12:00 PM Atlanta
 Minnesota 9/7/14 12:00 PM St. Louis
 Cleveland 9/7/14 12:00 PM Pittsburgh
 Oakland 9/7/14 12:00 PM NY Jets
 Cincinnati 9/7/14 12:00 PM Baltimore
 Washington 9/7/14 12:00 PM Houston
 Tennessee 9/7/14 12:00 PM Kansas City
 New England 9/7/14 12:00 PM Miami
 Carolina 9/7/14 3:25 PM Tampa Bay
 San Francisco 9/7/14 3:25 PM Dallas
 Indianapolis 9/7/14 7:30 PM Denver
 Utah State 7 FINAL Tennessee 38
 SMU 0 FINAL (10) Baylor 45
 Miami-Florida 13 FINAL Louisville 31
 Arizona 9/4/14 7:00 PM TX-San Antonio
 Pittsburgh 9/5/14 6:00 PM Boston College
 Washington St 9/5/14 9:30 PM Nevada
 SMU 9/6/14 11:00 AM North Texas
 Fla Atlantic 9/6/14 11:00 AM (2) Alabama
 Buffalo 9/6/14 11:00 AM Army
 (24) Missouri 9/6/14 11:00 AM Toledo
 Arkansas State 9/6/14 11:00 AM Tennessee
 (7) McNeese State 9/6/14 11:00 AM (22) Nebraska
 Central Mich 9/6/14 11:00 AM Purdue
 Akron 9/6/14 11:00 AM Penn State
 Western Ill 9/6/14 11:00 AM (14) Wisconsin
 (20) Kansas State 9/6/14 11:00 AM Iowa State
 (4) Oklahoma 9/6/14 11:00 AM Tulsa
 Western Ky 9/6/14 11:00 AM Illinois
 SC State 9/6/14 11:30 AM (16) Clemson
 Navy 9/6/14 12:00 PM Temple
 UAB 9/6/14 1:00 PM Miss State
 South Alabama 9/6/14 1:00 PM Kent State
 New Mexico St 9/6/14 1:00 PM Georgia State
 Fresno State 9/6/14 2:00 PM Utah
 (2) Eastern Wash 9/6/14 2:00 PM (25) Washington
 (15) USC 9/6/14 2:30 PM (11) Stanford
 Ohio U 9/6/14 2:30 PM Kentucky
 Middle Tennessee 9/6/14 2:30 PM Minnesota
 Northern Ill 9/6/14 2:30 PM Northwestern
 Missouri State 9/6/14 2:30 PM Oklahoma State
 Ball State 9/6/14 2:30 PM Iowa
 Maryland 9/6/14 2:30 PM So Florida
 Eastern Mich 9/6/14 3:00 PM Florida
 Georgia Tech 9/6/14 3:00 PM Tulane
 (18) Ole Miss 9/6/14 3:30 PM Vanderbilt
 Old Dominion 9/6/14 5:00 PM NC State
 (8) Michigan State 9/6/14 5:30 PM (3) Oregon
 (19) Arizona State 9/6/14 6:00 PM New Mexico
 Louisiana Tech 9/6/14 6:00 PM Louisiana
 San Jose St 9/6/14 6:00 PM (6) Auburn
 East Carolina 9/6/14 6:00 PM (9) So Carolina
 Duke 9/6/14 6:00 PM Troy
 Idaho 9/6/14 6:00 PM ULM
 (15) Sam Houston St 9/6/14 6:30 PM (13) LSU
 Michigan 9/6/14 6:30 PM (17) Notre Dame
 Lamar 9/6/14 6:30 PM (21) Texas A&M
 Northwestern St 9/6/14 6:30 PM (10) Baylor
 BYU 9/6/14 6:30 PM Texas
 Citadel 9/6/14 6:30 PM (1) Florida State
 San Diego St 9/6/14 7:00 PM (23) North Carolina
 Virginia Tech 9/6/14 7:00 PM (5) Ohio State
 Memphis 9/6/14 9:00 PM (7) UCLA
 Colorado State 9/6/14 9:15 PM Boise State
 Air Force 9/6/14 9:15 PM Wyoming
 Oregon State 9/6/14 9:30 PM Hawaii
 Texas Tech 9/6/14 10:00 PM Texas-El Paso
 Brt Columbia 9/5/14 6:30 PM Ottawa
 Calgary 9/6/14 6:00 PM Edmonton
 Hamilton 9/7/14 12:00 PM Montreal
 Indiana 84 FINAL Chicago 86

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