Johnny Love's Kentucky Derby picks

  • Updated: May 3, 2013 - 4:44 PM

There is no better race to bet on than the Kentucky Derby whether you’re a horseplayer or not. Average odds of the winners have been around 15-1 in the last 20 years, so you don’t need to have a big bankroll to have some fun.

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Orb

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There is no better race to bet on than the Kentucky Derby whether you’re a horseplayer or not. Average odds of the winners have been around 15-1 in the last 20 years so you don’t need to have a big bankroll to have some fun and bet a few bucks on a plethora of price horses.

Look at last year’s winner, “I’ll Have Another,” who paid $32.60 on a winning $2 ticket, and let's face it, most winners only bet on him because of his name and yet, it had nothing to do with drinking, folks.

This year’s field for the most part is slow with only 4 runners who have ran 100 plus speed figures, so I’m looking for a horse who has shown early speed and is versatile enough to maneuver through traffic and tough enough to run in a stampede towards the finish line.

There is also a 60 percent chance of rain, so add that to all the obstacles and factors of winning this race.

My top five selections have been improving each race leading up to today and have been training and looking great this past week. Place your bets on a horse with a groovy name or your favorite number, it doesn’t matter whatever your reason is for your selection. It’s all about having fun and maybe cashing in a nice ticket on the first Saturday in May.

ORB

Orb is the deserving favorite who just gets better each race, probably trained the best of the field this past week, and gets the top jockey in America with Joel Rosario. He’s versatile enough to sit midpack with tactical speed coming from the 16 hole while staying out of congestion problems to the inside. Look for Rosario to have this 3 year old close to the front with two furlongs to go before attacking down the stretch. I also give him a experience edge with three wins under his belt at two turns.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY

Ran second to Orb last time out as the favorite in the Florida Derby but was coming off a 8 week layoff. He has looked spectacular this week in training and appearance and been getting a lot of attention from morning clockers. His previous two wins were top notch posting speed figures of over a 100, so could prove extremely tough if returns to that form at a very nice price but don’t expect getting the 15-1 morning line.

REVOLUTIONARY

Another tough and versatile horse who probably has posted the toughest wins in this field while overcoming many obstacles that would of stopped many runners from even hitting the board. He’ll go inside to the rail with Calvin Borel at the helm starting from post 3 and work his way to the front zig zagging or going through horses if he has too. A horse you have to admire for his grit and one you have to respect at a nice price. Some handicappers have selected him as top choice.

GOLDENCENTS

Many don’t like this runner from California cause they don’t feel he can run the distance and that he ran his best race last out. I think he has a great chance of duplicating that performance. He posted a 105 speed figure winning the Santa Anita Derby and has natural speed to set the pace or layoff drafting from the second position behind the pace setter. Trainer O’Neill won this race last year and jockey Kevin Krigger doesn’t lack confidence, making this trainer/jockey duo dangerous.

MYLUTE

Mylute ran second to Revolutionary last out in the Louisiana Derby losing by a neck but did galloped out stronger than the winner. Deep closer has been training extremely well and gets jockey Rosie Napravnik as the pilot who has been cranking out wins this year.

Betting Strategies:

$8 Exacta Wheel : (16 w/3,5,6,8,9,12,14,17,19,) $72

$4 Exacta Wheel : (3,5,6,8,9,12,14,17,19,w/16,) $36 Total $108.00

For a list of horses by post position, go here.

Follow Star Tribune handicapper Johnny Love at www.exoticplays.com and on Twitter @StribLove

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NY Yankees 0 Top 4th Inning
Toronto 2
Detroit 3 Bottom 3rd Inning
Chicago WSox 1
Chicago Cubs - F. Doubront 1:15 PM
St. Louis - J. Masterson
Cincinnati - A. Simon 3:05 PM
Pittsburgh - V. Worley
Minnesota - K. Gibson 6:05 PM
Baltimore - C. Tillman
Philadelphia - J. Williams 6:10 PM
NY Mets - B. Colon
Miami - J. Cosart 6:10 PM
Atlanta - A. Harang
Boston - A. Webster 6:10 PM
Tampa Bay - J. Odorizzi
Cleveland - T. Bauer 6:10 PM
Kansas City - J. Shields
Detroit - K. Ryan 6:10 PM
Chicago WSox - C. Bassitt
Texas - R. Ross Jr. 6:10 PM
Houston - S. Feldman
Colorado - T. Matzek 7:10 PM
Arizona - V. Nuno
Chicago Cubs - T. Wada 7:15 PM
St. Louis - M. Gonzales
Los Angeles - Z. Greinke 7:40 PM
San Diego - I. Kennedy
Milwaukee - M. Fiers 8:05 PM
San Francisco - J. Peavy
Oakland - J. Samardzija 8:05 PM
LA Angels - C. Rasmus
Washington - S. Strasburg 8:10 PM
Seattle - R. Elias
Green Bay 9/4/14 7:30 PM
Seattle
BYU 35 FINAL
Connecticut 10
(6) Jacksonville St 7 FINAL
(8) Michigan State 45
Bowling Green 31 FINAL
Western Ky 59
TX-San Antonio 27 FINAL
Houston 7
Colorado State 31 FINAL
Colorado 17
UNLV 13 FINAL
Arizona 58
Penn State 26 FINAL
UCF 24
Troy 10 3rd Qtr 14:33
UAB 24
(7) UCLA 21 3rd Qtr 12:53
Virginia 10
Western Mich 14 3rd Qtr
Purdue 23
(5) Ohio State 13 3rd Qtr 13:08
Navy 7
Appalachian St 0 3rd Qtr 12:06
Michigan 35
Ga Southern 17 3rd Qtr
NC State 3
Boston College 2:00 PM
Massachusetts
West Virginia 2:30 PM
(2) Alabama
Rice 2:30 PM
(17) Notre Dame
(10) South Dakota St 2:30 PM
(24) Missouri
Fla Atlantic 2:30 PM
(22) Nebraska
California 2:30 PM
Northwestern
Marshall 2:30 PM
Miami-Ohio
UC Davis 3:00 PM
(11) Stanford
Arkansas 3:00 PM
(6) Auburn
(16) Clemson 4:30 PM
(12) Georgia
Liberty 5:00 PM
(23) North Carolina
Ohio U 5:00 PM
Kent State
Louisiana Tech 6:00 PM
(4) Oklahoma
Idaho 6:00 PM
Florida
Stephen F Austin 6:10 PM
(20) Kansas State
Fresno State 6:30 PM
(15) USC
Southern Miss 6:30 PM
Miss State
Texas-El Paso 7:00 PM
New Mexico
North Texas 7:00 PM
Texas
(1) Florida State 7:00 PM
Oklahoma State
(14) Wisconsin 8:00 PM
(13) LSU
South Dakota 9:30 PM
(3) Oregon
(25) Washington 9:30 PM
Hawaii
Utah State 8/31/14 6:00 PM
Tennessee
SMU 8/31/14 6:30 PM
(10) Baylor
Miami-Florida 9/1/14 7:00 PM
Louisville
Arizona 9/4/14 7:00 PM
TX-San Antonio
Pittsburgh 9/5/14 6:00 PM
Boston College
Washington St 9/5/14 9:30 PM
Nevada
SMU 9/6/14 11:00 AM
North Texas
Fla Atlantic 9/6/14 11:00 AM
(2) Alabama
Buffalo 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Army
(24) Missouri 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Toledo
Arkansas State 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Tennessee
(8) McNeese State 9/6/14 11:00 AM
(22) Nebraska
Central Mich 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Purdue
Akron 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Penn State
Western Ill 9/6/14 11:00 AM
(14) Wisconsin
(20) Kansas State 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Iowa State
(4) Oklahoma 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Tulsa
Western Ky 9/6/14 11:00 AM
Illinois
SC State 9/6/14 11:30 AM
(16) Clemson
Navy 9/6/14 12:00 PM
Temple
UAB 9/6/14 1:00 PM
Miss State
South Alabama 9/6/14 1:00 PM
Kent State
New Mexico St 9/6/14 1:00 PM
Georgia State
Colorado 9/6/14 2:00 PM
Massachusetts
Fresno State 9/6/14 2:00 PM
Utah
(1) Eastern Wash 9/6/14 2:00 PM
(25) Washington
(15) USC 9/6/14 2:30 PM
(11) Stanford
Ohio U 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Kentucky
Middle Tennessee 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Minnesota
Northern Ill 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Northwestern
Missouri State 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Oklahoma State
Ball State 9/6/14 2:30 PM
Iowa
Maryland 9/6/14 2:30 PM
So Florida
Eastern Mich 9/6/14 3:00 PM
Florida
Georgia Tech 9/6/14 3:00 PM
Tulane
(18) Ole Miss 9/6/14 3:30 PM
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion 9/6/14 5:00 PM
NC State
(8) Michigan State 9/6/14 5:30 PM
(3) Oregon
(19) Arizona State 9/6/14 6:00 PM
New Mexico
Louisiana Tech 9/6/14 6:00 PM
Louisiana
San Jose St 9/6/14 6:00 PM
(6) Auburn
East Carolina 9/6/14 6:00 PM
(9) So Carolina
Duke 9/6/14 6:00 PM
Troy
Idaho 9/6/14 6:00 PM
ULM
(17) Sam Houston St 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(13) LSU
Michigan 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(17) Notre Dame
Lamar 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(21) Texas A&M
Northwestern St 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(10) Baylor
BYU 9/6/14 6:30 PM
Texas
Citadel 9/6/14 6:30 PM
(1) Florida State
San Diego St 9/6/14 7:00 PM
(23) North Carolina
Virginia Tech 9/6/14 7:00 PM
(5) Ohio State
Memphis 9/6/14 9:00 PM
(7) UCLA
Colorado State 9/6/14 9:15 PM
Boise State
Air Force 9/6/14 9:15 PM
Wyoming
Oregon State 9/6/14 9:30 PM
Hawaii
Texas Tech 9/6/14 10:00 PM
Texas-El Paso
Colorado 3:00 PM
Seattle
New England 4:00 PM
Toronto FC
Columbus 6:30 PM
Montreal
FC Dallas 7:30 PM
Chicago
Real Salt Lake 9:30 PM
San Jose
Portland 9:30 PM
Vancouver FC
Ottawa 10 FINAL
Montreal 20
Winnipeg 8/31/14 3:00 PM
Saskatchewan
Toronto 9/1/14 12:00 PM
Hamilton
Edmonton 9/1/14 3:30 PM
Calgary
Brt Columbia 9/5/14 6:30 PM
Ottawa
Calgary 9/6/14 6:00 PM
Edmonton
Hamilton 9/7/14 12:00 PM
Montreal
Saskatchewan 9/7/14 3:00 PM
Winnipeg
Chicago 6:00 PM
Indiana

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