Johnny Love's Kentucky Derby picks

  • Updated: May 3, 2013 - 4:44 PM

There is no better race to bet on than the Kentucky Derby whether you’re a horseplayer or not. Average odds of the winners have been around 15-1 in the last 20 years, so you don’t need to have a big bankroll to have some fun.

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There is no better race to bet on than the Kentucky Derby whether you’re a horseplayer or not. Average odds of the winners have been around 15-1 in the last 20 years so you don’t need to have a big bankroll to have some fun and bet a few bucks on a plethora of price horses.

Look at last year’s winner, “I’ll Have Another,” who paid $32.60 on a winning $2 ticket, and let's face it, most winners only bet on him because of his name and yet, it had nothing to do with drinking, folks.

This year’s field for the most part is slow with only 4 runners who have ran 100 plus speed figures, so I’m looking for a horse who has shown early speed and is versatile enough to maneuver through traffic and tough enough to run in a stampede towards the finish line.

There is also a 60 percent chance of rain, so add that to all the obstacles and factors of winning this race.

My top five selections have been improving each race leading up to today and have been training and looking great this past week. Place your bets on a horse with a groovy name or your favorite number, it doesn’t matter whatever your reason is for your selection. It’s all about having fun and maybe cashing in a nice ticket on the first Saturday in May.

ORB

Orb is the deserving favorite who just gets better each race, probably trained the best of the field this past week, and gets the top jockey in America with Joel Rosario. He’s versatile enough to sit midpack with tactical speed coming from the 16 hole while staying out of congestion problems to the inside. Look for Rosario to have this 3 year old close to the front with two furlongs to go before attacking down the stretch. I also give him a experience edge with three wins under his belt at two turns.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY

Ran second to Orb last time out as the favorite in the Florida Derby but was coming off a 8 week layoff. He has looked spectacular this week in training and appearance and been getting a lot of attention from morning clockers. His previous two wins were top notch posting speed figures of over a 100, so could prove extremely tough if returns to that form at a very nice price but don’t expect getting the 15-1 morning line.

REVOLUTIONARY

Another tough and versatile horse who probably has posted the toughest wins in this field while overcoming many obstacles that would of stopped many runners from even hitting the board. He’ll go inside to the rail with Calvin Borel at the helm starting from post 3 and work his way to the front zig zagging or going through horses if he has too. A horse you have to admire for his grit and one you have to respect at a nice price. Some handicappers have selected him as top choice.

GOLDENCENTS

Many don’t like this runner from California cause they don’t feel he can run the distance and that he ran his best race last out. I think he has a great chance of duplicating that performance. He posted a 105 speed figure winning the Santa Anita Derby and has natural speed to set the pace or layoff drafting from the second position behind the pace setter. Trainer O’Neill won this race last year and jockey Kevin Krigger doesn’t lack confidence, making this trainer/jockey duo dangerous.

MYLUTE

Mylute ran second to Revolutionary last out in the Louisiana Derby losing by a neck but did galloped out stronger than the winner. Deep closer has been training extremely well and gets jockey Rosie Napravnik as the pilot who has been cranking out wins this year.

Betting Strategies:

$8 Exacta Wheel : (16 w/3,5,6,8,9,12,14,17,19,) $72

$4 Exacta Wheel : (3,5,6,8,9,12,14,17,19,w/16,) $36 Total $108.00

For a list of horses by post position, go here.

Follow Star Tribune handicapper Johnny Love at www.exoticplays.com and on Twitter @StribLove

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Golden State 7:00 PM
Cleveland
Oklahoma City 9:30 PM
Phoenix
Vancouver 1 1st Prd 5:23
Buffalo 1
Arizona 1 1st Prd 5:30
NY Rangers 1
Montreal 3 1st Prd 4:18
Columbus 1
Philadelphia 6:30 PM
Toronto
Chicago 6:30 PM
Florida
St. Louis 7:00 PM
Winnipeg
Minnesota 7:30 PM
Nashville
Ottawa 9:30 PM
Los Angeles
Detroit 9:30 PM
San Jose
Northern Ky 78 FINAL
Kennesaw St 53
East Tenn St 56 2nd Half 6:50
Citadel 61
Winthrop 21 1st Half 4:53
Campbell 20
Delaware 24 1st Half 6:36
Drexel 17
Jacksonville St 21 1st Half 2:58
Eastern Ky 27
Northeastern 21 1st Half 4:25
Elon 23
Sacred Heart 31 1st Half 5:11
Fair-Dickinson 34
Western Carolina 24 1st Half 4:45
Furman 15
Char Southern 22 1st Half 7:59
Gardner-Webb 28
Western Ill 21 1st Half 7:41
IUPUI 23
Nebraska Omaha 18 1st Half 7:54
IUPU-Ft Wayne 22
Radford 14 1st Half 7:48
Liberty 24
St Francis-NY 16 1st Half 7:54
Long Island 22
Wofford 27 1st Half 3:05
Mercer 20
Minnesota 19 1st Half 8:37
Michigan State 27
High Point 33 1st Half 5:19
UNC-Asheville 29
Samford 22 1st Half 7:59
UNC Greensboro 24
Nebraska 15 1st Half 4:04
Ohio State 35
Wagner 22 1st Half 6:00
Robert Morris 30
Mount St Marys 12 1st Half 7:40
St Francis-PA 22
Houston 31 1st Half 5:19
Temple 26
Vanderbilt 19 1st Half 5:05
Tennessee 21
Chattanooga 28 1st Half 6:32
Va Military 29
Milwaukee 24 1st Half 6:50
Wright State 20
Coastal Carolina 18 1st Half 7:40
Presbyterian 18
Central Conn St 23 1st Half 5:30
Bryant 21
Ga Southern 6:30 PM
Appalachian St
SIU Edwardsville 7:00 PM
Austin Peay
Green Bay 7:00 PM
Ill-Chicago
Texas-El Paso 7:00 PM
Louisiana Tech
FIU 7:00 PM
Marshall
Rider 7:00 PM
Monmouth
Eastern Ill 7:00 PM
Murray State
Charlotte 7:00 PM
North Texas
North Dakota St 7:00 PM
Oral Roberts
Old Dominion 7:00 PM
Rice
TX-San Antonio 7:00 PM
Southern Miss
UT Martin 7:00 PM
Tennessee St
Fla Atlantic 7:00 PM
Western Ky
Northern Ariz 7:00 PM
North Dakota
Grand Canyon 7:05 PM
Chicago State
Utah Valley U 7:05 PM
UMKC
ULM 7:05 PM
South Alabama
Texas-Arlington 7:30 PM
Arkansas State
Georgia State 7:30 PM
Ark-Little Rock
Troy 7:30 PM
Texas State
Arizona 8:00 PM
Colorado
SMU 8:00 PM
Memphis
Tenn Tech 8:00 PM
Morehead State
Rutgers 8:00 PM
Purdue
Southern Utah 8:00 PM
Northern Colorado
Montana State 8:05 PM
Eastern Wash
UC Davis 9:00 PM
UC Santa Barbara
UC Irvine 9:00 PM
Cal Poly
Cal State Fullerton 9:00 PM
CS-Northridge
Montana 9:00 PM
Idaho
BYU 9:00 PM
Portland
Pacific 9:00 PM
Santa Clara
Arizona State 9:30 PM
Utah
San Diego 10:00 PM
Gonzaga
St Marys-CA 10:00 PM
San Francisco
Oregon State 10:00 PM
Stanford
Long Beach State 10:59 PM
Hawaii
Rice 68 FINAL
Old Dominion 83
Georgia Southern 39 FINAL
Appalachian St 66
Manhattan 67 FINAL
Monmouth 84
Marshall 74 FINAL
FIU 50
TX-Arlington 52 2nd Half 7:01
Arkansas State 54
ULM 35 2nd Half 7:18
South Alabama 30
Georgia State 31 2nd Half
Ark-Little Rock 33
Troy 43 2nd Half 18:35
Texas State 33
LSU 11 1st Half 8:34
Ole Miss 17
(11) Miss State 10 1st Half 8:22
(2) South Carolina 17
North Texas 17 1st Half 9:10
Charlotte 24
Western Ky 23 1st Half 9:03
Florida Atlantic 14
William & Mary 33 1st Half 5:26
Coll of Charleston 26
Delaware 22 1st Half 4:42
UNC-Wilmington 16
UMBC 10 1st Half 6:51
Maine 24
UMass Lowell 27 1st Half 3:57
Vermont 23
Albany 23 1st Half 4:02
Hartford 14
Stony Brook 12 1st Half 7:57
Binghamton 15
Boston College 9 1st Half 10:30
(8) Louisville 22
(23) Syracuse 17 1st Half 10:20
Clemson 13
(16) Duke 13 1st Half 7:50
Georgia Tech 25
Florida 18 1st Half 6:34
Alabama 15
NC State 18 1st Half 6:57
(9) Florida State 28
Miami-Florida 26 1st Half 5:03
Wake Forest 29
Fairfield 27 1st Half 5:40
Iona 17
Marist 21 1st Half 4:54
Saint Peters 19
Quinnipiac 27 1st Half 8:33
Rider 7
Virginia 18 1st Half 7:47
(15) North Carolina 19
Pittsburgh 19 1st Half 6:22
(4) Notre Dame 34
Ohio State 27 1st Half 5:21
Penn State 24
Indiana 25 1st Half 4:51
(5) Maryland 36
Massachusetts 18 1st Half 7:53
Dayton 26
(22) George Washington 25 1st Half 7:24
Richmond 22
Saint Louis 8 1st Half 6:21
Rhode Island 31
Wright State 28 1st Half 4:56
Detroit 24
Green Bay 33 1st Half 4:14
Oakland 15
Central Arkansas 6:30 PM
Sam Houston St
SE Louisiana 6:30 PM
Northwestern St
Missouri 7:00 PM
(12) Texas A&M
Denver 7:00 PM
No Dakota State
IUPU-Ft Wayne 7:00 PM
Nebraska Omaha
IUPUI 7:00 PM
South Dakota
Lamar 7:00 PM
McNeese State
Incarnate Word 7:00 PM
Stephen F Austin
Nicholls 7:00 PM
New Orleans
Western Ill 7:00 PM
South Dakota St
Southern Miss 7:00 PM
TX-San Antonio
(13) Kentucky 7:00 PM
Arkansas
Wisconsin 7:00 PM
(17) Iowa
(20) Rutgers 7:00 PM
(25) Northwestern
North Dakota 7:30 PM
Northern Ariz
(24) California 8:00 PM
Oregon
(19) Stanford 8:00 PM
(7) Oregon State
USC 8:00 PM
Washington
Portland 8:00 PM
BYU
Gonzaga 8:00 PM
San Diego
San Francisco 8:00 PM
St Marys-CA
Northern Colorado 8:00 PM
Southern Utah
Auburn 8:00 PM
Vanderbilt
(6) Tennessee 8:00 PM
Georgia
Chicago State 8:00 PM
Grand Canyon
UMKC 8:00 PM
Utah Valley U
Eastern Washington 8:00 PM
Montana State
Idaho 8:00 PM
Montana
Louisiana Tech 0 Postponed
Texas-El Paso 0
UCLA 9:00 PM
Washington St
Santa Clara 9:00 PM
Pacific
CS-Northridge 9:00 PM
Cal State Fullerton
UC Santa Barbara 9:00 PM
Cal-Irvine
Hawaii 9:00 PM
Long Beach St
Cal Poly 9:00 PM
UC Davis

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